Passing
ARST offense
Higher-ranked profile
- ARST offense
- #70
- UL defense
- #93
EPA comparison
0.23
#70
0.22
#93
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 8:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
ARST 24.9%75.1% UL
- Projected margin
- UL by 9.9
- Projected total
- 50
- 80% outcome range
- ARST 9 to UL 31
- Win probability
- UL 75.1%
FinalARST 20 · UL 23model had +9.9, off by 6.9
Current team profiles
Arkansas State
LouisianaWhen Arkansas State has the ball
Rushing
UL defense
Higher-ranked profile
- ARST offense
- #39
- UL defense
- #7
EPA comparison
0.18
#39
-0.20
#7
Rush EPA
Drive success
ARST offense
Higher-ranked profile
- ARST offense
- #13
- UL defense
- #94
Success rates
50%
#13
42%
#94
Success rate
More metrics
0.18
#59
-0.04
#27
EPA / play
1.16
#103
1.10
#20
Explosiveness
14%
#66
18%
#39
Havoc
When Louisiana has the ball
Passing
UL offense
Higher-ranked profile
- ARST defense
- #135
- UL offense
- #62
EPA comparison
0.46
#135
0.25
#62
Pass EPA
Rushing
UL offense
Higher-ranked profile
- ARST defense
- #102
- UL offense
- #45
EPA comparison
0.13
#102
0.16
#45
Rush EPA
Drive success
UL offense
Higher-ranked profile
- ARST defense
- #129
- UL offense
- #68
Success rates
47%
#129
44%
#68
Success rate
More metrics
0.21
#123
0.15
#70
EPA / play
1.20
#63
1.19
#95
Explosiveness
11%
#132
14%
#52
Havoc
Current key players
Arkansas StateQBTrey Owens
1043 yds · 5 TD · 4 INT
77.596/729
LBKam Moore
23 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 86.2
- Coverage
- 72.3
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 4
- Missed tackles
- 3
- Forced fumbles
- 0
85.234/1796
LBRobert Stevens
25 tkl · 3.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 73.9
- Coverage
- 89.5
- Pressures
- 3
- Pass-rush snaps
- 17
- Missed tackles
- 6
- Forced fumbles
- 1
84.940/1796
SBrandon Greil
16 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 81.5
- Coverage
- 77.3
- Targets allowed
- 7
- Rec allowed
- 6
- Yards allowed
- 54
- Passer rating allowed
- 59.2
- Missed tackles
- 3
80.458/2969
CBNoah Flores
12 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 58.2
- Coverage
- 81.9
- Targets allowed
- 7
- Rec allowed
- 4
- Yards allowed
- 108
- Passer rating allowed
- 101.8
- Missed tackles
- 3
78.097/2969
RBJames Lee
123 yds · 0 TD · 7.2 YPC
75.5170/1044
Availability reports · 1
- Devin Spencer · RBout · 2026-08-17
Spencer is dealing with a knee injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.
LouisianaQBLunch Winfield
849 yds · 2 TD · 2 INT
89.726/729
CBBrent Gordon Jr.
30 tkl · 5 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 79.8
- Coverage
- 90.0
- Targets allowed
- 29
- Rec allowed
- 16
- Yards allowed
- 157
- Passer rating allowed
- 64.9
- Missed tackles
- 6
90.010/2969
CBCam Riley
0 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 60.0
- Coverage
- 79.1
- Targets allowed
- 1
- Rec allowed
- 0
- Yards allowed
- 0
- Passer rating allowed
- 39.6
- Missed tackles
- 0
79.570/2969
SLake Bates
8 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 62.6
- Coverage
- 77.6
- Targets allowed
- 2
- Rec allowed
- 0
- Yards allowed
- 0
- Passer rating allowed
- 39.6
- Missed tackles
- 2
77.2117/2969
LBLester Jones
2 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 53.4
- Coverage
- 48.2
- Pressures
- 4
- Pass-rush snaps
- 27
- Missed tackles
- 1
- Forced fumbles
- 0
75.5169/1796
RBAnthony Reagan Jr.
160 yds · 2 TD · 4.1 YPC
75.2175/1044
Availability reports · 3
- Darrell Smith · RBout · 2026-10-07
Smith is fighting off an undisclosed injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season.
- Ja'Corian Norris · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Norris is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined whether he will suit up against Trojans on Saturday, October 17th.
- Jerry Birdlow · TEQues. · 2026-10-11
Birdlow is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Trojans on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
ARSTArkansas State
ULLouisiana
vs
Offense
77.5
#73 of 138
QB
Quarterback
89.7
#25 of 138
74.5
#77 of 138
RB
Running backs
73.6
#90 of 138
72.0
#61 of 138
WR
Receivers
69.0
#93 of 138
67.0
#82 of 138
TE
Tight ends
71.5
#54 of 138
71.0
#46 of 138
OL
Offensive line
61.4
#124 of 138
Defense
72.6
#77 of 138
DL
Defensive line
66.1
#133 of 138
77.9
#37 of 138
LB
Linebackers
70.2
#104 of 138
76.6
#21 of 138
DB
Secondary
78.5
#7 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Arkansas State
opponent
Louisiana
Hhome-7.0
USASouth Alabama#96+4.0Hhome
Aaway+1.6
CCUCoastal Carolina#127+12.1Hhome
Hhome+3.7
TROYTroy#111+8.8Hhome
Aaway-2.0
USMSouthern Miss#139+3.1Aaway
Aaway-3.9
LTLouisiana Tech#87-1.0Aaway
Hhome-0.5
GASTGeorgia State#81-0.7Aaway
Hhome+15.5
ULMUL Monroe#163+15.3Aaway