AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#104Away
Arkansas State
0-0 · AVR 38.8
24p
#99Home
Louisiana
0-0 · AVR 40.0
30p
ARST 34%66% UL
Spread
UL -6.2
Total
55
Moneyline
ARST+195UL-195
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ARST advantageevenUL advantage →
ARST throw
UL pass rush #152
even
ARST run
ARST backs #67
ARST +21
UL throw
even
UL run
UL +8

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UL throws
Shelton Sampson Jr.
vs
Five Hamilton
X · UL
CB1 · ARST
74.3
67.8
UL +7
off the edge· hunting Winfield
J'Marion Gooch
vs
Shakai Woods
LT · UL
EDGE · ARST
40.5
84.8
ARST +44
when ARST throws
Chauncy Cobb
vs
Brent Gordon Jr.
X · ARST
CB1 · UL
45.7
71.4
UL +26
when ARST runs
Kenyon Clay
vs
Conor McPherson
RB · ARST
MLB · UL
59.4
54.2
ARST +5
over the middle
Brock Chappell
vs
Joe Drew
TE · UL
FS · ARST
43.3
59.0
ARST +16
when UL runs
Darrell Smith
vs
Nigel Nelson
RB · UL
MLB · ARST
45.8
51.6
ARST +6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Arkansas State
SFive Hamilton
67.8286/1427
CBNoah Flores
66.7315/1427
CBJaylen Heyward
65.2351/1427
RBKenyon Clay
59.4117/514
QBDrew Dickey
55.395/308
LBNigel Nelson
51.6446/878

also out — D. Spencer (RB)

Louisiana
WRShelton Sampson Jr.
74.335/777
CBBrent Gordon Jr.
71.4207/1427
SCollin Jacob
60.3473/1427
SMaurion Eleam
59.4497/1427
LBConor McPherson
54.2404/878
QBLunch Winfield
52.2133/308

Common opponents

7 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Arkansas State
opponent
Louisiana
away+4.5
Coastal Carolina#126
+13.2home
away-4.3
Louisiana Tech#94
-0.6away
home+0.8
Troy#95
+4.4home
home+0.1
South Alabama#100
+3.7home
away-4.1
Southern Miss#93
-0.5away
home+12.7
UL Monroe#132
+11.3away
home+9.0
Georgia State#131
+7.7away

Projected margin

80% between -11 and 24
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUL +6.295% interval: -17.8 to 30.180% interval: -11.2 to 23.5-11+24ARST wins 34%UL wins 66%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UL 32–25 ARSTUL 28–49 ARST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUL 32–46 ARST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUL 35–42 ARST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUL 39–39 ARST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUL 42–35 ARST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUL 46–32 ARST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUL 49–28 ARST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUL 53–25 ARST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUL 56–21 ARST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUL 25–46 ARST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUL 28–42 ARST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUL 32–39 ARST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUL 35–35 ARST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUL 39–32 ARST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUL 42–28 ARST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUL 46–25 ARST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUL 49–21 ARST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUL 53–18 ARST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUL 21–42 ARST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUL 25–39 ARST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUL 28–35 ARST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUL 32–32 ARST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUL 35–28 ARST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUL 39–25 ARST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUL 42–21 ARST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUL 46–18 ARST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUL 49–14 ARST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUL 18–39 ARST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUL 21–35 ARST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUL 25–32 ARST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUL 28–28 ARST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUL 32–25 ARST neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUL 35–21 ARST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUL 39–18 ARST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUL 42–14 ARST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUL 46–11 ARST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUL 14–35 ARST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUL 18–32 ARST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUL 21–28 ARST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUL 25–25 ARST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUL 28–21 ARST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUL 32–18 ARST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUL 35–14 ARST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUL 39–11 ARST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUL 42–7 ARST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUL 11–32 ARST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUL 14–28 ARST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUL 18–25 ARST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUL 21–21 ARST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUL 25–18 ARST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUL 28–14 ARST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUL 32–11 ARST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUL 35–7 ARST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUL 39–4 ARST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUL 7–28 ARST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUL 11–25 ARST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUL 14–21 ARST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUL 18–18 ARST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUL 21–14 ARST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUL 25–11 ARST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUL 28–7 ARST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUL 32–4 ARST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUL 35–0 ARST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalARST +21ARST +7UL +7UL +21UL +35margin →