AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
#104Away
Arkansas State
0-0 · AVR 38.8
26p
#93Home
Southern Miss
0-0 · AVR 42.2
30p
ARST 39%61% USM
Spread
USM -4.1
Total
55
Moneyline
ARST+157USM-157
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ARST advantageevenUSM advantage →
ARST throw
USM +40
ARST run
ARST backs #67
USM +17
USM throw
ARST +10
USM run
USM +16

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when ARST throws
Chauncy Cobb
vs
Ishmael Ibraheem
X · ARST
CB1 · USM
45.7
95.9
USM +50
when ARST runs
Kenyon Clay
vs
Melvin Spriggs
RB · ARST
MLB · USM
59.4
70.3
USM +11
when USM throws
Mario Sanders
vs
Five Hamilton
X · USM
CB1 · ARST
52.8
67.8
ARST +15
when USM runs
Robert Briggs
vs
Nigel Nelson
RB · USM
MLB · ARST
52.7
51.6
dead even
off the edge· hunting Dickey
Aleric Watson
vs
Jameer Lewis
LT · ARST
EDGE · USM
27.1
72.6
USM +45
over the middle
Tyler Little
vs
MaLik Caswell
TE · ARST
FS · USM
38.4
60.1
USM +22

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Arkansas State
SFive Hamilton
67.8286/1427
CBNoah Flores
66.7315/1427
CBJaylen Heyward
65.2351/1427
RBKenyon Clay
59.4117/514
QBDrew Dickey
55.395/308
LBNigel Nelson
51.6446/878

also out — D. Spencer (RB)

Southern Miss
CBIshmael Ibraheem
95.94/1427
DBKolby Peavy
72.4184/1427
LBMelvin Spriggs
70.3140/878
DBCannon McClain
64.0385/1427
LBMathis Haygood
60.8270/878
SMaLik Caswell
60.1479/1427

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Arkansas State
opponent
Southern Miss
away-6.2
Louisiana#99
+0.5home
home+0.8
Troy#95
-2.6away
home+12.7
UL Monroe#132
+9.3away
home+0.1
South Alabama#100
+1.7home
away-4.3
Louisiana Tech#94
-2.7away

Projected margin

80% between -13 and 22
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUSM +4.195% interval: -19.8 to 2880% interval: -13.3 to 21.5-13+22ARST wins 39%USM wins 61%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ USM 32–25 ARSTUSM 28–49 ARST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSM 32–46 ARST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSM 35–42 ARST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSM 39–39 ARST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSM 42–35 ARST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSM 46–32 ARST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSM 49–28 ARST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSM 53–25 ARST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSM 56–21 ARST neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUSM 25–46 ARST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSM 28–42 ARST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSM 32–39 ARST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSM 35–35 ARST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSM 39–32 ARST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSM 42–28 ARST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSM 46–25 ARST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSM 49–21 ARST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSM 53–18 ARST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSM 21–42 ARST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSM 25–39 ARST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSM 28–35 ARST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSM 32–32 ARST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSM 35–28 ARST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSM 39–25 ARST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSM 42–21 ARST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSM 46–18 ARST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSM 49–14 ARST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSM 18–39 ARST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSM 21–35 ARST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSM 25–32 ARST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSM 28–28 ARST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSM 32–25 ARST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUSM 35–21 ARST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSM 39–18 ARST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSM 42–14 ARST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSM 46–11 ARST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSM 14–35 ARST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSM 18–32 ARST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSM 21–28 ARST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSM 25–25 ARST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSM 28–21 ARST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSM 32–18 ARST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSM 35–14 ARST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSM 39–11 ARST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSM 42–7 ARST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSM 11–32 ARST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSM 14–28 ARST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSM 18–25 ARST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSM 21–21 ARST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSM 25–18 ARST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSM 28–14 ARST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSM 32–11 ARST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSM 35–7 ARST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSM 39–4 ARST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSM 7–28 ARST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSM 11–25 ARST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSM 14–21 ARST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSM 18–18 ARST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSM 21–14 ARST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSM 25–11 ARST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSM 28–7 ARST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSM 32–4 ARST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSM 35–0 ARST neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalARST +21ARST +7USM +7USM +21USM +35margin →