Passing
ARST offense
Higher-ranked profile
- ARST offense
- #70
- USM defense
- #103
EPA comparison
0.23
#70
0.27
#103
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 7:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
ARST 44.9%55.1% USM
- Projected margin
- USM by 2.0
- Projected total
- 54
- 80% outcome range
- ARST 17 to USM 21
- Win probability
- USM 55.1%
Current team profiles
Arkansas State
Southern MissWhen Arkansas State has the ball
Rushing
ARST offense
Higher-ranked profile
- ARST offense
- #39
- USM defense
- #134
EPA comparison
0.18
#39
0.26
#134
Rush EPA
Drive success
ARST offense
Higher-ranked profile
- ARST offense
- #13
- USM defense
- #110
Success rates
50%
#13
45%
#110
Success rate
More metrics
0.18
#59
0.20
#122
EPA / play
1.16
#103
1.24
#78
Explosiveness
14%
#66
12%
#129
Havoc
When Southern Miss has the ball
Passing
USM offense
Higher-ranked profile
- ARST defense
- #135
- USM offense
- #111
EPA comparison
0.46
#135
0.08
#111
Pass EPA
Rushing
USM offense
Higher-ranked profile
- ARST defense
- #102
- USM offense
- #30
EPA comparison
0.13
#102
0.20
#30
Rush EPA
Drive success
USM offense
Higher-ranked profile
- ARST defense
- #129
- USM offense
- #62
Success rates
47%
#129
44%
#62
Success rate
More metrics
0.21
#123
0.08
#95
EPA / play
1.20
#63
1.19
#94
Explosiveness
11%
#132
15%
#73
Havoc
Current key players
Arkansas StateQBTrey Owens
1043 yds · 5 TD · 4 INT
77.596/729
LBKam Moore
23 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 86.2
- Coverage
- 72.3
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 4
- Missed tackles
- 3
- Forced fumbles
- 0
85.234/1796
LBRobert Stevens
25 tkl · 3.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 73.9
- Coverage
- 89.5
- Pressures
- 3
- Pass-rush snaps
- 17
- Missed tackles
- 6
- Forced fumbles
- 1
84.940/1796
SBrandon Greil
16 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 81.5
- Coverage
- 77.3
- Targets allowed
- 7
- Rec allowed
- 6
- Yards allowed
- 54
- Passer rating allowed
- 59.2
- Missed tackles
- 3
80.458/2969
CBNoah Flores
12 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 58.2
- Coverage
- 81.9
- Targets allowed
- 7
- Rec allowed
- 4
- Yards allowed
- 108
- Passer rating allowed
- 101.8
- Missed tackles
- 3
78.097/2969
RBJames Lee
123 yds · 0 TD · 7.2 YPC
75.5170/1044
Availability reports · 1
- Devin Spencer · RBout · 2026-08-17
Spencer is dealing with a knee injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.
Southern MissQBEthan Hampton
419 yds · 2 TD · 4 INT
69.3163/729
LBMelvin Spriggs
10 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 89.4
- Coverage
- 62.7
- Pressures
- 0
- Pass-rush snaps
- 1
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 1
86.231/1796
WRMJ Johnson
9 rec · 120 yds · 0 TD
83.631/2069
DBKobi Albert
13 tkl · 1 PD · 3 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 74.7
- Coverage
- 83.7
- Targets allowed
- 18
- Rec allowed
- 9
- Yards allowed
- 52
- Passer rating allowed
- 16.7
- Missed tackles
- 0
83.334/2969
DBJonah Martinez
3 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 63.5
- Coverage
- 89.8
- Targets allowed
- 4
- Rec allowed
- 1
- Yards allowed
- 25
- Passer rating allowed
- 13.5
- Missed tackles
- 2
83.136/2969
DBLaquan Robinson
20 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 77.5
- Coverage
- 79.6
- Targets allowed
- 1
- Rec allowed
- 1
- Yards allowed
- 0
- Passer rating allowed
- 79.2
- Missed tackles
- 2
80.160/2969
Availability reports · 3
- Ethan Hampton · QBout · 2026-09-25
Hampton is nursing with a hand injury, and a timetable for return has yet to be established.
- Grant Page · WRout · 2026-09-22
Page is sidelined due to a dislocated elbow, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.
- Jaylen Himes · WRout · 2026-09-25
Himes is out of commission due to a foot injury, and he will miss an extended period.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
ARSTArkansas State
USMSouthern Miss
vs
Offense
77.5
#73 of 138
QB
Quarterback
69.3
#103 of 138
74.5
#77 of 138
RB
Running backs
71.1
#110 of 138
72.0
#61 of 138
WR
Receivers
74.2
#40 of 138
67.0
#82 of 138
TE
Tight ends
70.8
#58 of 138
71.0
#46 of 138
OL
Offensive line
72.9
#28 of 138
Defense
72.6
#77 of 138
DL
Defensive line
70.4
#100 of 138
77.9
#37 of 138
LB
Linebackers
75.7
#55 of 138
76.6
#21 of 138
DB
Secondary
76.2
#23 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Arkansas State
opponent
Southern Miss
Hhome+3.7
TROYTroy#111-21.0Aaway
Hhome+15.5
ULMUL Monroe#163+9.6Aaway
Hhome-7.0
USASouth Alabama#96-1.7Hhome
Aaway-3.9
LTLouisiana Tech#87-4.5Aaway
Aaway-3.0
ULLouisiana#92-3.1Hhome