AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#131Away
Georgia State
0-0 · AVR 26.7
24p
#104Home
Arkansas State
0-0 · AVR 38.8
33p
GAST 27%73% ARST
Spread
ARST -9.0
Total
57
Moneyline
GAST+275ARST-275
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← GAST advantageevenARST advantage →
GAST throw
even
GAST run
GAST +5
ARST throw
ARST +21
ARST run
ARST backs #67
ARST +27

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Brown
Deylin Hasert
vs
Shakai Woods
LT · GAST
EDGE · ARST
54.8
84.8
ARST +30
over the middle
Grant Hollier
vs
Joe Drew
TE · GAST
FS · ARST
61.3
59.0
dead even
when GAST throws
Jaylin Marshall
vs
Five Hamilton
X · GAST
CB1 · ARST
44.1
67.8
ARST +24
when ARST runs
Kenyon Clay
vs
Jaden Kelly
RB · ARST
MLB · GAST
59.4
39.6
ARST +20
when GAST runs
Dennis Murray Jr.
vs
Nigel Nelson
RB · GAST
MLB · ARST
47.2
51.6
ARST +4
when ARST throws
Chauncy Cobb
vs
Deuce Walker
X · ARST
CB1 · GAST
45.7
42.6
ARST +3

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Georgia State
TEGrant Hollier
61.340/287
QBCameran Brown
58.277/308
RBDennis Murray Jr.
47.2376/514
WRJaylin Marshall
44.1490/777
WRDerrick Avery Jr.
42.9530/777
SDeuce Walker
42.6961/1427
Arkansas State
SFive Hamilton
67.8286/1427
CBNoah Flores
66.7315/1427
CBJaylen Heyward
65.2351/1427
RBKenyon Clay
59.4117/514
QBDrew Dickey
55.395/308
LBNigel Nelson
51.6446/878

also out — D. Spencer (RB)

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Georgia State
opponent
Arkansas State
away-6.2
Kennesaw State#105
+5.2home
home+3.0
Coastal Carolina#126
+4.5away
home-7.7
Louisiana#99
-6.2away

Projected margin

80% between -8 and 26
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKARST +9.095% interval: -14.9 to 32.980% interval: -8.4 to 26.4-8+26GAST wins 27%ARST wins 73%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ARST 32–25 GASTARST 28–49 GAST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARST 32–46 GAST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARST 35–42 GAST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARST 39–39 GAST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARST 42–35 GAST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARST 46–32 GAST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARST 49–28 GAST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARST 53–25 GAST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARST 56–21 GAST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARST 25–46 GAST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARST 28–42 GAST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARST 32–39 GAST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARST 35–35 GAST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARST 39–32 GAST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARST 42–28 GAST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesARST 46–25 GAST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARST 49–21 GAST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARST 53–18 GAST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARST 21–42 GAST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARST 25–39 GAST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARST 28–35 GAST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARST 32–32 GAST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesARST 35–28 GAST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesARST 39–25 GAST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesARST 42–21 GAST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARST 46–18 GAST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARST 49–14 GAST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARST 18–39 GAST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARST 21–35 GAST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARST 25–32 GAST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARST 28–28 GAST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARST 32–25 GAST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesARST 35–21 GAST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesARST 39–18 GAST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARST 42–14 GAST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARST 46–11 GAST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARST 14–35 GAST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARST 18–32 GAST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARST 21–28 GAST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARST 25–25 GAST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARST 28–21 GAST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesARST 32–18 GAST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesARST 35–14 GAST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARST 39–11 GAST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARST 42–7 GAST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARST 11–32 GAST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARST 14–28 GAST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARST 18–25 GAST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARST 21–21 GAST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARST 25–18 GAST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesARST 28–14 GAST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARST 32–11 GAST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARST 35–7 GAST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARST 39–4 GAST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARST 7–28 GAST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARST 11–25 GAST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARST 14–21 GAST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARST 18–18 GAST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARST 21–14 GAST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARST 25–11 GAST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARST 28–7 GAST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARST 32–4 GAST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARST 35–0 GAST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalGAST +21GAST +7ARST +7ARST +21ARST +35margin →