AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#132Away
UL Monroe
0-0 · AVR 26.4
20p
#104Home
Arkansas State
0-0 · AVR 38.8
33p
ULM 20%80% ARST
Spread
ARST -12.7
Total
53
Moneyline
ULM+398ARST-398
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ULM advantageevenARST advantage →
ULM throw
ARST +20
ULM run
ULM +4
ARST throw
ARST +10
ARST run
ARST backs #67ULM front #130
ULM +16

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when ARST runs
Kenyon Clay
vs
Noah Flemmings
RB · ARST
MLB · ULM
59.4
86.1
ULM +27
off the edge· hunting Armenta
Drew Hutchinson
vs
Shakai Woods
LT · ULM
EDGE · ARST
41.3
84.8
ARST +43
over the middle
Bryce Anderson
vs
Joe Drew
TE · ULM
FS · ARST
61.0
59.0
dead even
when ULM throws
JP Coulter
vs
Five Hamilton
X · ULM
CB1 · ARST
48.1
67.8
ARST +20
when ARST throws
Chauncy Cobb
vs
Jabari Tiller
X · ARST
CB1 · ULM
45.7
57.9
ULM +12
over the middle
Tyler Little
vs
Armoni Rue
TE · ARST
FS · ULM
38.4
41.2
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UL Monroe
LBNoah Flemmings
86.119/878
LBMarcus Ross
74.9106/878
LBJaeden Calender
67.4188/878
TEBryce Anderson
61.046/287
DBJabari Tiller
57.9535/1427
WRJP Coulter
48.1373/777
Arkansas State
SFive Hamilton
67.8286/1427
CBNoah Flores
66.7315/1427
CBJaylen Heyward
65.2351/1427
RBKenyon Clay
59.4117/514
QBDrew Dickey
55.395/308
LBNigel Nelson
51.6446/878

also out — D. Spencer (RB)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
UL Monroe
opponent
Arkansas State
away-14.4
Troy#95
+0.8home
away-15.1
South Alabama#100
+0.1home
home-9.3
Southern Miss#93
-4.1away
home-9.4
Louisiana Tech#94
-4.3away
home-11.3
Louisiana#99
-6.2away

Projected margin

80% between -5 and 30
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKARST +12.795% interval: -11.3 to 36.680% interval: -4.7 to 30-5+30ULM wins 20%ARST wins 80%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ARST 35–21 ULMARST 32–46 ULM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARST 35–42 ULM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARST 39–39 ULM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARST 42–35 ULM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARST 46–32 ULM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARST 49–28 ULM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARST 53–25 ULM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARST 56–21 ULM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARST 60–18 ULM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARST 28–42 ULM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARST 32–39 ULM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARST 35–35 ULM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARST 39–32 ULM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARST 42–28 ULM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARST 46–25 ULM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARST 49–21 ULM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARST 53–18 ULM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARST 56–14 ULM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARST 25–39 ULM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARST 28–35 ULM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARST 32–32 ULM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARST 35–28 ULM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesARST 39–25 ULM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesARST 42–21 ULM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARST 46–18 ULM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARST 49–14 ULM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARST 53–11 ULM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARST 21–35 ULM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARST 25–32 ULM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARST 28–28 ULM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARST 32–25 ULM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesARST 35–21 ULM neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesARST 39–18 ULM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesARST 42–14 ULM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARST 46–11 ULM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARST 49–7 ULM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARST 18–32 ULM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARST 21–28 ULM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARST 25–25 ULM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARST 28–21 ULM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesARST 32–18 ULM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesARST 35–14 ULM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARST 39–11 ULM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARST 42–7 ULM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARST 46–4 ULM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARST 14–28 ULM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARST 18–25 ULM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARST 21–21 ULM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARST 25–18 ULM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARST 28–14 ULM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesARST 32–11 ULM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARST 35–7 ULM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARST 39–4 ULM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARST 42–0 ULM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARST 11–25 ULM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARST 14–21 ULM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARST 18–18 ULM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARST 21–14 ULM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARST 25–11 ULM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARST 28–7 ULM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARST 32–4 ULM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARST 35–0 ULM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalULM +14PKARST +14ARST +28ARST +42margin →