AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#104Away
Arkansas State
0-0 · AVR 38.8
29p
#126Home
Coastal Carolina
0-0 · AVR 29.6
24p
ARST 63%37% CCU
Spread
ARST -4.5
Total
53
Moneyline
ARST-168CCU+168
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ARST advantageevenCCU advantage →
ARST throw
CCU coverage #123CCU pass rush #36
CCU +21
ARST run
ARST backs #67CCU front #36
CCU +17
CCU throw
CCU WR #42
CCU +16
CCU run
CCU +28

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when CCU throws
Tristian Gardner
vs
Five Hamilton
X · CCU
CB1 · ARST
74.7
67.8
CCU +7
off the edge· hunting Jackson
Daughtry Richardson
vs
Shakai Woods
LT · CCU
EDGE · ARST
47.2
84.8
ARST +38
when ARST runs
Kenyon Clay
vs
Tray Brown
RB · ARST
MLB · CCU
59.4
63.6
CCU +4
off the edge· hunting Dickey
Aleric Watson
vs
Mitchell Toney
LT · ARST
EDGE · CCU
27.1
82.2
CCU +55
when CCU runs
Dominic Knicely
vs
Nigel Nelson
RB · CCU
MLB · ARST
52.0
51.6
dead even
when ARST throws
Chauncy Cobb
vs
Myles Woods
X · ARST
CB1 · CCU
45.7
54.5
CCU +9

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Arkansas State
SFive Hamilton
67.8286/1427
CBNoah Flores
66.7315/1427
CBJaylen Heyward
65.2351/1427
RBKenyon Clay
59.4117/514
QBDrew Dickey
55.395/308
LBNigel Nelson
51.6446/878

also out — D. Spencer (RB)

Coastal Carolina
WRTristian Gardner
74.734/777
LBTray Brown
63.6230/878
DBMyles Woods
54.5635/1427
WRClayton Coppock Jr.
53.9195/777
QBTrever Jackson
52.9125/308
RBDominic Knicely
52.0233/514

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Arkansas State
opponent
Coastal Carolina
home+9.0
Georgia State#131
-3.0away
away-6.2
Louisiana#99
-13.2away

Projected margin

80% between -22 and 13
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKARST +4.595% interval: -28.4 to 19.480% interval: -21.9 to 12.9-22+13ARST wins 63%CCU wins 37%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ARST 32–25 CCUCCU 21–56 ARST neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesCCU 25–53 ARST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCCU 28–49 ARST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCCU 32–46 ARST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCCU 35–42 ARST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCCU 39–39 ARST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCCU 42–35 ARST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCCU 46–32 ARST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCCU 49–28 ARST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCCU 18–53 ARST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCCU 21–49 ARST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCCU 25–46 ARST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCCU 28–42 ARST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCCU 32–39 ARST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCCU 35–35 ARST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCCU 39–32 ARST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCCU 42–28 ARST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCCU 46–25 ARST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCCU 14–49 ARST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCCU 18–46 ARST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCCU 21–42 ARST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCCU 25–39 ARST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCCU 28–35 ARST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCCU 32–32 ARST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCCU 35–28 ARST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCCU 39–25 ARST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCCU 42–21 ARST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCCU 11–46 ARST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCCU 14–42 ARST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCCU 18–39 ARST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCCU 21–35 ARST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCCU 25–32 ARST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCCU 28–28 ARST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCCU 32–25 ARST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCCU 35–21 ARST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCCU 39–18 ARST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCCU 7–42 ARST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCCU 11–39 ARST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCCU 14–35 ARST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCCU 18–32 ARST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCCU 21–28 ARST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCCU 25–25 ARST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCCU 28–21 ARST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCCU 32–18 ARST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCCU 35–14 ARST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCCU 4–39 ARST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCCU 7–35 ARST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCCU 11–32 ARST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCCU 14–28 ARST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCCU 18–25 ARST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCCU 21–21 ARST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCCU 25–18 ARST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCCU 28–14 ARST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCCU 32–11 ARST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCCU 0–35 ARST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCCU 4–32 ARST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCCU 7–28 ARST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCCU 11–25 ARST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCCU 14–21 ARST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCCU 18–18 ARST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCCU 21–14 ARST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCCU 25–11 ARST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCCU 28–7 ARST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalARST +35ARST +21ARST +7CCU +7CCU +21margin →