CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 12:00 AM ET
#91Away
Arkansas State
2-4 · AVR 56.1
27p
#127Home
Coastal Carolina
2-4 · AVR 49.3
24p
Forecast win probability
ARST 53.9%46.1% CCU
Projected margin
ARST by 1.6
Projected total
52
80% outcome range
ARST 20 to CCU 17
Win probability
ARST 53.9%

Current team profiles

Arkansas State
Coastal Carolina

When Arkansas State has the ball

Passing

ARST offense
Higher-ranked profile
ARST offense
#70
CCU defense
#112
EPA comparison
0.23
#70
0.31
#112
Pass EPA

Rushing

ARST offense
Higher-ranked profile
ARST offense
#39
CCU defense
#73
EPA comparison
0.18
#39
0.05
#73
Rush EPA

Drive success

ARST offense
Higher-ranked profile
ARST offense
#13
CCU defense
#114
Success rates
50%
#13
45%
#114
Success rate
More metrics
0.18
#59
0.11
#89
EPA / play
1.16
#103
1.10
#23
Explosiveness
14%
#66
16%
#68
Havoc

When Coastal Carolina has the ball

Passing

CCU offense
Higher-ranked profile
ARST defense
#135
CCU offense
#78
EPA comparison
0.46
#135
0.19
#78
Pass EPA

Rushing

CCU offense
Higher-ranked profile
ARST defense
#102
CCU offense
#72
EPA comparison
0.13
#102
0.10
#72
Rush EPA

Drive success

CCU offense
Higher-ranked profile
ARST defense
#129
CCU offense
#111
Success rates
47%
#129
39%
#111
Success rate
More metrics
0.21
#123
0.12
#82
EPA / play
1.20
#63
1.33
#24
Explosiveness
11%
#132
19%
#130
Havoc

Current key players

Arkansas State
QBTrey Owens
1043 yds · 5 TD · 4 INT
77.596/729
LBKam Moore
23 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
86.2
Coverage
72.3
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
4
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
0
85.234/1796
LBRobert Stevens
25 tkl · 3.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
73.9
Coverage
89.5
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
17
Missed tackles
6
Forced fumbles
1
84.940/1796
SBrandon Greil
16 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
81.5
Coverage
77.3
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
54
Passer rating allowed
59.2
Missed tackles
3
80.458/2969
CBNoah Flores
12 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
58.2
Coverage
81.9
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
108
Passer rating allowed
101.8
Missed tackles
3
78.097/2969
RBJames Lee
123 yds · 0 TD · 7.2 YPC
75.5170/1044
Availability reports · 1
  • Devin Spencer · RBout · 2026-08-17

    Spencer is dealing with a knee injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.

Coastal Carolina
QBDeuce Bailey
1267 yds · 12 TD · 2 INT
75.2112/729
SZeke Marshall
1 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
55.1
Coverage
60.0
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
0.0
Missed tackles
0
91.45/2969
WRNathan Schuessler
1 rec · 6 yds · 0 TD
77.284/2069
DBJesse Powell II
19 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
82.3
Coverage
70.9
Targets allowed
6
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
38
Passer rating allowed
84.0
Missed tackles
0
76.7140/2969
WRColton Hinton
10 rec · 220 yds · 4 TD
76.4102/2069
CBTravis Roman
19 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
72.3
Coverage
74.1
Targets allowed
16
Rec allowed
9
Yards allowed
107
Passer rating allowed
50.8
Missed tackles
4
73.4258/2969
Availability reports · 2
  • Colton Hinton · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hinton is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against Mountaineers on Friday, October 16th.

  • K. Johnson · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Johnson is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against Mountaineers on Friday, October 16th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

ARST
CCU
vs
Offense
77.5
#73 of 138
QB
75.2
#82 of 138
74.5
#77 of 138
RB
71.1
#111 of 138
72.0
#61 of 138
WR
73.4
#46 of 138
67.0
#82 of 138
TE
60.3
#117 of 138
71.0
#46 of 138
OL
67.2
#76 of 138
Defense
72.6
#77 of 138
DL
71.9
#88 of 138
77.9
#37 of 138
LB
68.4
#120 of 138
76.6
#21 of 138
DB
75.8
#25 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Arkansas State
opponent
Coastal Carolina
H-0.5
GAST#81
-10.1A
A-3.0
UL#92
-12.1A