AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Thu Nov 19 · 5:00 AM
#104Away
Arkansas State
0-0 · AVR 38.8
24p
#94Home
Louisiana Tech
0-0 · AVR 42.0
28p
ARST 38%62% LT
Spread
LT -4.3
Total
52
Moneyline
ARST+161LT-161
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ARST advantageevenLT advantage →
ARST throw
LT +47
ARST run
ARST backs #67
LT +27
LT throw
LT +4
LT run
LT +43

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Kukuk
Troy Smith III
vs
Shakai Woods
LT · LT
EDGE · ARST
53.7
84.8
ARST +31
when ARST throws
Chauncy Cobb
vs
Jaitlin Hampton
X · ARST
CB1 · LT
45.7
83.7
LT +38
when ARST runs
Kenyon Clay
vs
Jadon Mayfield
RB · ARST
MLB · LT
59.4
68.2
LT +9
when LT throws
Jalen Mickens
vs
Five Hamilton
X · LT
CB1 · ARST
44.3
67.8
ARST +23
off the edge· hunting Dickey
Aleric Watson
vs
Judd Rouyea
LT · ARST
EDGE · LT
27.1
83.2
LT +56
over the middle
Tyler Little
vs
Sam Fongang
TE · ARST
FS · LT
38.4
68.5
LT +30

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Arkansas State
SFive Hamilton
67.8286/1427
CBNoah Flores
66.7315/1427
CBJaylen Heyward
65.2351/1427
RBKenyon Clay
59.4117/514
QBDrew Dickey
55.395/308
LBNigel Nelson
51.6446/878

also out — D. Spencer (RB)

Louisiana Tech
DBJaitlin Hampton
83.760/1427
DBKam Franklin
75.3152/1427
DBJavari Lockhart
69.1261/1427
DBSam Fongang
68.5274/1427
LBJadon Mayfield
68.2175/878
LBAlonzo Jackson Jr.
61.2265/878

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Arkansas State
opponent
Louisiana Tech
away-6.2
Louisiana#99
+0.6home
away-4.1
Southern Miss#93
+2.7home
home+0.8
Troy#95
-2.5away
home+12.7
UL Monroe#132
+9.4away
home+0.1
South Alabama#100
-3.1away

Projected margin

80% between -13 and 22
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKLT +4.395% interval: -19.6 to 28.280% interval: -13.1 to 21.7-13+22ARST wins 38%LT wins 62%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ LT 28–21 ARSTLT 25–46 ARST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLT 28–42 ARST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLT 32–39 ARST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLT 35–35 ARST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLT 39–32 ARST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLT 42–28 ARST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLT 46–25 ARST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLT 49–21 ARST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLT 53–18 ARST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLT 21–42 ARST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLT 25–39 ARST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesLT 28–35 ARST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesLT 32–32 ARST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLT 35–28 ARST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesLT 39–25 ARST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLT 42–21 ARST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLT 46–18 ARST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLT 49–14 ARST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLT 18–39 ARST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLT 21–35 ARST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesLT 25–32 ARST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLT 28–28 ARST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesLT 32–25 ARST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesLT 35–21 ARST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLT 39–18 ARST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesLT 42–14 ARST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLT 46–11 ARST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLT 14–35 ARST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLT 18–32 ARST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesLT 21–28 ARST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLT 25–25 ARST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesLT 28–21 ARST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesLT 32–18 ARST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLT 35–14 ARST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLT 39–11 ARST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLT 42–7 ARST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLT 11–32 ARST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLT 14–28 ARST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesLT 18–25 ARST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLT 21–21 ARST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesLT 25–18 ARST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesLT 28–14 ARST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLT 32–11 ARST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLT 35–7 ARST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLT 39–4 ARST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLT 7–28 ARST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLT 11–25 ARST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLT 14–21 ARST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLT 18–18 ARST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLT 21–14 ARST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLT 25–11 ARST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesLT 28–7 ARST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLT 32–4 ARST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLT 35–0 ARST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLT 4–25 ARST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLT 7–21 ARST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLT 11–18 ARST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesLT 14–14 ARST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLT 18–11 ARST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLT 21–7 ARST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLT 25–4 ARST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesLT 28–0 ARST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalARST +21ARST +7LT +7LT +21LT +35margin →