AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 11:00 PM
#117Away
Georgia Southern
0-0 · AVR 33.9
26p
#89Home
Jacksonville State
0-1 · AVR 43.6
34p
GASO 28%72% JXST
Spread
JXST -8.4
Total
60
Moneyline
GASO+253JXST-253
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← GASO advantageevenJXST advantage →
GASO throw
JXST +24
GASO run
JXST +17
JXST throw
JXST +63
JXST run
JXST backs #119GASO front #157
JXST +20

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Bryan
Caelan Williams
vs
Khurtiss Perry
LT · GASO
EDGE · JXST
78.6
74.3
GASO +4
when GASO throws
Ashton Hollins
vs
Rob Billings IV
X · GASO
CB1 · JXST
49.2
79.4
JXST +30
when JXST runs
Lucas Farrington
vs
Anthony Bynum
RB · JXST
MLB · GASO
49.7
78.1
GASO +28
when GASO runs
David Mbadinga
vs
Walker O'Steen
RB · GASO
MLB · JXST
50.8
73.0
JXST +22
when JXST throws
Deondre Johnson
vs
Tracy Hill Jr.
X · JXST
CB1 · GASO
71.0
50.9
JXST +20
over the middle
JP Mikhael
vs
Marc Woods
TE · GASO
FS · JXST
50.3
67.8
JXST +17

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Georgia Southern
LBAnthony Bynum
78.180/878
LBMJ Stroud
62.8244/878
QBWeston Bryan
51.6140/308
DBTracy Hill Jr.
50.9747/1427
RBDavid Mbadinga
50.8272/514
TEJP Mikhael
50.3129/287
Jacksonville State
SRob Billings IV
79.496/1427
CBTre'Quon Fegans
74.5158/1427
LBWalker O'Steen
73.0118/878
LBMorven Joseph
72.1121/878
SCaleb Nix
71.9193/1427
WRDeondre Johnson
71.048/777

Projected margin

80% between -9 and 26
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKJXST +8.495% interval: -15.5 to 32.380% interval: -9 to 25.8-9+26GASO wins 28%JXST wins 72%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ JXST 35–28 GASOJXST 32–53 GASO neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesJXST 35–49 GASO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesJXST 39–46 GASO neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesJXST 42–42 GASO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesJXST 46–39 GASO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesJXST 49–35 GASO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesJXST 53–32 GASO neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesJXST 56–28 GASO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesJXST 60–25 GASO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesJXST 28–49 GASO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesJXST 32–46 GASO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesJXST 35–42 GASO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesJXST 39–39 GASO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesJXST 42–35 GASO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesJXST 46–32 GASO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesJXST 49–28 GASO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesJXST 53–25 GASO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesJXST 56–21 GASO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesJXST 25–46 GASO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesJXST 28–42 GASO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesJXST 32–39 GASO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesJXST 35–35 GASO neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesJXST 39–32 GASO neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesJXST 42–28 GASO neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesJXST 46–25 GASO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesJXST 49–21 GASO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesJXST 53–18 GASO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesJXST 21–42 GASO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesJXST 25–39 GASO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesJXST 28–35 GASO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesJXST 32–32 GASO neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesJXST 35–28 GASO neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesJXST 39–25 GASO neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesJXST 42–21 GASO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesJXST 46–18 GASO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesJXST 49–14 GASO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesJXST 18–39 GASO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesJXST 21–35 GASO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesJXST 25–32 GASO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesJXST 28–28 GASO neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesJXST 32–25 GASO neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesJXST 35–21 GASO neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesJXST 39–18 GASO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesJXST 42–14 GASO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesJXST 46–11 GASO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesJXST 14–35 GASO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesJXST 18–32 GASO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesJXST 21–28 GASO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesJXST 25–25 GASO neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesJXST 28–21 GASO neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesJXST 32–18 GASO neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesJXST 35–14 GASO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesJXST 39–11 GASO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesJXST 42–7 GASO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesJXST 11–32 GASO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesJXST 14–28 GASO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesJXST 18–25 GASO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesJXST 21–21 GASO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesJXST 25–18 GASO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesJXST 28–14 GASO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesJXST 32–11 GASO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesJXST 35–7 GASO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesJXST 39–4 GASO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes84777063564942totalGASO +21GASO +7JXST +7JXST +21JXST +35margin →