AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#55Away
James Madison
0-0 · AVR 53.7
34p
#117Home
Georgia Southern
0-0 · AVR 33.9
24p
JMU 76%25% GASO
Spread
JMU -9.9
Total
57
Moneyline
JMU-308GASO+308
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← JMU advantageevenGASO advantage →
JMU throw
JMU protection #122
JMU +23
JMU run
GASO front #157GASO linebackers #66
GASO +6
GASO throw
JMU +31
GASO run
JMU +18

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Bryan
Caelan Williams
vs
Amar Thomas
LT · GASO
EDGE · JMU
78.6
86.0
JMU +7
when GASO throws
Ashton Hollins
vs
DJ Kelly
X · GASO
CB1 · JMU
49.2
87.2
JMU +38
when JMU runs
George Pettaway
vs
Anthony Bynum
RB · JMU
MLB · GASO
53.5
78.1
GASO +25
when GASO runs
David Mbadinga
vs
Gannon Weathersby
RB · GASO
MLB · JMU
50.8
77.9
JMU +27
over the middle
JP Mikhael
vs
TJ McGill
TE · GASO
FS · JMU
50.3
57.7
JMU +7
when JMU throws
Za'Ron Collins
vs
Tracy Hill Jr.
X · JMU
CB1 · GASO
52.8
50.9
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
James Madison
CBDJ Kelly
87.226/1427
SKJ Flowe
84.649/1427
LBGannon Weathersby
77.983/878
SJoshua Prince
69.4256/1427
LBLee Johnson
64.8219/878
LBJayden Studio
58.8316/878
Georgia Southern
LBAnthony Bynum
78.180/878
LBMJ Stroud
62.8244/878
QBWeston Bryan
51.6140/308
DBTracy Hill Jr.
50.9747/1427
RBDavid Mbadinga
50.8272/514
TEJP Mikhael
50.3129/287

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
James Madison
opponent
Georgia Southern
home+19.3
Georgia State#131
+1.8away
home+19.8
Coastal Carolina#126
+2.3away
home+11.0
Troy#95
-6.4away
away+2.5
Old Dominion#76
-10.0away
home+8.2
Marshall#83
-4.3home
away+8.0
App State#103
+0.6home

Projected margin

80% between -27 and 7
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKJMU +9.995% interval: -33.9 to 1480% interval: -27.3 to 7.4-27+7JMU wins 76%GASO wins 25%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ JMU 32–25 GASOGASO 21–56 JMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGASO 25–53 JMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesGASO 28–49 JMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesGASO 32–46 JMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesGASO 35–42 JMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesGASO 39–39 JMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesGASO 42–35 JMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesGASO 46–32 JMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGASO 49–28 JMU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesGASO 18–53 JMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGASO 21–49 JMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesGASO 25–46 JMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesGASO 28–42 JMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesGASO 32–39 JMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesGASO 35–35 JMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesGASO 39–32 JMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesGASO 42–28 JMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGASO 46–25 JMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesGASO 14–49 JMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGASO 18–46 JMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesGASO 21–42 JMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesGASO 25–39 JMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesGASO 28–35 JMU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesGASO 32–32 JMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesGASO 35–28 JMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesGASO 39–25 JMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesGASO 42–21 JMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesGASO 11–46 JMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesGASO 14–42 JMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesGASO 18–39 JMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesGASO 21–35 JMU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesGASO 25–32 JMU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesGASO 28–28 JMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesGASO 32–25 JMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesGASO 35–21 JMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesGASO 39–18 JMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGASO 7–42 JMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGASO 11–39 JMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesGASO 14–35 JMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesGASO 18–32 JMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesGASO 21–28 JMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesGASO 25–25 JMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesGASO 28–21 JMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesGASO 32–18 JMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesGASO 35–14 JMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesGASO 4–39 JMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGASO 7–35 JMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesGASO 11–32 JMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesGASO 14–28 JMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesGASO 18–25 JMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesGASO 21–21 JMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesGASO 25–18 JMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesGASO 28–14 JMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGASO 32–11 JMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesGASO 0–35 JMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGASO 4–32 JMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesGASO 7–28 JMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesGASO 11–25 JMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesGASO 14–21 JMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesGASO 18–18 JMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesGASO 21–14 JMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesGASO 25–11 JMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGASO 28–7 JMU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalJMU +35JMU +21JMU +7GASO +7GASO +21margin →