CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 12:00 AM ET
#102Away
Georgia Southern
2-4 · AVR 53.5
27p
#111Home
Troy
3-2 · AVR 51.8
28p
Forecast win probability
GASO 49.1%50.9% TROY
Projected margin
TROY by 0.4
Projected total
54
80% outcome range
GASO 18 to TROY 19
Win probability
TROY 50.9%

Current team profiles

Georgia Southern
Troy

When Georgia Southern has the ball

Passing

GASO offense
Higher-ranked profile
GASO offense
#47
TROY defense
#71
EPA comparison
0.28
#47
0.15
#71
Pass EPA

Rushing

TROY defense
Higher-ranked profile
GASO offense
#107
TROY defense
#56
EPA comparison
0.01
#107
0.02
#56
Rush EPA

Drive success

TROY defense
Higher-ranked profile
GASO offense
#75
TROY defense
#64
Success rates
43%
#75
40%
#64
Success rate
More metrics
0.14
#75
0.07
#73
EPA / play
1.22
#81
1.35
#116
Explosiveness
17%
#105
17%
#59
Havoc

When Troy has the ball

Passing

TROY offense
Higher-ranked profile
GASO defense
#102
TROY offense
#101
EPA comparison
0.26
#102
0.11
#101
Pass EPA

Rushing

TROY offense
Higher-ranked profile
GASO defense
#52
TROY offense
#45
EPA comparison
0.01
#52
0.16
#45
Rush EPA

Drive success

GASO defense
Higher-ranked profile
GASO defense
#52
TROY offense
#79
Success rates
39%
#52
43%
#79
Success rate
More metrics
0.09
#81
0.13
#78
EPA / play
1.15
#32
1.26
#47
Explosiveness
17%
#52
17%
#114
Havoc

Current key players

Georgia Southern
QBWeston Bryan
13 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
78.782/729
LBMJ Stroud
11 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 0.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
71.4
Coverage
65.9
Pressures
9
Pass-rush snaps
92
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
79.787/1796
DBJakyri Jones
29 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
85.6
Coverage
69.6
Targets allowed
13
Rec allowed
9
Yards allowed
49
Passer rating allowed
69.1
Missed tackles
4
76.5145/2969
RBTaeo Todd
48 yds · 0 TD · 2.7 YPC
74.1192/1044
DBChace Calicut
15 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
88.7
Coverage
64.8
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
65
Passer rating allowed
62.5
Missed tackles
1
73.2268/2969
WRCam King
1 rec · 18 yds · 0 TD
72.9172/2069
Availability reports · 1
  • Ashton Hollins · WRout · 2026-10-01

    Hollins is liad up with a shoulder injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season.

Troy
QBGoose Crowder
822 yds · 7 TD · 4 INT
60.7263/729
SJustin Powe
26 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
84.7
Coverage
78.7
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
37
Passer rating allowed
118.1
Missed tackles
3
80.952/2969
RBGavin Griffin
259 yds · 0 TD · 4.8 YPC
77.6124/1044
DBDonnie Smith
14 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
58.0
Coverage
67.2
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
31
Passer rating allowed
100.7
Missed tackles
5
73.3262/2969
SJamarion Keyes
17 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
78.5
Coverage
68.9
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
75
Passer rating allowed
94.3
Missed tackles
1
72.9285/2969
LBTJ Thompson
20 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
81.2
Coverage
67.7
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
23
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
72.3282/1796
Availability reports · 2
  • Jackson Worley · TEout · 2026-10-03

    Worley has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Fabian Rogosch · TEQues. · 2026-10-06

    Rogosch is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Louisiana on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

GASO
TROY
vs
Offense
78.7
#63 of 138
QB
60.7
#130 of 138
73.2
#95 of 138
RB
76.6
#59 of 138
71.3
#70 of 138
WR
67.0
#121 of 138
66.0
#85 of 138
TE
69.3
#68 of 138
67.9
#68 of 138
OL
61.6
#123 of 138
Defense
67.9
#123 of 138
DL
64.1
#138 of 138
73.5
#75 of 138
LB
69.1
#112 of 138
71.7
#73 of 138
DB
72.0
#71 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Georgia Southern
opponent
Troy
H-3.0
JMU#51
-20.6A
H+2.7
LT#87
+0.4H