AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#117Away
Georgia Southern
0-0 · AVR 33.9
26p
#95Home
Troy
0-0 · AVR 41.7
32p
GASO 33%67% TROY
Spread
TROY -6.4
Total
58
Moneyline
GASO+204TROY-204
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← GASO advantageevenTROY advantage →
GASO throw
TROY coverage #45TROY pass rush #124
TROY +13
GASO run
GASO +8
TROY throw
TROY +11
TROY run
GASO front #157GASO linebackers #66
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Bryan
Caelan Williams
vs
Makel Green
LT · GASO
EDGE · TROY
78.6
58.5
GASO +20
when GASO throws
Ashton Hollins
vs
Jonathan Pennix
X · GASO
CB1 · TROY
49.2
83.7
TROY +34
when TROY runs
Jordan Lovett
vs
Anthony Bynum
RB · TROY
MLB · GASO
50.3
78.1
GASO +28
when GASO runs
David Mbadinga
vs
TJ Thompson
RB · GASO
MLB · TROY
50.8
68.5
TROY +18
over the middle
JP Mikhael
vs
Joe Lott
TE · GASO
FS · TROY
50.3
62.8
TROY +12
when TROY throws
TJ Lott
vs
Tracy Hill Jr.
X · TROY
CB1 · GASO
51.9
50.9
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Georgia Southern
LBAnthony Bynum
78.180/878
LBMJ Stroud
62.8244/878
QBWeston Bryan
51.6140/308
DBTracy Hill Jr.
50.9747/1427
RBDavid Mbadinga
50.8272/514
TEJP Mikhael
50.3129/287
Troy
CBJonathan Pennix
83.758/1427
DBDonnie Smith
78.9102/1427
LBTJ Thompson
68.5169/878
SMarcus Goree Jr.
67.5292/1427
LBLuke Hodge
61.8257/878
WRTJ Lott
51.9264/777

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Georgia Southern
opponent
Troy
home-1.5
Louisiana Tech#94
+2.5home
home-9.9
James Madison#55
-11.0away

Projected margin

80% between -11 and 24
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTROY +6.495% interval: -17.5 to 30.380% interval: -10.9 to 23.8-11+24GASO wins 33%TROY wins 67%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TROY 32–25 GASOTROY 28–49 GASO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTROY 32–46 GASO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTROY 35–42 GASO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTROY 39–39 GASO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTROY 42–35 GASO neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTROY 46–32 GASO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTROY 49–28 GASO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTROY 53–25 GASO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTROY 56–21 GASO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTROY 25–46 GASO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTROY 28–42 GASO neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTROY 32–39 GASO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTROY 35–35 GASO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTROY 39–32 GASO neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTROY 42–28 GASO neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTROY 46–25 GASO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTROY 49–21 GASO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTROY 53–18 GASO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTROY 21–42 GASO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTROY 25–39 GASO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTROY 28–35 GASO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTROY 32–32 GASO neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTROY 35–28 GASO neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTROY 39–25 GASO neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTROY 42–21 GASO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTROY 46–18 GASO neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTROY 49–14 GASO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTROY 18–39 GASO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTROY 21–35 GASO neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTROY 25–32 GASO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTROY 28–28 GASO neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTROY 32–25 GASO neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTROY 35–21 GASO neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTROY 39–18 GASO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTROY 42–14 GASO neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTROY 46–11 GASO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTROY 14–35 GASO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTROY 18–32 GASO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTROY 21–28 GASO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTROY 25–25 GASO neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTROY 28–21 GASO neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTROY 32–18 GASO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTROY 35–14 GASO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTROY 39–11 GASO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTROY 42–7 GASO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTROY 11–32 GASO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTROY 14–28 GASO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTROY 18–25 GASO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTROY 21–21 GASO neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTROY 25–18 GASO neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTROY 28–14 GASO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTROY 32–11 GASO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTROY 35–7 GASO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTROY 39–4 GASO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTROY 7–28 GASO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTROY 11–25 GASO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTROY 14–21 GASO neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTROY 18–18 GASO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTROY 21–14 GASO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTROY 25–11 GASO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTROY 28–7 GASO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTROY 32–4 GASO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTROY 35–0 GASO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalGASO +21GASO +7TROY +7TROY +21TROY +35margin →