AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
#131Away
Georgia State
0-0 · AVR 26.7
18p
#55Home
James Madison
0-0 · AVR 53.7
37p
GAST 9%91% JMU
Spread
JMU -19.3
Total
56
Moneyline
GAST+982JMU-982
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← GAST advantageevenJMU advantage →
GAST throw
JMU +31
GAST run
JMU +40
JMU throw
JMU protection #122
JMU +25
JMU run
JMU +14

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Brown
Deylin Hasert
vs
Amar Thomas
LT · GAST
EDGE · JMU
54.8
86.0
JMU +31
when GAST throws
Jaylin Marshall
vs
DJ Kelly
X · GAST
CB1 · JMU
44.1
87.2
JMU +43
when GAST runs
Dennis Murray Jr.
vs
Gannon Weathersby
RB · GAST
MLB · JMU
47.2
77.9
JMU +31
over the middle
Grant Hollier
vs
TJ McGill
TE · GAST
FS · JMU
61.3
57.7
GAST +4
when JMU throws
Za'Ron Collins
vs
Deuce Walker
X · JMU
CB1 · GAST
52.8
42.6
JMU +10
when JMU runs
George Pettaway
vs
Jaden Kelly
RB · JMU
MLB · GAST
53.5
39.6
JMU +14

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Georgia State
TEGrant Hollier
61.340/287
QBCameran Brown
58.277/308
RBDennis Murray Jr.
47.2376/514
WRJaylin Marshall
44.1490/777
WRDerrick Avery Jr.
42.9530/777
SDeuce Walker
42.6961/1427
James Madison
CBDJ Kelly
87.226/1427
SKJ Flowe
84.649/1427
LBGannon Weathersby
77.983/878
SJoshua Prince
69.4256/1427
LBLee Johnson
64.8219/878
LBJayden Studio
58.8316/878

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Georgia State
opponent
James Madison
away-13.6
Marshall#83
+8.2home
home+3.0
Coastal Carolina#126
+19.8home
away-8.7
App State#103
+8.0away
home-9.3
Old Dominion#76
+2.5away
home-1.8
Georgia Southern#117
+9.9away

Projected margin

80% between 2 and 37
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKJMU +19.395% interval: -4.6 to 43.280% interval: 1.9 to 36.6+2+37GAST wins 9%JMU wins 91%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ JMU 39–18 GASTJMU 35–42 GAST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesJMU 39–39 GAST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesJMU 42–35 GAST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesJMU 46–32 GAST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesJMU 49–28 GAST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesJMU 53–25 GAST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesJMU 56–21 GAST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesJMU 60–18 GAST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesJMU 63–14 GAST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesJMU 32–39 GAST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesJMU 35–35 GAST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesJMU 39–32 GAST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesJMU 42–28 GAST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesJMU 46–25 GAST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesJMU 49–21 GAST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesJMU 53–18 GAST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesJMU 56–14 GAST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesJMU 60–11 GAST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesJMU 28–35 GAST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesJMU 32–32 GAST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesJMU 35–28 GAST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesJMU 39–25 GAST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesJMU 42–21 GAST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesJMU 46–18 GAST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesJMU 49–14 GAST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesJMU 53–11 GAST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesJMU 56–7 GAST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesJMU 25–32 GAST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesJMU 28–28 GAST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesJMU 32–25 GAST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesJMU 35–21 GAST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesJMU 39–18 GAST neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesJMU 42–14 GAST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesJMU 46–11 GAST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesJMU 49–7 GAST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesJMU 53–4 GAST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesJMU 21–28 GAST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesJMU 25–25 GAST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesJMU 28–21 GAST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesJMU 32–18 GAST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesJMU 35–14 GAST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesJMU 39–11 GAST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesJMU 42–7 GAST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesJMU 46–4 GAST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesJMU 49–0 GAST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesJMU 18–25 GAST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesJMU 21–21 GAST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesJMU 25–18 GAST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesJMU 28–14 GAST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesJMU 32–11 GAST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesJMU 35–7 GAST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesJMU 39–4 GAST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesJMU 42–0 GAST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)JMU 14–21 GAST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesJMU 18–18 GAST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesJMU 21–14 GAST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesJMU 25–11 GAST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesJMU 28–7 GAST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesJMU 32–4 GAST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesJMU 35–0 GAST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalGAST +7JMU +7JMU +21JMU +35JMU +49margin →