AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#55Away
James Madison
0-0 · AVR 53.7
29p
#76Home
Old Dominion
0-0 · AVR 47.5
27p
JMU 57%43% ODU
Spread
JMU -2.5
Total
56
Moneyline
JMU-131ODU+131
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← JMU advantageevenODU advantage →
JMU throw
JMU protection #122
ODU +50
JMU run
ODU +32
ODU throw
JMU +26
ODU run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when ODU runs
Devin Roche
vs
Gannon Weathersby
RB · ODU
MLB · JMU
64.7
77.9
JMU +13
when JMU throws
Za'Ron Collins
vs
Zion Frink
X · JMU
CB1 · ODU
52.8
89.5
ODU +37
when ODU throws
TJ Johnson
vs
DJ Kelly
X · ODU
CB1 · JMU
53.6
87.2
JMU +34
when JMU runs
George Pettaway
vs
Jackson Forrest
RB · JMU
MLB · ODU
53.5
79.2
ODU +26
over the middle
Leon Haughton Jr.
vs
TJ McGill
TE · ODU
FS · JMU
39.3
57.7
JMU +18
off the edge· hunting Evans
Tyler Brown
vs
Javen Gibson
LT · JMU
EDGE · ODU
13.0
73.0
ODU +60

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
James Madison
CBDJ Kelly
87.226/1427
SKJ Flowe
84.649/1427
LBGannon Weathersby
77.983/878
SJoshua Prince
69.4256/1427
LBLee Johnson
64.8219/878
LBJayden Studio
58.8316/878
Old Dominion
CBZion Frink
89.514/1427
CBBrandon Crutchfield
88.021/1427
SLucas Struck
79.793/1427
LBJackson Forrest
79.264/878
RBDevin Roche
64.775/514
WRTJ Johnson
53.6203/777

Common opponents

7 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
James Madison
opponent
Old Dominion
home+19.3
Georgia State#131
+9.3away
home+19.8
Coastal Carolina#126
+9.8away
away+8.0
App State#103
+3.0away
away+0.8
UConn#72
-4.2away
home+8.2
Marshall#83
+3.2home
away+6.1
Southern Miss#93
+6.2home
away+9.9
Georgia Southern#117
+10.0home

Projected margin

80% between -20 and 15
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKJMU +2.595% interval: -26.4 to 21.480% interval: -19.9 to 14.9-20+15JMU wins 57%ODU wins 43%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ODU 28–28 JMUODU 25–53 JMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesODU 28–49 JMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesODU 32–46 JMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesODU 35–42 JMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesODU 39–39 JMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesODU 42–35 JMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesODU 46–32 JMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesODU 49–28 JMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesODU 53–25 JMU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesODU 21–49 JMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesODU 25–46 JMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesODU 28–42 JMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesODU 32–39 JMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesODU 35–35 JMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesODU 39–32 JMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesODU 42–28 JMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesODU 46–25 JMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesODU 49–21 JMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesODU 18–46 JMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesODU 21–42 JMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesODU 25–39 JMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesODU 28–35 JMU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesODU 32–32 JMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesODU 35–28 JMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesODU 39–25 JMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesODU 42–21 JMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesODU 46–18 JMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesODU 14–42 JMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesODU 18–39 JMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesODU 21–35 JMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesODU 25–32 JMU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesODU 28–28 JMU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesODU 32–25 JMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesODU 35–21 JMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesODU 39–18 JMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesODU 42–14 JMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesODU 11–39 JMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesODU 14–35 JMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesODU 18–32 JMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesODU 21–28 JMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesODU 25–25 JMU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesODU 28–21 JMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesODU 32–18 JMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesODU 35–14 JMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesODU 39–11 JMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesODU 7–35 JMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesODU 11–32 JMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesODU 14–28 JMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesODU 18–25 JMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesODU 21–21 JMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesODU 25–18 JMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesODU 28–14 JMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesODU 32–11 JMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesODU 35–7 JMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesODU 4–32 JMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesODU 7–28 JMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesODU 11–25 JMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesODU 14–21 JMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesODU 18–18 JMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesODU 21–14 JMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesODU 25–11 JMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesODU 28–7 JMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesODU 32–4 JMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalJMU +28JMU +14PKODU +14ODU +28margin →