CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 6:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
JMU 83.5%16.5% ODU
Projected margin
JMU by 14.1
Projected total
50
80% outcome range
JMU 34 to ODU 4
Win probability
JMU 83.5%
FinalJMU 46 · ODU 20model had -14.1, off by 11.9

Current team profiles

James Madison
Old Dominion

When James Madison has the ball

Passing

JMU offense
Higher-ranked profile
JMU offense
#22
ODU defense
#55
EPA comparison
0.42
#22
0.10
#55
Pass EPA

Rushing

ODU defense
Higher-ranked profile
JMU offense
#28
ODU defense
#14
EPA comparison
0.21
#28
-0.12
#14
Rush EPA

Drive success

ODU defense
Higher-ranked profile
JMU offense
#37
ODU defense
#22
Success rates
48%
#37
35%
#22
Success rate
More metrics
0.29
#20
-0.05
#23
EPA / play
1.24
#65
1.20
#60
Explosiveness
10%
#13
18%
#34
Havoc

When Old Dominion has the ball

Passing

JMU defense
Higher-ranked profile
JMU defense
#41
ODU offense
#138
EPA comparison
0.07
#41
-0.19
#138
Pass EPA

Rushing

JMU defense
Higher-ranked profile
JMU defense
#22
ODU offense
#134
EPA comparison
-0.09
#22
-0.11
#134
Rush EPA

Drive success

JMU defense
Higher-ranked profile
JMU defense
#22
ODU offense
#138
Success rates
35%
#22
31%
#138
Success rate
More metrics
-0.05
#22
-0.15
#137
EPA / play
1.29
#100
1.20
#90
Explosiveness
17%
#59
25%
#138
Havoc

Current key players

James Madison
QBArrington Maiden
111 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT
81.763/729
SJayon Harvey
34 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
79.1
Coverage
79.6
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
55
Passer rating allowed
98.7
Missed tackles
4
81.247/2969
LBJT Hooten
27 tkl · 4.5 TFL · 2.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.6
Coverage
69.4
Pressures
8
Pass-rush snaps
39
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
81.069/1796
WRArrion Concepcion
1 rec · 16 yds · 0 TD
79.065/2069
SD'Kwan Thomas
2 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
63.1
Coverage
68.0
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
4
Passer rating allowed
83.3
Missed tackles
0
75.3184/2969
CBKen Willis
24 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
65.1
Coverage
67.8
Targets allowed
21
Rec allowed
10
Yards allowed
119
Passer rating allowed
65.4
Missed tackles
5
74.9195/2969
Availability reports · 1
  • Za'Ron Collins · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Collins is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Panthers on Saturday, October 17th.

Old Dominion
QBQuinn Henicle
467 yds · 3 TD · 2 INT
57.6324/729
LBJackson Forrest
30 tkl · 6.5 TFL · 3.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
79.6
Coverage
88.5
Pressures
11
Pass-rush snaps
36
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
1
91.85/1796
LBKoa Naotala
31 tkl · 3.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
90.0
Coverage
71.3
Pressures
7
Pass-rush snaps
27
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
84.939/1796
SLucas Struck
35 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
75.9
Coverage
80.8
Targets allowed
16
Rec allowed
13
Yards allowed
122
Passer rating allowed
98.4
Missed tackles
4
80.854/2969
SAsher Horn
12 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.1
Coverage
73.2
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
2
73.9239/2969
CBShaq Leaks
6 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
79.9
Coverage
69.3
Targets allowed
8
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
47
Passer rating allowed
97.4
Missed tackles
1
73.1274/2969
Position units

Position-unit comparison

JMU
ODU
vs
Offense
81.7
#54 of 138
QB
57.6
#136 of 138
71.7
#107 of 138
RB
67.3
#133 of 138
74.5
#36 of 138
WR
60.7
#137 of 138
73.1
#45 of 138
TE
67.1
#80 of 138
71.7
#39 of 138
OL
59.7
#132 of 138
Defense
76.6
#39 of 138
DL
69.9
#108 of 138
75.0
#59 of 138
LB
85.2
#4 of 138
74.0
#45 of 138
DB
73.4
#51 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

James Madison
opponent
Old Dominion
H+16.5
GAST#81
-32.0A
H+28.0
MRSH#124
+2.6H
H+23.9
CCU#127
+2.1A
A+9.8
CONN#95
-6.7A
A+14.9
USM#139
+3.7H
A+12.9
APP#100
+7.0A
A+3.0
GASO#102
+1.8H