AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#83Away
Marshall
0-0 · AVR 45.8
25p
#55Home
James Madison
0-0 · AVR 53.7
33p
MRSH 29%71% JMU
Spread
JMU -8.2
Total
57
Moneyline
MRSH+244JMU-244
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MRSH advantageevenJMU advantage →
MRSH throw
MRSH protection #97
even
MRSH run
JMU +36
JMU throw
JMU protection #122
MRSH +16
JMU run
MRSH +20

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MRSH throws
De'Andre Tamarez
vs
DJ Kelly
X · MRSH
CB1 · JMU
67.4
87.2
JMU +20
when JMU runs
George Pettaway
vs
Javae Gilmore
RB · JMU
MLB · MRSH
53.5
81.8
MRSH +28
when JMU throws
Za'Ron Collins
vs
Boogie Trotter
X · JMU
CB1 · MRSH
52.8
79.3
MRSH +26
when MRSH runs
Jo'Shon Barbie
vs
Gannon Weathersby
RB · MRSH
MLB · JMU
51.6
77.9
JMU +26
off the edge· hunting Rio-Wilson
Tariq Montgomery
vs
Amar Thomas
LT · MRSH
EDGE · JMU
32.0
86.0
JMU +54
over the middle
Toby Payne
vs
TJ McGill
TE · MRSH
FS · JMU
56.9
57.7
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Marshall
LBJavae Gilmore
81.843/878
CBBoogie Trotter
79.397/1427
QBCarlos Del Rio-Wilson
76.328/308
DBCharles McCartherens
69.6250/1427
WRDe'Andre Tamarez
67.468/777
CBEddie Pleasant III
67.4293/1427
James Madison
CBDJ Kelly
87.226/1427
SKJ Flowe
84.649/1427
LBGannon Weathersby
77.983/878
SJoshua Prince
69.4256/1427
LBLee Johnson
64.8219/878
LBJayden Studio
58.8316/878

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Marshall
opponent
James Madison
home+14.1
Coastal Carolina#126
+19.8home
home+13.6
Georgia State#131
+19.3home
away-3.2
Old Dominion#76
+2.5away
away+4.3
Georgia Southern#117
+9.9away
home+7.3
App State#103
+8.0away

Projected margin

80% between -9 and 26
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKJMU +8.295% interval: -15.7 to 32.180% interval: -9.2 to 25.6-9+26MRSH wins 29%JMU wins 71%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ JMU 32–25 MRSHJMU 28–49 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesJMU 32–46 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesJMU 35–42 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesJMU 39–39 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesJMU 42–35 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesJMU 46–32 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesJMU 49–28 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesJMU 53–25 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesJMU 56–21 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesJMU 25–46 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesJMU 28–42 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesJMU 32–39 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesJMU 35–35 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesJMU 39–32 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesJMU 42–28 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesJMU 46–25 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesJMU 49–21 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesJMU 53–18 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesJMU 21–42 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesJMU 25–39 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesJMU 28–35 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesJMU 32–32 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesJMU 35–28 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesJMU 39–25 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesJMU 42–21 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesJMU 46–18 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesJMU 49–14 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesJMU 18–39 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesJMU 21–35 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesJMU 25–32 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesJMU 28–28 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesJMU 32–25 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesJMU 35–21 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesJMU 39–18 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesJMU 42–14 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesJMU 46–11 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesJMU 14–35 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesJMU 18–32 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesJMU 21–28 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesJMU 25–25 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesJMU 28–21 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesJMU 32–18 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesJMU 35–14 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesJMU 39–11 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesJMU 42–7 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesJMU 11–32 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesJMU 14–28 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesJMU 18–25 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesJMU 21–21 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesJMU 25–18 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesJMU 28–14 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesJMU 32–11 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesJMU 35–7 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesJMU 39–4 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesJMU 7–28 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesJMU 11–25 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesJMU 14–21 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesJMU 18–18 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesJMU 21–14 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesJMU 25–11 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesJMU 28–7 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesJMU 32–4 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesJMU 35–0 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalMRSH +21MRSH +7JMU +7JMU +21JMU +35margin →