AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Fri Nov 6 · 1:00 AM
#55Away
James Madison
0-0 · AVR 53.7
30p
#93Home
Southern Miss
0-0 · AVR 42.2
24p
JMU 66%34% USM
Spread
JMU -6.1
Total
55
Moneyline
JMU-193USM+193
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← JMU advantageevenUSM advantage →
JMU throw
JMU protection #122
USM +36
JMU run
USM +31
USM throw
JMU +41
USM run
JMU +30

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when JMU throws
Za'Ron Collins
vs
Ishmael Ibraheem
X · JMU
CB1 · USM
52.8
95.9
USM +43
when USM throws
Mario Sanders
vs
DJ Kelly
X · USM
CB1 · JMU
52.8
87.2
JMU +34
when USM runs
Robert Briggs
vs
Gannon Weathersby
RB · USM
MLB · JMU
52.7
77.9
JMU +25
when JMU runs
George Pettaway
vs
Melvin Spriggs
RB · JMU
MLB · USM
53.5
70.3
USM +17
off the edge· hunting Evans
Tyler Brown
vs
Jameer Lewis
LT · JMU
EDGE · USM
13.0
72.6
USM +60

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
James Madison
CBDJ Kelly
87.226/1427
SKJ Flowe
84.649/1427
LBGannon Weathersby
77.983/878
SJoshua Prince
69.4256/1427
LBLee Johnson
64.8219/878
LBJayden Studio
58.8316/878
Southern Miss
CBIshmael Ibraheem
95.94/1427
DBKolby Peavy
72.4184/1427
LBMelvin Spriggs
70.3140/878
DBCannon McClain
64.0385/1427
LBMathis Haygood
60.8270/878
SMaLik Caswell
60.1479/1427

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
James Madison
opponent
Southern Miss
home+11.0
Troy#95
-2.6away
away+2.5
Old Dominion#76
-6.2away
away+0.8
UConn#72
-2.8home

Projected margin

80% between -24 and 11
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKJMU +6.195% interval: -30 to 17.880% interval: -23.5 to 11.3-23+11JMU wins 66%USM wins 34%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ JMU 32–25 USMUSM 21–56 JMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSM 25–53 JMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSM 28–49 JMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSM 32–46 JMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSM 35–42 JMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSM 39–39 JMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSM 42–35 JMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSM 46–32 JMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSM 49–28 JMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSM 18–53 JMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSM 21–49 JMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSM 25–46 JMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSM 28–42 JMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSM 32–39 JMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSM 35–35 JMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSM 39–32 JMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSM 42–28 JMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSM 46–25 JMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSM 14–49 JMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSM 18–46 JMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSM 21–42 JMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSM 25–39 JMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSM 28–35 JMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSM 32–32 JMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUSM 35–28 JMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSM 39–25 JMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSM 42–21 JMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSM 11–46 JMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSM 14–42 JMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSM 18–39 JMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSM 21–35 JMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUSM 25–32 JMU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUSM 28–28 JMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSM 32–25 JMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSM 35–21 JMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSM 39–18 JMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSM 7–42 JMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSM 11–39 JMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSM 14–35 JMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSM 18–32 JMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSM 21–28 JMU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUSM 25–25 JMU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUSM 28–21 JMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSM 32–18 JMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSM 35–14 JMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSM 4–39 JMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSM 7–35 JMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSM 11–32 JMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSM 14–28 JMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSM 18–25 JMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUSM 21–21 JMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSM 25–18 JMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSM 28–14 JMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSM 32–11 JMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSM 0–35 JMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSM 4–32 JMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSM 7–28 JMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSM 11–25 JMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSM 14–21 JMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSM 18–18 JMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSM 21–14 JMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSM 25–11 JMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSM 28–7 JMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalJMU +35JMU +21JMU +7USM +7USM +21margin →