AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
#95Away
Troy
0-0 · AVR 41.7
25p
#99Home
Louisiana
0-0 · AVR 40.0
30p
TROY 39%61% UL
Spread
UL -4.4
Total
55
Moneyline
TROY+158UL-158
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TROY advantageevenUL advantage →
TROY throw
UL pass rush #152
UL +5
TROY run
TROY +10
UL throw
TROY coverage #45TROY pass rush #124
TROY +9
UL run
TROY +11

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UL throws
Shelton Sampson Jr.
vs
Jonathan Pennix
X · UL
CB1 · TROY
74.3
83.7
TROY +9
when TROY throws
TJ Lott
vs
Brent Gordon Jr.
X · TROY
CB1 · UL
51.9
71.4
UL +20
when UL runs
Darrell Smith
vs
TJ Thompson
RB · UL
MLB · TROY
45.8
68.5
TROY +23
over the middle
Brock Chappell
vs
Joe Lott
TE · UL
FS · TROY
43.3
62.8
TROY +19
when TROY runs
Jordan Lovett
vs
Conor McPherson
RB · TROY
MLB · UL
50.3
54.2
UL +4
off the edge· hunting Winfield
J'Marion Gooch
vs
Makel Green
LT · UL
EDGE · TROY
40.5
58.5
TROY +18

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Troy
CBJonathan Pennix
83.758/1427
DBDonnie Smith
78.9102/1427
LBTJ Thompson
68.5169/878
SMarcus Goree Jr.
67.5292/1427
LBLuke Hodge
61.8257/878
WRTJ Lott
51.9264/777
Louisiana
WRShelton Sampson Jr.
74.335/777
CBBrent Gordon Jr.
71.4207/1427
SCollin Jacob
60.3473/1427
SMaurion Eleam
59.4497/1427
LBConor McPherson
54.2404/878
QBLunch Winfield
52.2133/308

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Troy
opponent
Louisiana
away-0.8
Arkansas State#104
+6.2home
away-3.2
South Alabama#100
+3.7home
home+2.6
Southern Miss#93
-0.5away
home+2.5
Louisiana Tech#94
-0.6away
home+14.4
UL Monroe#132
+11.3away

Projected margin

80% between -13 and 22
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUL +4.495% interval: -19.5 to 28.380% interval: -13 to 21.8-13+22TROY wins 39%UL wins 61%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UL 32–25 TROYUL 28–49 TROY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUL 32–46 TROY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUL 35–42 TROY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUL 39–39 TROY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUL 42–35 TROY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUL 46–32 TROY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUL 49–28 TROY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUL 53–25 TROY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUL 56–21 TROY neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUL 25–46 TROY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUL 28–42 TROY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUL 32–39 TROY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUL 35–35 TROY neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUL 39–32 TROY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUL 42–28 TROY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUL 46–25 TROY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUL 49–21 TROY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUL 53–18 TROY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUL 21–42 TROY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUL 25–39 TROY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUL 28–35 TROY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUL 32–32 TROY neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUL 35–28 TROY neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUL 39–25 TROY neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUL 42–21 TROY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUL 46–18 TROY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUL 49–14 TROY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUL 18–39 TROY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUL 21–35 TROY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUL 25–32 TROY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUL 28–28 TROY neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUL 32–25 TROY neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUL 35–21 TROY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUL 39–18 TROY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUL 42–14 TROY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUL 46–11 TROY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUL 14–35 TROY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUL 18–32 TROY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUL 21–28 TROY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUL 25–25 TROY neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUL 28–21 TROY neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUL 32–18 TROY neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUL 35–14 TROY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUL 39–11 TROY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUL 42–7 TROY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUL 11–32 TROY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUL 14–28 TROY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUL 18–25 TROY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUL 21–21 TROY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUL 25–18 TROY neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUL 28–14 TROY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUL 32–11 TROY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUL 35–7 TROY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUL 39–4 TROY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUL 7–28 TROY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUL 11–25 TROY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUL 14–21 TROY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUL 18–18 TROY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUL 21–14 TROY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUL 25–11 TROY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUL 28–7 TROY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUL 32–4 TROY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUL 35–0 TROY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalTROY +21TROY +7UL +7UL +21UL +35margin →