AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#100Away
South Alabama
0-0 · AVR 39.5
26p
#99Home
Louisiana
0-0 · AVR 40.0
29p
USA 40%60% UL
Spread
UL -3.7
Total
55
Moneyline
USA+151UL-151
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← USA advantageevenUL advantage →
USA throw
UL pass rush #152
USA +15
USA run
USA +36
UL throw
UL +23
UL run
UL +6

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UL throws
Shelton Sampson Jr.
vs
Jayvon Henderson
X · UL
CB1 · USA
74.3
69.9
UL +4
when USA throws
Anthony Eager
vs
Brent Gordon Jr.
X · USA
CB1 · UL
49.2
71.4
UL +22
when USA runs
Keenan Phillips
vs
Conor McPherson
RB · USA
MLB · UL
60.0
54.2
USA +6
when UL runs
Darrell Smith
vs
Seidrion Langston
RB · UL
MLB · USA
45.8
59.9
USA +14
over the middle
Rod Gibbs
vs
Kerry Wilson
TE · USA
FS · UL
43.7
57.5
UL +14
off the edge· hunting Winfield
J'Marion Gooch
vs
Emmanuel Waller
LT · UL
EDGE · USA
40.5
46.3
USA +6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
South Alabama
SJayvon Henderson
69.9241/1427
RBKeenan Phillips
60.0110/514
LBSeidrion Langston
59.9293/878
LBTirrell Johnson
56.7359/878
QBBishop Davenport
56.584/308
SDallas Young
56.5573/1427
Louisiana
WRShelton Sampson Jr.
74.335/777
CBBrent Gordon Jr.
71.4207/1427
SCollin Jacob
60.3473/1427
SMaurion Eleam
59.4497/1427
LBConor McPherson
54.2404/878
QBLunch Winfield
52.2133/308

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
South Alabama
opponent
Louisiana
away-0.1
Arkansas State#104
+6.2home
home+15.1
UL Monroe#132
+11.3away
home+3.1
Louisiana Tech#94
-0.6away
home+3.2
Troy#95
+4.4home
away-1.7
Southern Miss#93
-0.5away

Projected margin

80% between -14 and 21
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUL +3.795% interval: -20.2 to 27.680% interval: -13.6 to 21.1-14+21USA wins 40%UL wins 60%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UL 32–25 USAUL 28–49 USA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUL 32–46 USA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUL 35–42 USA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUL 39–39 USA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUL 42–35 USA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUL 46–32 USA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUL 49–28 USA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUL 53–25 USA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUL 56–21 USA neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUL 25–46 USA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUL 28–42 USA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUL 32–39 USA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUL 35–35 USA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUL 39–32 USA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUL 42–28 USA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUL 46–25 USA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUL 49–21 USA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUL 53–18 USA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUL 21–42 USA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUL 25–39 USA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUL 28–35 USA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUL 32–32 USA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUL 35–28 USA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUL 39–25 USA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUL 42–21 USA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUL 46–18 USA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUL 49–14 USA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUL 18–39 USA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUL 21–35 USA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUL 25–32 USA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUL 28–28 USA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUL 32–25 USA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUL 35–21 USA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUL 39–18 USA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUL 42–14 USA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUL 46–11 USA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUL 14–35 USA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUL 18–32 USA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUL 21–28 USA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUL 25–25 USA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUL 28–21 USA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUL 32–18 USA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUL 35–14 USA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUL 39–11 USA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUL 42–7 USA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUL 11–32 USA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUL 14–28 USA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUL 18–25 USA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUL 21–21 USA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUL 25–18 USA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUL 28–14 USA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUL 32–11 USA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUL 35–7 USA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUL 39–4 USA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUL 7–28 USA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUL 11–25 USA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUL 14–21 USA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUL 18–18 USA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUL 21–14 USA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUL 25–11 USA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUL 28–7 USA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUL 32–4 USA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUL 35–0 USA neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalUSA +21USA +7UL +7UL +21UL +35margin →