CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
USA 39.5%60.5% UL
Projected margin
UL by 4.0
Projected total
57
80% outcome range
USA 15 to UL 23
Win probability
UL 60.5%

Current team profiles

South Alabama
Louisiana

When South Alabama has the ball

Passing

USA offense
Higher-ranked profile
USA offense
#37
UL defense
#93
EPA comparison
0.34
#37
0.22
#93
Pass EPA

Rushing

UL defense
Higher-ranked profile
USA offense
#30
UL defense
#7
EPA comparison
0.20
#30
-0.20
#7
Rush EPA

Drive success

USA offense
Higher-ranked profile
USA offense
#69
UL defense
#94
Success rates
44%
#69
42%
#94
Success rate
More metrics
0.23
#36
-0.04
#27
EPA / play
1.33
#23
1.10
#20
Explosiveness
13%
#34
18%
#39
Havoc

When Louisiana has the ball

Passing

UL offense
Higher-ranked profile
USA defense
#122
UL offense
#62
EPA comparison
0.36
#122
0.25
#62
Pass EPA

Rushing

UL offense
Higher-ranked profile
USA defense
#125
UL offense
#45
EPA comparison
0.20
#125
0.16
#45
Rush EPA

Drive success

UL offense
Higher-ranked profile
USA defense
#137
UL offense
#68
Success rates
51%
#137
44%
#68
Success rate
More metrics
0.27
#134
0.15
#70
EPA / play
1.36
#119
1.19
#95
Explosiveness
17%
#52
14%
#52
Havoc

Current key players

South Alabama
QBBishop Davenport
450 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
73.0129/729
RBPJ Martin
328 yds · 5 TD · 4.3 YPC
79.985/1044
CBDamyrion Darby
8 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
42.8
Coverage
79.8
Targets allowed
14
Rec allowed
10
Yards allowed
115
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
4
76.1156/2969
SDeon Callins
4 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
72.2
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
6
Passer rating allowed
79.2
Missed tackles
0
73.6252/2969
LBXavious Anderson Jr.
13 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
60.1
Coverage
75.4
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
7
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
0
73.4242/1796
CBJaylen Moson
13 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
53.1
Coverage
72.8
Targets allowed
24
Rec allowed
11
Yards allowed
116
Passer rating allowed
70.8
Missed tackles
5
70.0446/2969
Availability reports · 4
  • Brian Barnes · WRout · 2026-10-01

    Barnes has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.

  • Khatori Marion · WRout · 2026-10-01

    Marion has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.

  • Maddox Lynch · TEout · 2026-10-01

    Lynch has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.

  • D. White · WRQues. · 2026-10-09

    White is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Marshall on Tuesday, October 22nd.

Louisiana
QBLunch Winfield
849 yds · 2 TD · 2 INT
89.726/729
CBBrent Gordon Jr.
30 tkl · 5 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
79.8
Coverage
90.0
Targets allowed
29
Rec allowed
16
Yards allowed
157
Passer rating allowed
64.9
Missed tackles
6
90.010/2969
CBCam Riley
0 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
79.1
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
79.570/2969
SLake Bates
8 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
62.6
Coverage
77.6
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
2
77.2117/2969
LBLester Jones
2 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
53.4
Coverage
48.2
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
27
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
75.5169/1796
RBAnthony Reagan Jr.
160 yds · 2 TD · 4.1 YPC
75.2175/1044
Availability reports · 3
  • Darrell Smith · RBout · 2026-10-07

    Smith is fighting off an undisclosed injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season.

  • Ja'Corian Norris · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Norris is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined whether he will suit up against Trojans on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jerry Birdlow · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Birdlow is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Trojans on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

USA
UL
vs
Offense
73.0
#90 of 138
QB
89.7
#25 of 138
78.0
#47 of 138
RB
73.6
#90 of 138
68.0
#110 of 138
WR
69.0
#93 of 138
61.4
#109 of 138
TE
71.5
#54 of 138
65.6
#91 of 138
OL
61.4
#124 of 138
Defense
65.2
#135 of 138
DL
66.1
#133 of 138
66.2
#128 of 138
LB
70.2
#104 of 138
69.4
#106 of 138
DB
78.5
#7 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

South Alabama
opponent
Louisiana
H+5.2
LT#87
-1.0A
A+7.0
ARST#91
+3.0H
H+17.0
ULM#163
+15.3A
H+7.4
TROY#111
+8.8H
A+1.7
USM#139
+3.1A