AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 11:00 PM
Away
Mercyhurst
—
16p
#75Home
Western Kentucky
0-0 · AVR 47.8
41p
MERC 4%96% WKU
Spread
WKU -25.1
Total
56
Moneyline
MERC+2588WKU-2588
Margin σ
14.1

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Western Kentucky
DBJaylen Lewis
87.028/1427
DBDave Herard
82.666/1427
DBXavion Griffin
71.8196/1427
QBRodney Tisdale Jr.
62.961/308
TEGriffin Reimer
58.168/287
LBJoshua Mensah
58.1332/878

Projected margin

80% between 8 and 42
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWKU +25.195% interval: 2.1 to 4880% interval: 8.3 to 41.8+8+42MERC wins 4%WKU wins 96%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WKU 42–14 MERCWKU 39–39 MERC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWKU 42–35 MERC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWKU 46–32 MERC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWKU 49–28 MERC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWKU 53–25 MERC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWKU 56–21 MERC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWKU 60–18 MERC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWKU 63–14 MERC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWKU 67–11 MERC neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesWKU 35–35 MERC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWKU 39–32 MERC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWKU 42–28 MERC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWKU 46–25 MERC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWKU 49–21 MERC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWKU 53–18 MERC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWKU 56–14 MERC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWKU 60–11 MERC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWKU 63–7 MERC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWKU 32–32 MERC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWKU 35–28 MERC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWKU 39–25 MERC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWKU 42–21 MERC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWKU 46–18 MERC neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesWKU 49–14 MERC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWKU 53–11 MERC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWKU 56–7 MERC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWKU 60–4 MERC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWKU 28–28 MERC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWKU 32–25 MERC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWKU 35–21 MERC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWKU 39–18 MERC neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesWKU 42–14 MERC neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesWKU 46–11 MERC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWKU 49–7 MERC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWKU 53–4 MERC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWKU 56–0 MERC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWKU 25–25 MERC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWKU 28–21 MERC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWKU 32–18 MERC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWKU 35–14 MERC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWKU 39–11 MERC neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesWKU 42–7 MERC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWKU 46–4 MERC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWKU 49–0 MERC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)WKU 21–21 MERC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWKU 25–18 MERC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWKU 28–14 MERC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWKU 32–11 MERC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWKU 35–7 MERC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWKU 39–4 MERC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWKU 42–0 MERC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)WKU 18–18 MERC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWKU 21–14 MERC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWKU 25–11 MERC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWKU 28–7 MERC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWKU 32–4 MERC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWKU 35–0 MERC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalPKWKU +14WKU +28WKU +42WKU +56margin →