CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 7:00 PM ET
#239Away
Mercyhurst
0-3 · AVR 29.3
7
Final
#134Home
Western Kentucky
0-3 · AVR 47.7
52
Forecast win probability
MERC 4.5%95.5% WKU
Projected margin
WKU by 29.5
Projected total
66
80% outcome range
WKU 8 to WKU 53
Win probability
WKU 95.5%
FinalMERC 7 · WKU 52model had +29.5, off by 15.5

Current team profiles

Mercyhurst
Western Kentucky

When Mercyhurst has the ball

Passing

No comparison
MERC offense
—
WKU defense
#41
EPA comparison
—
0.07
#41
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
MERC offense
—
WKU defense
#137
EPA comparison
—
0.30
#137
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
MERC offense
#73
WKU defense
#82
Success rates
43%
#73
42%
#82
Success rate
More metrics
0.05
#97
0.18
#118
EPA / play
0.20
#87
1.43
#133
Explosiveness
—
14%
#106
Havoc

When Western Kentucky has the ball

Passing

No comparison
MERC defense
—
WKU offense
#114
EPA comparison
—
0.07
#114
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
MERC defense
—
WKU offense
#116
EPA comparison
—
-0.02
#116
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
MERC defense
#119
WKU offense
#119
Success rates
49%
#119
38%
#119
Success rate
More metrics
0.20
#104
0.03
#113
EPA / play
0.23
#100
1.26
#54
Explosiveness
—
15%
#84
Havoc

Current key players

Mercyhurst
DBBraylon Beckwith
45 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
83.2
Coverage
73.7
Targets allowed
9
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
74
Passer rating allowed
52.3
Missed tackles
0
80.047/1765
LBCorey Cobb Jr.
6 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
78.2
Coverage
71.6
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
9
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
76.480/1054
TECamden Lewis
12 rec · 112 yds · 1 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
75.8
Run blocking
55.1
Penalties
1
74.022/526
LBJordan Brown
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
61.9
Coverage
71.6
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
73.6131/1054
KThomas O'Neill
34 punts · 0.0 avg
72.959/416
LBMaverick Clark
4 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
70.8
Coverage
71.4
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
11
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
71.7196/1054
Western Kentucky
QBCaleb McMickle
3 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
63.6230/729
LBJoshua Mensah
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
70.2
Coverage
71.9
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
2
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
77.0140/1796
WRJonathan Stafford Jr.
30 rec · 266 yds · 0 TD
74.0148/2069
DBBraxton Myers
7 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
62.2
Coverage
73.4
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
24
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
2
73.2265/2969
RBKalib Hicks
22 yds · 0 TD · 3.1 YPC
71.3275/1044
DBJaylen Lewis
40 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
63.7
Coverage
72.7
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
5
Yards allowed
31
Passer rating allowed
119.6
Missed tackles
6
70.1437/2969
Availability reports · 5
  • Nigel Johnson · WRQues. · 2026-10-09

    Johnson is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against Sam Houston on Wednesday.

  • Griffin Reimer · TEQues. · 2026-10-09

    Reimer is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Sam Houston on Wednesday.

  • Sincere Baines · RBQues. · 2026-10-09

    Baines is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will suit up against the Sam Houston on Wednesday.

  • Adrion Boyd · RBQues. · 2026-10-09

    Boyd is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Sam Houston on Wednesday.

  • K.D. Hutchinson · WRQues. · 2026-10-09

    Hutchinson is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against Sam Houston on Wednesday.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

MERC
WKU
vs
Offense
49.4
#124 of 125
QB
63.6
#123 of 138
67.0
#101 of 126
RB
68.8
#125 of 138
63.4
#115 of 126
WR
69.8
#82 of 138
74.0
#21 of 124
TE
68.9
#70 of 138
62.1
#92 of 125
OL
63.7
#108 of 138
Defense
66.3
#109 of 126
DL
69.4
#114 of 138
73.9
#39 of 126
LB
70.4
#101 of 138
69.0
#92 of 126
DB
69.1
#110 of 138
Common opponents