CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 7:00 PM ET
#223Away
Sam Houston
0-0 · AVR 36.7
21
Final
#123Home
Troy
0-0 · AVR 49.4
24
Forecast win probability
SHSU 24.4%75.6% TROY
Projected margin
TROY by 11.1
Projected total
52
80% outcome range
SHSU 9 to TROY 32
Win probability
TROY 75.6%
FinalSHSU 21 · TROY 24model had +11.1, off by 8.1

Current team profiles

Sam Houston
Troy

When Sam Houston has the ball

Passing

TROY defense
Higher-ranked profile
SHSU offense
#98
TROY defense
#71
EPA comparison
0.12
#98
0.15
#71
Pass EPA

Rushing

TROY defense
Higher-ranked profile
SHSU offense
#110
TROY defense
#56
EPA comparison
0.00
#110
0.02
#56
Rush EPA

Drive success

TROY defense
Higher-ranked profile
SHSU offense
#96
TROY defense
#64
Success rates
41%
#96
40%
#64
Success rate
More metrics
0.05
#107
0.07
#73
EPA / play
1.28
#41
1.35
#116
Explosiveness
18%
#122
17%
#59
Havoc

When Troy has the ball

Passing

SHSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
SHSU defense
#26
TROY offense
#101
EPA comparison
0.01
#26
0.11
#101
Pass EPA

Rushing

TROY offense
Higher-ranked profile
SHSU defense
#134
TROY offense
#45
EPA comparison
0.26
#134
0.16
#45
Rush EPA

Drive success

TROY offense
Higher-ranked profile
SHSU defense
#95
TROY offense
#79
Success rates
43%
#95
43%
#79
Success rate
More metrics
0.13
#98
0.13
#78
EPA / play
1.22
#70
1.26
#47
Explosiveness
20%
#18
17%
#114
Havoc

Current key players

Sam Houston
QBBrett Holloway
64 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT
90.619/729
SCameron Franklin
7 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
77.3
Coverage
85.4
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
12
Passer rating allowed
29.2
Missed tackles
1
87.416/2969
LBCa'lub Holloway
3 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.0
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
1
85.235/1796
RBAh'Marion Gaines-Smith
21 yds · 0 TD · 7.0 YPC
77.0136/1044
LBCole Worthington
1 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
71.1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
74.2210/1796
SRailyn Adams
18 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
76.4
Coverage
71.2
Targets allowed
8
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
26
Passer rating allowed
7.3
Missed tackles
5
73.9235/2969
Availability reports · 2
  • Brock Kuhl · TEout · 2026-10-08

    Kuhl is battling with an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Max Whisner · TEQues. · 2026-10-09

    Whisner is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face Hilltoppers on Wednesday.

Troy
QBGoose Crowder
822 yds · 7 TD · 4 INT
60.7263/729
SJustin Powe
26 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
84.7
Coverage
78.7
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
37
Passer rating allowed
118.1
Missed tackles
3
80.952/2969
RBGavin Griffin
259 yds · 0 TD · 4.8 YPC
77.6124/1044
DBDonnie Smith
14 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
58.0
Coverage
67.2
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
31
Passer rating allowed
100.7
Missed tackles
5
73.3262/2969
SJamarion Keyes
17 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
78.5
Coverage
68.9
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
75
Passer rating allowed
94.3
Missed tackles
1
72.9285/2969
LBTJ Thompson
20 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
81.2
Coverage
67.7
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
23
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
72.3282/1796
Availability reports · 2
  • Jackson Worley · TEout · 2026-10-03

    Worley has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Fabian Rogosch · TEQues. · 2026-10-06

    Rogosch is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Louisiana on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

SHSU
TROY
vs
Offense
90.6
#17 of 138
QB
60.7
#130 of 138
75.4
#71 of 138
RB
76.6
#59 of 138
70.0
#80 of 138
WR
67.0
#121 of 138
63.3
#102 of 138
TE
69.3
#68 of 138
65.6
#90 of 138
OL
61.6
#123 of 138
Defense
74.7
#56 of 138
DL
64.1
#138 of 138
76.7
#47 of 138
LB
69.1
#112 of 138
73.4
#52 of 138
DB
72.0
#71 of 138
Common opponents