AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 7:00 PM
#137Away
Sam Houston
0-0 · AVR 21.9
16p
#95Home
Troy
0-0 · AVR 41.7
36p
SHSU 8%92% TROY
Spread
TROY -20.2
Total
52
Moneyline
SHSU+1109TROY-1109
Against the market
TROY +3.7line TROY -16.5

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SHSU advantageevenTROY advantage →
SHSU throw
TROY coverage #45TROY pass rush #124
TROY +40
SHSU run
TROY +13
TROY throw
TROY +8
TROY run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when SHSU throws
Chris Reed
vs
Jonathan Pennix
X · SHSU
CB1 · TROY
43.4
83.7
TROY +40
when SHSU runs
Landan Brown
vs
TJ Thompson
RB · SHSU
MLB · TROY
57.0
68.5
TROY +11
when TROY runs
Jordan Lovett
vs
Dean Ford
RB · TROY
MLB · SHSU
50.3
53.9
SHSU +4
off the edge· hunting Kilcrease
Patrick Screws Jr.
vs
Dylan Frazier
LT · TROY
EDGE · SHSU
33.0
69.5
SHSU +36
over the middle
Max Whisner
vs
Joe Lott
TE · SHSU
FS · TROY
37.2
62.8
TROY +26
when TROY throws
TJ Lott
vs
Tyler Bailey
X · TROY
CB1 · SHSU
51.9
41.3
TROY +11

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Sam Houston
RBLandan Brown
57.0141/514
LBDean Ford
53.9406/878
LBEli Wallace
50.0482/878
WRChris Reed
43.4511/777
QBLandyn Locke
42.0257/308
STyler Bailey
41.3998/1427
Troy
CBJonathan Pennix
83.758/1427
DBDonnie Smith
78.9102/1427
LBTJ Thompson
68.5169/878
SMarcus Goree Jr.
67.5292/1427
LBLuke Hodge
61.8257/878
WRTJ Lott
51.9264/777

Projected margin

80% between 3 and 40
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTROY +20.2MKT95% interval: -8 to 4980% interval: 3 to 40+3+40SHSU wins 8%TROY wins 92%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TROY 35–14 SHSUTROY 32–39 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTROY 35–35 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTROY 39–32 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTROY 42–28 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTROY 46–25 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTROY 49–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTROY 53–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTROY 56–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTROY 60–11 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTROY 28–35 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTROY 32–32 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTROY 35–28 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTROY 39–25 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTROY 42–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTROY 46–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTROY 49–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTROY 53–11 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTROY 56–7 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTROY 25–32 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTROY 28–28 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTROY 32–25 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTROY 35–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTROY 39–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesTROY 42–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTROY 46–11 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTROY 49–7 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTROY 53–4 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTROY 21–28 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTROY 25–25 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTROY 28–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTROY 32–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTROY 35–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesTROY 39–11 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTROY 42–7 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTROY 46–4 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTROY 49–0 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTROY 18–25 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTROY 21–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTROY 25–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTROY 28–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTROY 32–11 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTROY 35–7 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTROY 39–4 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTROY 42–0 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)TROY 14–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTROY 18–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTROY 21–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTROY 25–11 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTROY 28–7 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTROY 32–4 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTROY 35–0 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)TROY 11–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTROY 14–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTROY 18–11 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTROY 21–7 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTROY 25–4 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTROY 28–0 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalSHSU +7TROY +7TROY +21TROY +35TROY +49margin →