CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 9:00 PM ET
#222Away
Mercyhurst
0-0 · AVR 37.3
14
Final
#178Home
New Mexico State
0-0 · AVR 43.5
51
Forecast win probability
MERC 10.9%89.1% NMSU
Projected margin
NMSU by 19.7
Projected total
54
80% outcome range
MERC 1 to NMSU 40
Win probability
NMSU 89.1%
FinalMERC 14 · NMSU 51model had +19.7, off by 17.3

Current team profiles

Mercyhurst
New Mexico State

When Mercyhurst has the ball

Passing

No comparison
MERC offense
—
NMSU defense
#41
EPA comparison
—
0.07
#41
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
MERC offense
—
NMSU defense
#84
EPA comparison
—
0.07
#84
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
MERC offense
#73
NMSU defense
#67
Success rates
43%
#73
40%
#67
Success rate
More metrics
0.05
#97
0.05
#60
EPA / play
0.20
#87
1.16
#36
Explosiveness
—
14%
#97
Havoc

When New Mexico State has the ball

Passing

No comparison
MERC defense
—
NMSU offense
#108
EPA comparison
—
0.09
#108
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
MERC defense
—
NMSU offense
#88
EPA comparison
—
0.06
#88
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
MERC defense
#119
NMSU offense
#99
Success rates
49%
#119
41%
#99
Success rate
More metrics
0.20
#104
0.02
#115
EPA / play
0.23
#100
1.38
#12
Explosiveness
—
17%
#119
Havoc

Current key players

Mercyhurst
DBBraylon Beckwith
45 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
83.2
Coverage
73.7
Targets allowed
9
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
74
Passer rating allowed
52.3
Missed tackles
0
80.047/1765
LBCorey Cobb Jr.
6 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
78.2
Coverage
71.6
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
9
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
76.480/1054
TECamden Lewis
12 rec · 112 yds · 1 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
75.8
Run blocking
55.1
Penalties
1
74.022/526
LBJordan Brown
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
61.9
Coverage
71.6
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
73.6131/1054
KThomas O'Neill
34 punts · 0.0 avg
72.959/416
LBMaverick Clark
4 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
70.8
Coverage
71.4
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
11
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
71.7196/1054
New Mexico State
QBAdam Damante
345 yds · 2 TD · 1 INT
90.913/729
CBTwan Wilson
0 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
62.2
Coverage
60.0
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
83.931/2969
LBDrake Williams
1 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
73.6
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
79.984/1796
SNick Session
38 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
71.8
Coverage
81.0
Targets allowed
19
Rec allowed
14
Yards allowed
125
Passer rating allowed
51.3
Missed tackles
7
79.767/2969
RBJalen Brown
68 yds · 0 TD · 13.6 YPC
78.2105/1044
CBDe'Marcus Peters
18 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
73.9
Coverage
77.0
Targets allowed
19
Rec allowed
11
Yards allowed
144
Passer rating allowed
60.0
Missed tackles
1
77.4112/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Ilya Uvaydov · KQues. · 2026-10-08

    Uvaydov is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Sam Houston on Wednesday, October 21th.

  • Ray Lotten · TEQues. · 2026-10-08

    Lotten is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Sam Houston on Wednesday, October 2

  • Roscoe Burton · RBQues. · 2026-10-08

    Burton is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will suit up against Sam Houston on Wednesday, October 2

Position units

Position-unit comparison

MERC
NMSU
vs
Offense
49.4
#124 of 125
QB
90.9
#13 of 138
67.0
#101 of 126
RB
77.6
#50 of 138
63.4
#115 of 126
WR
72.3
#55 of 138
74.0
#21 of 124
TE
75.9
#34 of 138
62.1
#92 of 125
OL
65.9
#88 of 138
Defense
66.3
#109 of 126
DL
74.3
#61 of 138
73.9
#39 of 126
LB
70.9
#98 of 138
69.0
#92 of 126
DB
76.8
#18 of 138
Common opponents