AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 9:00 PM
Away
Mercyhurst
—
20p
#130Home
New Mexico State
0-0 · AVR 26.9
34p
MERC 16%84% NMSU
Spread
NMSU -14.4
Total
54
Moneyline
MERC+518NMSU-518
Against the market
MERC +10.1line NMSU -24.5

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
New Mexico State
SBernock Iyaout
74.2161/1427
LBSone Aupiu
68.2174/878
LBTory Gethers
67.9179/878
SNick Session
64.6369/1427
CBLorenzo Smith
51.3733/1427
WRBrodie Malone-Bradford
49.2335/777

also out — Josiah Thomas (TE)

Projected margin

80% between -5 and 34
-14-7+7+14PKNMSU +14.4MKT95% interval: -16 to 4580% interval: -5 to 34-5+34MERC wins 16%NMSU wins 84%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ NMSU 35–21 MERCNMSU 32–46 MERC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNMSU 35–42 MERC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNMSU 39–39 MERC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNMSU 42–35 MERC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNMSU 46–32 MERC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNMSU 49–28 MERC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNMSU 53–25 MERC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNMSU 56–21 MERC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNMSU 60–18 MERC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNMSU 28–42 MERC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNMSU 32–39 MERC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNMSU 35–35 MERC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNMSU 39–32 MERC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNMSU 42–28 MERC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNMSU 46–25 MERC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNMSU 49–21 MERC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNMSU 53–18 MERC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNMSU 56–14 MERC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNMSU 25–39 MERC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNMSU 28–35 MERC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNMSU 32–32 MERC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNMSU 35–28 MERC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNMSU 39–25 MERC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNMSU 42–21 MERC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNMSU 46–18 MERC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNMSU 49–14 MERC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNMSU 53–11 MERC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNMSU 21–35 MERC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNMSU 25–32 MERC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNMSU 28–28 MERC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNMSU 32–25 MERC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNMSU 35–21 MERC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNMSU 39–18 MERC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNMSU 42–14 MERC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNMSU 46–11 MERC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNMSU 49–7 MERC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNMSU 18–32 MERC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNMSU 21–28 MERC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNMSU 25–25 MERC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNMSU 28–21 MERC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNMSU 32–18 MERC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNMSU 35–14 MERC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNMSU 39–11 MERC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNMSU 42–7 MERC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNMSU 46–4 MERC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNMSU 14–28 MERC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNMSU 18–25 MERC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNMSU 21–21 MERC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNMSU 25–18 MERC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNMSU 28–14 MERC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNMSU 32–11 MERC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNMSU 35–7 MERC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNMSU 39–4 MERC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNMSU 42–0 MERC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNMSU 11–25 MERC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNMSU 14–21 MERC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNMSU 18–18 MERC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNMSU 21–14 MERC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNMSU 25–11 MERC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNMSU 28–7 MERC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNMSU 32–4 MERC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNMSU 35–0 MERC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalMERC +14PKNMSU +14NMSU +28NMSU +42margin →