AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 11:00 PM
#124Away
Middle Tennessee
0-0 · AVR 30.6
22p
#83Home
Marshall
0-0 · AVR 45.8
35p
MTSU 20%80% MRSH
Spread
MRSH -12.5
Total
57
Moneyline
MTSU+411MRSH-411
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MTSU advantageevenMRSH advantage →
MTSU throw
MRSH +25
MTSU run
MRSH +14
MRSH throw
MRSH protection #97
MRSH +50
MRSH run
MTSU +12

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MTSU runs
Antonio Martin
vs
Javae Gilmore
RB · MTSU
MLB · MRSH
51.1
81.8
MRSH +31
when MRSH runs
Jo'Shon Barbie
vs
Reggie Johnson
RB · MRSH
MLB · MTSU
51.6
79.4
MTSU +28
when MTSU throws
AJ Jones
vs
Boogie Trotter
X · MTSU
CB1 · MRSH
48.1
79.3
MRSH +31
off the edge· hunting Anderson-Lofton
Reese Tripp
vs
Braydin Ward
LT · MTSU
EDGE · MRSH
32.3
89.6
MRSH +57
when MRSH throws
De'Andre Tamarez
vs
James Johnson
X · MRSH
CB1 · MTSU
67.4
49.4
MRSH +18
off the edge· hunting Rio-Wilson
Tariq Montgomery
vs
Justin Bodford
LT · MRSH
EDGE · MTSU
32.0
79.4
MTSU +47

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Middle Tennessee
LBReggie Johnson
79.462/878
LBKorey Smith
56.1370/878
RBAntonio Martin
51.1261/514
SJames Johnson
49.4784/1427
WRAJ Jones
48.1370/777
WRCam'ron Lacy
46.6423/777
Marshall
LBJavae Gilmore
81.843/878
CBBoogie Trotter
79.397/1427
QBCarlos Del Rio-Wilson
76.328/308
DBCharles McCartherens
69.6250/1427
WRDe'Andre Tamarez
67.468/777
CBEddie Pleasant III
67.4293/1427

Projected margin

80% between -5 and 30
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMRSH +12.595% interval: -11.4 to 36.480% interval: -4.9 to 29.9-5+30MTSU wins 20%MRSH wins 80%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MRSH 35–21 MTSUMRSH 32–46 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMRSH 35–42 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMRSH 39–39 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMRSH 42–35 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMRSH 46–32 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMRSH 49–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMRSH 53–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMRSH 56–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMRSH 60–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMRSH 28–42 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMRSH 32–39 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMRSH 35–35 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMRSH 39–32 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMRSH 42–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMRSH 46–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMRSH 49–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMRSH 53–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMRSH 56–14 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMRSH 25–39 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMRSH 28–35 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMRSH 32–32 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMRSH 35–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMRSH 39–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMRSH 42–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMRSH 46–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMRSH 49–14 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMRSH 53–11 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMRSH 21–35 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMRSH 25–32 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMRSH 28–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMRSH 32–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMRSH 35–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMRSH 39–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMRSH 42–14 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMRSH 46–11 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMRSH 49–7 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMRSH 18–32 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMRSH 21–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMRSH 25–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMRSH 28–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMRSH 32–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMRSH 35–14 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMRSH 39–11 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMRSH 42–7 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMRSH 46–4 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMRSH 14–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMRSH 18–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMRSH 21–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMRSH 25–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMRSH 28–14 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMRSH 32–11 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMRSH 35–7 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMRSH 39–4 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMRSH 42–0 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMRSH 11–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMRSH 14–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMRSH 18–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMRSH 21–14 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMRSH 25–11 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMRSH 28–7 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMRSH 32–4 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMRSH 35–0 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalMTSU +14PKMRSH +14MRSH +28MRSH +42margin →