CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 7:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
MTSU 41.4%58.6% MRSH
Projected margin
MRSH by 2.8
Projected total
54
80% outcome range
MTSU 17 to MRSH 22
Win probability
MRSH 58.6%
FinalMTSU 26 · MRSH 28model had +2.8, off by 0.8

Current team profiles

Middle Tennessee
Marshall

When Middle Tennessee has the ball

Passing

MTSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
MTSU offense
#88
MRSH defense
#138
EPA comparison
0.14
#88
0.50
#138
Pass EPA

Rushing

MTSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
MTSU offense
#85
MRSH defense
#112
EPA comparison
0.07
#85
0.15
#112
Rush EPA

Drive success

MRSH defense
Higher-ranked profile
MTSU offense
#118
MRSH defense
#117
Success rates
39%
#118
46%
#117
Success rate
More metrics
0.10
#90
0.31
#135
EPA / play
1.20
#91
1.31
#107
Explosiveness
14%
#67
13%
#113
Havoc

When Marshall has the ball

Passing

MRSH offense
Higher-ranked profile
MTSU defense
#84
MRSH offense
#62
EPA comparison
0.19
#84
0.25
#62
Pass EPA

Rushing

MRSH offense
Higher-ranked profile
MTSU defense
#132
MRSH offense
#107
EPA comparison
0.24
#132
0.01
#107
Rush EPA

Drive success

MRSH offense
Higher-ranked profile
MTSU defense
#135
MRSH offense
#64
Success rates
51%
#135
44%
#64
Success rate
More metrics
0.21
#124
0.11
#85
EPA / play
1.12
#27
1.24
#66
Explosiveness
10%
#138
17%
#114
Havoc

Current key players

Middle Tennessee
QBRoman Gagliano
913 yds · 8 TD · 1 INT
63.0241/729
WRCam'ron Lacy
31 rec · 335 yds · 4 TD
82.635/2069
CBRicky Lee
3 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
56.0
Coverage
79.0
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
40
Passer rating allowed
106.3
Missed tackles
0
76.7138/2969
CBJackson Lowe
31 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
58.9
Coverage
68.3
Targets allowed
24
Rec allowed
18
Yards allowed
203
Passer rating allowed
127.6
Missed tackles
6
73.7247/2969
CBJason Hardy
11 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
57.3
Coverage
73.0
Targets allowed
13
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
84
Passer rating allowed
35.4
Missed tackles
2
69.7464/2969
WRZiyon Butler
3 rec · 59 yds · 0 TD
67.8351/2069
Marshall
QBCarlos Del Rio-Wilson
977 yds · 6 TD · 2 INT
72.8131/729
SKendell Anderson
3 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
68.4
Coverage
81.4
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
-4
Passer rating allowed
79.2
Missed tackles
0
81.744/2969
RBTJ Lester
107 yds · 2 TD · 4.9 YPC
76.3145/1044
LBBrysen Davies
4 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
71.1
Coverage
60.0
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
72.4281/1796
SPete Schuh
8 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
73.4
Coverage
61.8
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
0
71.1371/2969
STerrente Hinton
24 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
56.0
Coverage
67.9
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
8
Yards allowed
38
Passer rating allowed
82.5
Missed tackles
4
70.2430/2969
Position units

Position-unit comparison

MTSU
MRSH
vs
Offense
63.0
#125 of 138
QB
72.8
#91 of 138
64.2
#136 of 138
RB
72.7
#101 of 138
70.9
#74 of 138
WR
63.4
#136 of 138
58.2
#131 of 138
TE
65.9
#87 of 138
63.6
#109 of 138
OL
65.2
#93 of 138
Defense
70.4
#101 of 138
DL
75.2
#52 of 138
63.6
#136 of 138
LB
66.2
#129 of 138
71.4
#76 of 138
DB
71.2
#79 of 138
Common opponents