CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 6:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
MRSH 40.4%59.6% MOST
Projected margin
MOST by 3.6
Projected total
55
80% outcome range
MRSH 16 to MOST 24
Win probability
MOST 59.6%
FinalMRSH 30 · MOST 24model had +3.6, off by 9.6

Current team profiles

Marshall
Missouri State

When Marshall has the ball

Passing

MRSH offense
Higher-ranked profile
MRSH offense
#62
MOST defense
#122
EPA comparison
0.25
#62
0.36
#122
Pass EPA

Rushing

MRSH offense
Higher-ranked profile
MRSH offense
#107
MOST defense
#112
EPA comparison
0.01
#107
0.15
#112
Rush EPA

Drive success

MRSH offense
Higher-ranked profile
MRSH offense
#64
MOST defense
#134
Success rates
44%
#64
50%
#134
Success rate
More metrics
0.11
#85
0.25
#131
EPA / play
1.24
#66
1.07
#13
Explosiveness
17%
#114
14%
#95
Havoc

When Missouri State has the ball

Passing

MOST offense
Higher-ranked profile
MRSH defense
#138
MOST offense
#92
EPA comparison
0.50
#138
0.13
#92
Pass EPA

Rushing

MOST offense
Higher-ranked profile
MRSH defense
#112
MOST offense
#92
EPA comparison
0.15
#112
0.05
#92
Rush EPA

Drive success

MOST offense
Higher-ranked profile
MRSH defense
#117
MOST offense
#108
Success rates
46%
#117
39%
#108
Success rate
More metrics
0.31
#135
0.07
#100
EPA / play
1.31
#107
1.22
#78
Explosiveness
13%
#113
17%
#106
Havoc

Current key players

Marshall
QBCarlos Del Rio-Wilson
977 yds · 6 TD · 2 INT
72.8131/729
SKendell Anderson
3 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
68.4
Coverage
81.4
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
-4
Passer rating allowed
79.2
Missed tackles
0
81.744/2969
RBTJ Lester
107 yds · 2 TD · 4.9 YPC
76.3145/1044
LBBrysen Davies
4 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
71.1
Coverage
60.0
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
72.4281/1796
SPete Schuh
8 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
73.4
Coverage
61.8
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
0
71.1371/2969
STerrente Hinton
24 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
56.0
Coverage
67.9
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
8
Yards allowed
38
Passer rating allowed
82.5
Missed tackles
4
70.2430/2969
Missouri State
QBSkyler Locklear
699 yds · 4 TD · 1 INT
73.6126/729
CBJoel Boamah
15 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
68.9
Coverage
81.2
Targets allowed
18
Rec allowed
10
Yards allowed
127
Passer rating allowed
54.6
Missed tackles
1
80.950/2969
WRIsaiah Myers
17 rec · 342 yds · 2 TD
80.749/2069
RBRamone Green Jr.
186 yds · 2 TD · 4.8 YPC
76.0152/1044
SJerrick Martin
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
63.7
Coverage
76.8
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
0
75.3185/2969
TECash Pomeroy
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Run blocking
77.2
Penalties
0
74.648/1017
Availability reports · 3
  • James Rexroat · TEQues. · 2026-10-09

    Rexroat is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Kennesaw State on Wednesday.

  • Makai Cope · WRQues. · 2026-09-20

    Cope is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face Mustangs on Saturday, September 26th.

  • Josh Joyner · RBQues. · 2026-10-09

    Joyner is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face Kennesaw State on Wednesday.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

MRSH
MOST
vs
Offense
72.8
#91 of 138
QB
73.6
#88 of 138
72.7
#101 of 138
RB
74.7
#75 of 138
63.4
#136 of 138
WR
68.9
#94 of 138
65.9
#87 of 138
TE
74.6
#38 of 138
65.2
#93 of 138
OL
73.1
#27 of 138
Defense
75.2
#52 of 138
DL
66.7
#132 of 138
66.2
#129 of 138
LB
68.4
#118 of 138
71.2
#79 of 138
DB
71.1
#82 of 138
Common opponents