AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 10:30 PM
#83Away
Marshall
0-0 · AVR 45.8
34p
#125Home
Missouri State
0-0 · AVR 30.2
25p
MRSH 74%26% MOST
Spread
MRSH -9.3
Total
58
Moneyline
MRSH-286MOST+286
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MRSH advantageevenMOST advantage →
MRSH throw
MRSH protection #97
MRSH +33
MRSH run
MOST +16
MOST throw
MOST WR #45MOST protection #125
MRSH +10
MOST run
MOST backs #83
MRSH +18

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MOST throws
Jmariyae Robinson
vs
Boogie Trotter
X · MOST
CB1 · MRSH
76.8
79.3
dead even
when MOST runs
Ramone Green Jr.
vs
Javae Gilmore
RB · MOST
MLB · MRSH
61.8
81.8
MRSH +20
over the middle
Jeron Askren
vs
Daytione Smith
TE · MOST
FS · MRSH
59.4
62.5
MRSH +3
when MRSH throws
De'Andre Tamarez
vs
Dylan Dixson
X · MRSH
CB1 · MOST
67.4
53.2
MRSH +14
when MRSH runs
Jo'Shon Barbie
vs
Jared Lloyd
RB · MRSH
MLB · MOST
51.6
62.0
MOST +10
off the edge· hunting Rio-Wilson
Tariq Montgomery
vs
Kellen Lindstrom
LT · MRSH
EDGE · MOST
32.0
79.5
MOST +47

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Marshall
LBJavae Gilmore
81.843/878
CBBoogie Trotter
79.397/1427
QBCarlos Del Rio-Wilson
76.328/308
DBCharles McCartherens
69.6250/1427
WRDe'Andre Tamarez
67.468/777
CBEddie Pleasant III
67.4293/1427
Missouri State
WRJmariyae Robinson
76.828/777
LBJared Lloyd
62.0256/878
RBRamone Green Jr.
61.893/514
TEJeron Askren
59.458/287
LBCooper Roy
55.4383/878
SDylan Dixson
53.2670/1427

Projected margin

80% between -27 and 8
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMRSH +9.395% interval: -33.2 to 14.680% interval: -26.7 to 8.1-27+8MRSH wins 74%MOST wins 26%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MRSH 32–25 MOSTMOST 21–56 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMOST 25–53 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMOST 28–49 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMOST 32–46 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMOST 35–42 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMOST 39–39 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMOST 42–35 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMOST 46–32 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMOST 49–28 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMOST 18–53 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMOST 21–49 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMOST 25–46 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMOST 28–42 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMOST 32–39 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMOST 35–35 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMOST 39–32 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMOST 42–28 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMOST 46–25 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMOST 14–49 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMOST 18–46 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMOST 21–42 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMOST 25–39 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMOST 28–35 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMOST 32–32 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMOST 35–28 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMOST 39–25 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMOST 42–21 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMOST 11–46 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMOST 14–42 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMOST 18–39 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMOST 21–35 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMOST 25–32 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMOST 28–28 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMOST 32–25 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMOST 35–21 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMOST 39–18 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMOST 7–42 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMOST 11–39 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMOST 14–35 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMOST 18–32 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMOST 21–28 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMOST 25–25 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMOST 28–21 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMOST 32–18 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMOST 35–14 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMOST 4–39 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMOST 7–35 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMOST 11–32 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMOST 14–28 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMOST 18–25 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMOST 21–21 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMOST 25–18 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMOST 28–14 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMOST 32–11 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMOST 0–35 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMOST 4–32 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMOST 7–28 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMOST 11–25 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMOST 14–21 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMOST 18–18 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMOST 21–14 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMOST 25–11 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMOST 28–7 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalMRSH +35MRSH +21MRSH +7MOST +7MOST +21margin →