AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Wed Oct 7 · 11:00 PM
#89Away
Jacksonville State
0-1 · AVR 43.6
29p
#105Home
Kennesaw State
0-0 · AVR 38.1
25p
JXST 61%39% KENN
Spread
JXST -3.9
Total
54
Moneyline
JXST-158KENN+158
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← JXST advantageevenKENN advantage →
JXST throw
JXST +23
JXST run
JXST backs #119
KENN +25
KENN throw
JXST +48
KENN run
JXST +46

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Creel
Jeremiah Orr
vs
Marcus Patterson
LT · JXST
EDGE · KENN
65.3
72.4
KENN +7
when JXST throws
Deondre Johnson
vs
Kody Jones
X · JXST
CB1 · KENN
71.0
63.2
JXST +8
when KENN throws
Dylan Gary
vs
Rob Billings IV
X · KENN
CB1 · JXST
49.2
79.4
JXST +30
when JXST runs
Lucas Farrington
vs
Baron Hopson
RB · JXST
MLB · KENN
49.7
76.2
KENN +26
when KENN runs
Jonathan Mathis
vs
Walker O'Steen
RB · KENN
MLB · JXST
47.5
73.0
JXST +25
over the middle
Gerard Bullock Jr.
vs
Marc Woods
TE · KENN
FS · JXST
45.8
67.8
JXST +22

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Jacksonville State
SRob Billings IV
79.496/1427
CBTre'Quon Fegans
74.5158/1427
LBWalker O'Steen
73.0118/878
LBMorven Joseph
72.1121/878
SCaleb Nix
71.9193/1427
WRDeondre Johnson
71.048/777
Kennesaw State
LBBaron Hopson
76.294/878
LBDonovan Westmoreland
70.5137/878
DBKody Jones
63.2400/1427
DBTony Williams Jr.
60.3475/1427
DBIsaac Paul
57.4551/1427
WRDylan Gary
49.2333/777

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Jacksonville State
opponent
Kennesaw State
home+11.6
Middle Tennessee#124
+0.1away
home+17.8
Sam Houston#137
+6.4away
home+13.4
Missouri State#125
+2.0away
home+7.2
Florida International#109
+0.7home
away-6.0
Western Kentucky#75
-12.5away
away+2.6
Delaware#102
+1.2home

Projected margin

80% between -21 and 14
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKJXST +3.995% interval: -27.8 to 2080% interval: -21.3 to 13.5-21+14JXST wins 61%KENN wins 39%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ JXST 32–25 KENNKENN 21–56 JXST neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesKENN 25–53 JXST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKENN 28–49 JXST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKENN 32–46 JXST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesKENN 35–42 JXST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKENN 39–39 JXST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKENN 42–35 JXST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesKENN 46–32 JXST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKENN 49–28 JXST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKENN 18–53 JXST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKENN 21–49 JXST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKENN 25–46 JXST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKENN 28–42 JXST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKENN 32–39 JXST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesKENN 35–35 JXST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesKENN 39–32 JXST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKENN 42–28 JXST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKENN 46–25 JXST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKENN 14–49 JXST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKENN 18–46 JXST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKENN 21–42 JXST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesKENN 25–39 JXST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesKENN 28–35 JXST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesKENN 32–32 JXST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesKENN 35–28 JXST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesKENN 39–25 JXST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesKENN 42–21 JXST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKENN 11–46 JXST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKENN 14–42 JXST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKENN 18–39 JXST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKENN 21–35 JXST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKENN 25–32 JXST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesKENN 28–28 JXST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesKENN 32–25 JXST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesKENN 35–21 JXST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesKENN 39–18 JXST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKENN 7–42 JXST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKENN 11–39 JXST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKENN 14–35 JXST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKENN 18–32 JXST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesKENN 21–28 JXST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesKENN 25–25 JXST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesKENN 28–21 JXST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesKENN 32–18 JXST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesKENN 35–14 JXST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKENN 4–39 JXST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKENN 7–35 JXST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKENN 11–32 JXST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesKENN 14–28 JXST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesKENN 18–25 JXST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesKENN 21–21 JXST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesKENN 25–18 JXST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKENN 28–14 JXST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesKENN 32–11 JXST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKENN 0–35 JXST neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesKENN 4–32 JXST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKENN 7–28 JXST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKENN 11–25 JXST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKENN 14–21 JXST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesKENN 18–18 JXST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesKENN 21–14 JXST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKENN 25–11 JXST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKENN 28–7 JXST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomes77706356494235totalJXST +35JXST +21JXST +7KENN +7KENN +21margin →