AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Wed Oct 14
#109Away
Florida International
0-0 · AVR 36.2
24p
#89Home
Jacksonville State
0-1 · AVR 43.6
31p
FIU 31%69% JXST
Spread
JXST -7.2
Total
56
Moneyline
FIU+219JXST-219
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← FIU advantageevenJXST advantage →
FIU throw
FIU protection #99
JXST +12
FIU run
JXST +30
JXST throw
JXST +14
JXST run
JXST backs #119
FIU +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when JXST throws
Deondre Johnson
vs
Shamir Sterlin
X · JXST
CB1 · FIU
71.0
81.3
FIU +10
off the edge· hunting Creel
Jeremiah Orr
vs
Dante Anderson
LT · JXST
EDGE · FIU
65.3
74.1
FIU +9
when FIU throws
Maguire Anderson
vs
Rob Billings IV
X · FIU
CB1 · JXST
51.3
79.4
JXST +28
when FIU runs
Anthony Carrie
vs
Walker O'Steen
RB · FIU
MLB · JXST
57.2
73.0
JXST +16
when JXST runs
Lucas Farrington
vs
Brayshawn Littlejohn
RB · JXST
MLB · FIU
49.7
70.1
FIU +20
over the middle
Jackson Verdugo
vs
Marc Woods
TE · FIU
FS · JXST
47.0
67.8
JXST +21

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Florida International
DBShamir Sterlin
81.379/1427
DBJai-Ayviauynn Celestine
70.2233/1427
LBBrayshawn Littlejohn
70.1144/878
QBJJ Kohl
68.047/308
DBLawrence Johnson
61.5445/1427
RBAnthony Carrie
57.2136/514
Jacksonville State
SRob Billings IV
79.496/1427
CBTre'Quon Fegans
74.5158/1427
LBWalker O'Steen
73.0118/878
LBMorven Joseph
72.1121/878
SCaleb Nix
71.9193/1427
WRDeondre Johnson
71.048/777

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Florida International
opponent
Jacksonville State
home+6.9
Middle Tennessee#124
+11.6home
home+13.2
Sam Houston#137
+17.8home
home+8.8
Missouri State#125
+13.4home
away-2.0
Delaware#102
+2.6away
away-0.7
Kennesaw State#105
+3.9away
home+10.4
New Mexico State#130
+10.1away

Projected margin

80% between -10 and 25
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKJXST +7.295% interval: -16.7 to 31.180% interval: -10.2 to 24.6-10+25FIU wins 31%JXST wins 69%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ JXST 32–25 FIUJXST 28–49 FIU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesJXST 32–46 FIU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesJXST 35–42 FIU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesJXST 39–39 FIU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesJXST 42–35 FIU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesJXST 46–32 FIU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesJXST 49–28 FIU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesJXST 53–25 FIU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesJXST 56–21 FIU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesJXST 25–46 FIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesJXST 28–42 FIU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesJXST 32–39 FIU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesJXST 35–35 FIU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesJXST 39–32 FIU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesJXST 42–28 FIU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesJXST 46–25 FIU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesJXST 49–21 FIU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesJXST 53–18 FIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesJXST 21–42 FIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesJXST 25–39 FIU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesJXST 28–35 FIU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesJXST 32–32 FIU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesJXST 35–28 FIU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesJXST 39–25 FIU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesJXST 42–21 FIU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesJXST 46–18 FIU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesJXST 49–14 FIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesJXST 18–39 FIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesJXST 21–35 FIU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesJXST 25–32 FIU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesJXST 28–28 FIU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesJXST 32–25 FIU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesJXST 35–21 FIU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesJXST 39–18 FIU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesJXST 42–14 FIU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesJXST 46–11 FIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesJXST 14–35 FIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesJXST 18–32 FIU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesJXST 21–28 FIU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesJXST 25–25 FIU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesJXST 28–21 FIU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesJXST 32–18 FIU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesJXST 35–14 FIU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesJXST 39–11 FIU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesJXST 42–7 FIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesJXST 11–32 FIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesJXST 14–28 FIU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesJXST 18–25 FIU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesJXST 21–21 FIU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesJXST 25–18 FIU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesJXST 28–14 FIU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesJXST 32–11 FIU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesJXST 35–7 FIU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesJXST 39–4 FIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesJXST 7–28 FIU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesJXST 11–25 FIU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesJXST 14–21 FIU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesJXST 18–18 FIU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesJXST 21–14 FIU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesJXST 25–11 FIU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesJXST 28–7 FIU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesJXST 32–4 FIU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesJXST 35–0 FIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalFIU +21FIU +7JXST +7JXST +21JXST +35margin →