AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Wed Oct 14 · 11:30 PM
#105Away
Kennesaw State
0-0 · AVR 38.1
27p
#125Home
Missouri State
0-0 · AVR 30.2
25p
KENN 56%44% MOST
Spread
KENN -2.0
Total
52
Moneyline
KENN-127MOST+127
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← KENN advantageevenMOST advantage →
KENN throw
MOST +18
KENN run
MOST +26
MOST throw
MOST WR #45MOST protection #125
KENN +11
MOST run
MOST backs #83
KENN +49

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MOST throws
Jmariyae Robinson
vs
Kody Jones
X · MOST
CB1 · KENN
76.8
63.2
MOST +14
when MOST runs
Ramone Green Jr.
vs
Baron Hopson
RB · MOST
MLB · KENN
61.8
76.2
KENN +14
over the middle
Jeron Askren
vs
Alexander Ford
TE · MOST
FS · KENN
59.4
50.6
MOST +9
when KENN runs
Jonathan Mathis
vs
Jared Lloyd
RB · KENN
MLB · MOST
47.5
62.0
MOST +14
when KENN throws
Dylan Gary
vs
Dylan Dixson
X · KENN
CB1 · MOST
49.2
53.2
MOST +4
over the middle
Gerard Bullock Jr.
vs
Khalil Anderson
TE · KENN
FS · MOST
45.8
42.9
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Kennesaw State
LBBaron Hopson
76.294/878
LBDonovan Westmoreland
70.5137/878
DBKody Jones
63.2400/1427
DBTony Williams Jr.
60.3475/1427
DBIsaac Paul
57.4551/1427
WRDylan Gary
49.2333/777
Missouri State
WRJmariyae Robinson
76.828/777
LBJared Lloyd
62.0256/878
RBRamone Green Jr.
61.893/514
TEJeron Askren
59.458/287
LBCooper Roy
55.4383/878
SDylan Dixson
53.2670/1427

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Kennesaw State
opponent
Missouri State
home-3.9
Jacksonville State#89
-13.4away
home+1.2
Delaware#102
-8.3away
home+0.7
Florida International#109
-8.8away
home-2.5
Liberty#106
-7.0home
away-12.5
Western Kentucky#75
-16.9away
away+6.4
Sam Houston#137
+6.9home

Projected margin

80% between -19 and 15
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKKENN +2.095% interval: -25.9 to 21.980% interval: -19.4 to 15.4-19+15KENN wins 56%MOST wins 44%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MOST 25–25 KENNMOST 21–49 KENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMOST 25–46 KENN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMOST 28–42 KENN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMOST 32–39 KENN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMOST 35–35 KENN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMOST 39–32 KENN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMOST 42–28 KENN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMOST 46–25 KENN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMOST 49–21 KENN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMOST 18–46 KENN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMOST 21–42 KENN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMOST 25–39 KENN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMOST 28–35 KENN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMOST 32–32 KENN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMOST 35–28 KENN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMOST 39–25 KENN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMOST 42–21 KENN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMOST 46–18 KENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMOST 14–42 KENN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMOST 18–39 KENN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMOST 21–35 KENN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMOST 25–32 KENN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMOST 28–28 KENN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMOST 32–25 KENN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMOST 35–21 KENN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMOST 39–18 KENN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMOST 42–14 KENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMOST 11–39 KENN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMOST 14–35 KENN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMOST 18–32 KENN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMOST 21–28 KENN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMOST 25–25 KENN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMOST 28–21 KENN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMOST 32–18 KENN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMOST 35–14 KENN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMOST 39–11 KENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMOST 7–35 KENN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMOST 11–32 KENN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMOST 14–28 KENN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMOST 18–25 KENN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMOST 21–21 KENN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMOST 25–18 KENN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMOST 28–14 KENN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMOST 32–11 KENN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMOST 35–7 KENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMOST 4–32 KENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMOST 7–28 KENN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMOST 11–25 KENN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMOST 14–21 KENN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMOST 18–18 KENN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMOST 21–14 KENN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMOST 25–11 KENN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMOST 28–7 KENN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMOST 32–4 KENN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMOST 0–28 KENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMOST 4–25 KENN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMOST 7–21 KENN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMOST 11–18 KENN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMOST 14–14 KENN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMOST 18–11 KENN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMOST 21–7 KENN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMOST 25–4 KENN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMOST 28–0 KENN neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes70635649423528totalKENN +28KENN +14PKMOST +14MOST +28margin →