AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Tue Oct 20 · 11:00 PM
#124Away
Middle Tennessee
0-0 · AVR 30.6
23p
#109Home
Florida International
0-0 · AVR 36.2
30p
MTSU 32%68% FIU
Spread
FIU -6.9
Total
53
Moneyline
MTSU+216FIU-216
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MTSU advantageevenFIU advantage →
MTSU throw
FIU +35
MTSU run
FIU +28
FIU throw
FIU protection #99
FIU +34
FIU run
MTSU +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when FIU runs
Anthony Carrie
vs
Reggie Johnson
RB · FIU
MLB · MTSU
57.2
79.4
MTSU +22
when MTSU throws
AJ Jones
vs
Shamir Sterlin
X · MTSU
CB1 · FIU
48.1
81.3
FIU +33
when MTSU runs
Antonio Martin
vs
Brayshawn Littlejohn
RB · MTSU
MLB · FIU
51.1
70.1
FIU +19
off the edge· hunting Kohl
Antonio Tripp Jr.
vs
Justin Bodford
LT · FIU
EDGE · MTSU
38.2
79.4
MTSU +41
off the edge· hunting Anderson-Lofton
Reese Tripp
vs
Dante Anderson
LT · MTSU
EDGE · FIU
32.3
74.1
FIU +42
when FIU throws
Maguire Anderson
vs
James Johnson
X · FIU
CB1 · MTSU
51.3
49.4
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Middle Tennessee
LBReggie Johnson
79.462/878
LBKorey Smith
56.1370/878
RBAntonio Martin
51.1261/514
SJames Johnson
49.4784/1427
WRAJ Jones
48.1370/777
WRCam'ron Lacy
46.6423/777
Florida International
DBShamir Sterlin
81.379/1427
DBJai-Ayviauynn Celestine
70.2233/1427
LBBrayshawn Littlejohn
70.1144/878
QBJJ Kohl
68.047/308
DBLawrence Johnson
61.5445/1427
RBAnthony Carrie
57.2136/514

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Middle Tennessee
opponent
Florida International
away+3.8
Sam Houston#137
+13.2home
home+6.0
New Mexico State#130
+10.4home
away-11.6
Jacksonville State#89
-7.2away
away-10.1
Liberty#106
-5.7away
home-1.4
Delaware#102
-2.0away
home-0.1
Kennesaw State#105
-0.7away

Projected margin

80% between -11 and 24
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKFIU +6.995% interval: -17 to 30.880% interval: -10.5 to 24.3-10+24MTSU wins 32%FIU wins 68%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ FIU 32–25 MTSUFIU 28–49 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFIU 32–46 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFIU 35–42 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFIU 39–39 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFIU 42–35 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFIU 46–32 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFIU 49–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFIU 53–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFIU 56–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFIU 25–46 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFIU 28–42 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFIU 32–39 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFIU 35–35 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFIU 39–32 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFIU 42–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFIU 46–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFIU 49–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFIU 53–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFIU 21–42 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFIU 25–39 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFIU 28–35 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFIU 32–32 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFIU 35–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFIU 39–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFIU 42–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFIU 46–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFIU 49–14 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFIU 18–39 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFIU 21–35 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFIU 25–32 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFIU 28–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesFIU 32–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesFIU 35–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesFIU 39–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFIU 42–14 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFIU 46–11 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFIU 14–35 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFIU 18–32 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFIU 21–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFIU 25–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesFIU 28–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesFIU 32–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesFIU 35–14 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFIU 39–11 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFIU 42–7 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFIU 11–32 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFIU 14–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFIU 18–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFIU 21–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFIU 25–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesFIU 28–14 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFIU 32–11 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFIU 35–7 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFIU 39–4 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFIU 7–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFIU 11–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFIU 14–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFIU 18–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFIU 21–14 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFIU 25–11 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFIU 28–7 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFIU 32–4 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFIU 35–0 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalMTSU +21MTSU +7FIU +7FIU +21FIU +35margin →