AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Wed Oct 28 · 11:00 PM
#105Away
Kennesaw State
0-0 · AVR 38.1
26p
#124Home
Middle Tennessee
0-0 · AVR 30.6
25p
KENN 50%50% MTSU
Spread
KENN -0.1
Total
51
Moneyline
KENN-101MTSU+101
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← KENN advantageevenMTSU advantage →
KENN throw
even
KENN run
MTSU +22
MTSU throw
KENN +25
MTSU run
KENN +45

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MTSU runs
Antonio Martin
vs
Baron Hopson
RB · MTSU
MLB · KENN
51.1
76.2
KENN +25
when KENN runs
Jonathan Mathis
vs
Reggie Johnson
RB · KENN
MLB · MTSU
47.5
79.4
MTSU +32
when MTSU throws
AJ Jones
vs
Kody Jones
X · MTSU
CB1 · KENN
48.1
63.2
KENN +15
off the edge· hunting Anderson-Lofton
Reese Tripp
vs
Marcus Patterson
LT · MTSU
EDGE · KENN
32.3
72.4
KENN +40
when KENN throws
Dylan Gary
vs
James Johnson
X · KENN
CB1 · MTSU
49.2
49.4
dead even
over the middle
Tayvion Galloway
vs
Alexander Ford
TE · MTSU
FS · KENN
42.5
50.6
KENN +8

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Kennesaw State
LBBaron Hopson
76.294/878
LBDonovan Westmoreland
70.5137/878
DBKody Jones
63.2400/1427
DBTony Williams Jr.
60.3475/1427
DBIsaac Paul
57.4551/1427
WRDylan Gary
49.2333/777
Middle Tennessee
LBReggie Johnson
79.462/878
LBKorey Smith
56.1370/878
RBAntonio Martin
51.1261/514
SJames Johnson
49.4784/1427
WRAJ Jones
48.1370/777
WRCam'ron Lacy
46.6423/777

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Kennesaw State
opponent
Middle Tennessee
home-3.9
Jacksonville State#89
-11.6away
home+0.7
Florida International#109
-6.9away
home-2.5
Liberty#106
-10.1away
away+6.4
Sam Houston#137
+3.8away
home+1.2
Delaware#102
-1.4home
away-12.5
Western Kentucky#75
-10.1home

Projected margin

80% between -18 and 17
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKKENN +0.195% interval: -24 to 23.880% interval: -17.5 to 17.2-17+17KENN wins 50%MTSU wins 50%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MTSU 25–25 KENNMTSU 21–49 KENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMTSU 25–46 KENN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMTSU 28–42 KENN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMTSU 32–39 KENN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMTSU 35–35 KENN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMTSU 39–32 KENN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMTSU 42–28 KENN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMTSU 46–25 KENN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMTSU 49–21 KENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMTSU 18–46 KENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMTSU 21–42 KENN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMTSU 25–39 KENN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMTSU 28–35 KENN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMTSU 32–32 KENN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMTSU 35–28 KENN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMTSU 39–25 KENN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMTSU 42–21 KENN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMTSU 46–18 KENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMTSU 14–42 KENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMTSU 18–39 KENN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMTSU 21–35 KENN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMTSU 25–32 KENN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMTSU 28–28 KENN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMTSU 32–25 KENN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMTSU 35–21 KENN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMTSU 39–18 KENN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMTSU 42–14 KENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMTSU 11–39 KENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMTSU 14–35 KENN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMTSU 18–32 KENN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMTSU 21–28 KENN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMTSU 25–25 KENN neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMTSU 28–21 KENN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMTSU 32–18 KENN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMTSU 35–14 KENN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMTSU 39–11 KENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMTSU 7–35 KENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMTSU 11–32 KENN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMTSU 14–28 KENN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMTSU 18–25 KENN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMTSU 21–21 KENN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMTSU 25–18 KENN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMTSU 28–14 KENN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMTSU 32–11 KENN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMTSU 35–7 KENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMTSU 4–32 KENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMTSU 7–28 KENN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMTSU 11–25 KENN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMTSU 14–21 KENN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMTSU 18–18 KENN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMTSU 21–14 KENN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMTSU 25–11 KENN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMTSU 28–7 KENN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMTSU 32–4 KENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMTSU 0–28 KENN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMTSU 4–25 KENN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMTSU 7–21 KENN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMTSU 11–18 KENN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMTSU 14–14 KENN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMTSU 18–11 KENN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMTSU 21–7 KENN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMTSU 25–4 KENN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMTSU 28–0 KENN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes70635649423528totalKENN +28KENN +14PKMTSU +14MTSU +28margin →