CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 9 · Wed Oct 28 · 7:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
KENN 60.5%39.5% MTSU
Projected margin
KENN by 4.0
Projected total
50
80% outcome range
KENN 23 to MTSU 15
Win probability
KENN 60.5%

Current team profiles

Kennesaw State
Middle Tennessee

When Kennesaw State has the ball

Passing

MTSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
KENN offense
#101
MTSU defense
#84
EPA comparison
0.11
#101
0.19
#84
Pass EPA

Rushing

KENN offense
Higher-ranked profile
KENN offense
#51
MTSU defense
#132
EPA comparison
0.15
#51
0.24
#132
Rush EPA

Drive success

KENN offense
Higher-ranked profile
KENN offense
#53
MTSU defense
#135
Success rates
45%
#53
51%
#135
Success rate
More metrics
0.10
#87
0.21
#124
EPA / play
1.10
#126
1.12
#27
Explosiveness
14%
#60
10%
#138
Havoc

When Middle Tennessee has the ball

Passing

MTSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
KENN defense
#107
MTSU offense
#88
EPA comparison
0.28
#107
0.14
#88
Pass EPA

Rushing

KENN defense
Higher-ranked profile
KENN defense
#68
MTSU offense
#85
EPA comparison
0.04
#68
0.07
#85
Rush EPA

Drive success

KENN defense
Higher-ranked profile
KENN defense
#98
MTSU offense
#118
Success rates
43%
#98
39%
#118
Success rate
More metrics
0.14
#102
0.10
#90
EPA / play
1.08
#16
1.20
#91
Explosiveness
12%
#125
14%
#67
Havoc

Current key players

Kennesaw State
QBRickie Collins
734 yds · 2 TD · 1 INT
79.176/729
LBCorey Kelly
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
90.6
Coverage
60.0
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
6
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
1
87.922/1796
RBLatrelle Murrell
154 yds · 2 TD · 7.0 YPC
81.559/1044
LBZay Wilson
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
68.9
Coverage
61.7
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
13
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
78.1119/1796
WRJavon Rogers
9 rec · 194 yds · 0 TD
74.4136/2069
WRKeon Davis
3 rec · 23 yds · 0 TD
74.1144/2069
Availability reports · 2
  • Zion Booker · WRQues. · 2026-10-08

    Booker is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be in the lineup against Missouri St. on Wednesday, Octo

  • Gerard Bullock Jr. · TEQues. · 2026-10-08

    Bullock Jr. is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Missouri St. on Wednesday, October

Middle Tennessee
QBRoman Gagliano
913 yds · 8 TD · 1 INT
63.0241/729
WRCam'ron Lacy
31 rec · 335 yds · 4 TD
82.635/2069
CBRicky Lee
3 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
56.0
Coverage
79.0
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
40
Passer rating allowed
106.3
Missed tackles
0
76.7138/2969
CBJackson Lowe
31 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
58.9
Coverage
68.3
Targets allowed
24
Rec allowed
18
Yards allowed
203
Passer rating allowed
127.6
Missed tackles
6
73.7247/2969
CBJason Hardy
11 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
57.3
Coverage
73.0
Targets allowed
13
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
84
Passer rating allowed
35.4
Missed tackles
2
69.7464/2969
WRZiyon Butler
3 rec · 59 yds · 0 TD
67.8351/2069
Position units

Position-unit comparison

KENN
MTSU
vs
Offense
79.1
#60 of 138
QB
63.0
#125 of 138
78.9
#40 of 138
RB
64.2
#136 of 138
72.9
#48 of 138
WR
70.9
#74 of 138
52.4
#136 of 138
TE
58.2
#131 of 138
59.3
#135 of 138
OL
63.6
#109 of 138
Defense
72.2
#82 of 138
DL
70.4
#101 of 138
81.1
#16 of 138
LB
63.6
#136 of 138
69.8
#102 of 138
DB
71.4
#76 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Kennesaw State
opponent
Middle Tennessee
H+2.1
FIU#99
-9.9A
H-3.4
LIB#77
-15.3A
H-1.0
JXST#103
-10.0A
A+8.7
SHSU#125
+2.0A
H+4.8
DEL#119
-1.8H
A+0.1
WKU#122
-1.2H