AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Wed Oct 7 · 11:30 PM
#130Away
New Mexico State
0-0 · AVR 26.9
21p
#109Home
Florida International
0-0 · AVR 36.2
32p
NMSU 24%76% FIU
Spread
FIU -10.4
Total
53
Moneyline
NMSU+314FIU-314
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NMSU advantageevenFIU advantage →
NMSU throw
FIU +38
NMSU run
FIU +48
FIU throw
FIU protection #99
FIU +13
FIU run
NMSU +6

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when NMSU throws
Brodie Malone-Bradford
vs
Shamir Sterlin
X · NMSU
CB1 · FIU
49.2
81.3
FIU +32
when FIU throws
Maguire Anderson
vs
Bernock Iya
X · FIU
CB1 · NMSU
51.3
74.2
NMSU +23
when FIU runs
Anthony Carrie
vs
Sone Aupiu
RB · FIU
MLB · NMSU
57.2
68.2
NMSU +11
when NMSU runs
Dijon Stanley
vs
Brayshawn Littlejohn
RB · NMSU
MLB · FIU
48.5
70.1
FIU +22
off the edge· hunting Kohl
Antonio Tripp Jr.
vs
Reeves Baller
LT · FIU
EDGE · NMSU
38.2
64.0
NMSU +26
over the middle
Jackson Verdugo
vs
Walter Owens
TE · FIU
FS · NMSU
47.0
50.5
NMSU +3

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
New Mexico State
SBernock Iyaout
74.2161/1427
LBSone Aupiu
68.2174/878
LBTory Gethers
67.9179/878
SNick Session
64.6369/1427
CBLorenzo Smith
51.3733/1427
WRBrodie Malone-Bradford
49.2335/777

also out — Josiah Thomas (TE)

Florida International
DBShamir Sterlin
81.379/1427
DBJai-Ayviauynn Celestine
70.2233/1427
LBBrayshawn Littlejohn
70.1144/878
QBJJ Kohl
68.047/308
DBLawrence Johnson
61.5445/1427
RBAnthony Carrie
57.2136/514

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
New Mexico State
opponent
Florida International
away+0.2
Sam Houston#137
+13.2home
away-4.2
Missouri State#125
+8.8home
away-6.0
Middle Tennessee#124
+6.9home
home-5.0
Delaware#102
-2.0away
home-10.1
Jacksonville State#89
-7.2away
home-8.6
Liberty#106
-5.7away

Projected margin

80% between -7 and 28
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKFIU +10.495% interval: -13.5 to 34.380% interval: -7 to 27.8-7+28NMSU wins 24%FIU wins 76%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ FIU 32–25 NMSUFIU 28–49 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesFIU 32–46 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFIU 35–42 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFIU 39–39 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFIU 42–35 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFIU 46–32 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFIU 49–28 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFIU 53–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFIU 56–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFIU 25–46 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFIU 28–42 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFIU 32–39 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFIU 35–35 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFIU 39–32 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFIU 42–28 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFIU 46–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFIU 49–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFIU 53–18 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFIU 21–42 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFIU 25–39 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFIU 28–35 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFIU 32–32 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFIU 35–28 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesFIU 39–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesFIU 42–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFIU 46–18 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFIU 49–14 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFIU 18–39 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFIU 21–35 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFIU 25–32 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFIU 28–28 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFIU 32–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesFIU 35–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesFIU 39–18 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFIU 42–14 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFIU 46–11 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFIU 14–35 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFIU 18–32 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFIU 21–28 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFIU 25–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFIU 28–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesFIU 32–18 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesFIU 35–14 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFIU 39–11 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFIU 42–7 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFIU 11–32 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFIU 14–28 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFIU 18–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFIU 21–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFIU 25–18 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesFIU 28–14 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesFIU 32–11 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFIU 35–7 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFIU 39–4 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFIU 7–28 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesFIU 11–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFIU 14–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFIU 18–18 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFIU 21–14 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFIU 25–11 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFIU 28–7 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFIU 32–4 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFIU 35–0 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomes77706356494235totalNMSU +21NMSU +7FIU +7FIU +21FIU +35margin →