AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Tue Oct 13 · 11:00 PM
#102Away
Delaware
0-0 · AVR 39.0
28p
#124Home
Middle Tennessee
0-0 · AVR 30.6
27p
DEL 54%46% MTSU
Spread
DEL -1.4
Total
55
Moneyline
DEL-116MTSU+116
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← DEL advantageevenMTSU advantage →
DEL throw
DEL QB #6DEL protection #64
DEL +61
DEL run
DEL +25
MTSU throw
DEL +18
MTSU run
DEL +37

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when DEL runs
Jo Silver
vs
Reggie Johnson
RB · DEL
MLB · MTSU
66.9
79.4
MTSU +12
when MTSU runs
Antonio Martin
vs
Gavin Moul
RB · MTSU
MLB · DEL
51.1
80.0
DEL +29
off the edge· hunting Minicucci
Steven Demboski
vs
Justin Bodford
LT · DEL
EDGE · MTSU
50.6
79.4
MTSU +29
when DEL throws
Sean Wilson
vs
James Johnson
X · DEL
CB1 · MTSU
68.2
49.4
DEL +19
when MTSU throws
AJ Jones
vs
KT Seay
X · MTSU
CB1 · DEL
48.1
64.1
DEL +16
off the edge· hunting Anderson-Lofton
Reese Tripp
vs
Trace Scott III
LT · MTSU
EDGE · DEL
32.3
72.8
DEL +40

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Delaware
QBNick Minicucci
88.66/308
LBGavin Moul
80.055/878
LBBlake Matthews
68.7165/878
WRSean Wilson
68.264/777
RBJo Silver
66.969/514
SKT Seay
64.1383/1427
Middle Tennessee
LBReggie Johnson
79.462/878
LBKorey Smith
56.1370/878
RBAntonio Martin
51.1261/514
SJames Johnson
49.4784/1427
WRAJ Jones
48.1370/777
WRCam'ron Lacy
46.6423/777

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Delaware
opponent
Middle Tennessee
home-2.6
Jacksonville State#89
-11.6away
home-1.2
Liberty#106
-10.1away
home+2.0
Florida International#109
-6.9away
away-1.2
Kennesaw State#105
-0.1home
away-11.2
Western Kentucky#75
-10.1home
away+5.0
New Mexico State#130
+6.0home

Projected margin

80% between -19 and 16
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKDEL +1.495% interval: -25.4 to 22.580% interval: -18.8 to 15.9-19+16DEL wins 54%MTSU wins 46%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MTSU 28–28 DELMTSU 25–53 DEL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMTSU 28–49 DEL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMTSU 32–46 DEL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMTSU 35–42 DEL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMTSU 39–39 DEL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMTSU 42–35 DEL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMTSU 46–32 DEL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMTSU 49–28 DEL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMTSU 53–25 DEL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMTSU 21–49 DEL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMTSU 25–46 DEL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMTSU 28–42 DEL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMTSU 32–39 DEL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMTSU 35–35 DEL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMTSU 39–32 DEL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMTSU 42–28 DEL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMTSU 46–25 DEL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMTSU 49–21 DEL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMTSU 18–46 DEL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMTSU 21–42 DEL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMTSU 25–39 DEL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMTSU 28–35 DEL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMTSU 32–32 DEL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMTSU 35–28 DEL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMTSU 39–25 DEL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMTSU 42–21 DEL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMTSU 46–18 DEL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMTSU 14–42 DEL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMTSU 18–39 DEL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMTSU 21–35 DEL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMTSU 25–32 DEL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMTSU 28–28 DEL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMTSU 32–25 DEL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMTSU 35–21 DEL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMTSU 39–18 DEL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMTSU 42–14 DEL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMTSU 11–39 DEL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMTSU 14–35 DEL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMTSU 18–32 DEL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMTSU 21–28 DEL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMTSU 25–25 DEL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMTSU 28–21 DEL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMTSU 32–18 DEL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMTSU 35–14 DEL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMTSU 39–11 DEL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMTSU 7–35 DEL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMTSU 11–32 DEL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMTSU 14–28 DEL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMTSU 18–25 DEL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMTSU 21–21 DEL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMTSU 25–18 DEL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMTSU 28–14 DEL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMTSU 32–11 DEL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMTSU 35–7 DEL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMTSU 4–32 DEL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMTSU 7–28 DEL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMTSU 11–25 DEL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMTSU 14–21 DEL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMTSU 18–18 DEL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMTSU 21–14 DEL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMTSU 25–11 DEL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMTSU 28–7 DEL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMTSU 32–4 DEL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalDEL +28DEL +14PKMTSU +14MTSU +28margin →