AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Thu Oct 15
#75Away
Western Kentucky
0-0 · AVR 47.8
36p
#137Home
Sam Houston
0-0 · AVR 21.9
20p
WKU 87%13% SHSU
Spread
WKU -16.4
Total
56
Moneyline
WKU-659SHSU+659
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WKU advantageevenSHSU advantage →
WKU throw
WKU protection #118
WKU +32
WKU run
even
SHSU throw
WKU pass rush #101
WKU +51
SHSU run
WKU +5

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when SHSU throws
Chris Reed
vs
Jaylen Lewis
X · SHSU
CB1 · WKU
43.4
87.0
WKU +44
when SHSU runs
Landan Brown
vs
Joshua Mensah
RB · SHSU
MLB · WKU
57.0
58.1
dead even
when WKU runs
Ajay Allen
vs
Dean Ford
RB · WKU
MLB · SHSU
56.8
53.9
dead even
over the middle
Max Whisner
vs
Lataj Wright
TE · SHSU
FS · WKU
37.2
71.4
WKU +34
when WKU throws
K.D. Hutchinson
vs
Tyler Bailey
X · WKU
CB1 · SHSU
57.8
41.3
WKU +17
off the edge· hunting Jr.
Alec Johnson
vs
Dylan Frazier
LT · WKU
EDGE · SHSU
23.2
69.5
SHSU +46

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Western Kentucky
DBJaylen Lewis
87.028/1427
DBDave Herard
82.666/1427
DBXavion Griffin
71.8196/1427
QBRodney Tisdale Jr.
62.961/308
TEGriffin Reimer
58.168/287
LBJoshua Mensah
58.1332/878
Sam Houston
RBLandan Brown
57.0141/514
LBDean Ford
53.9406/878
LBEli Wallace
50.0482/878
WRChris Reed
43.4511/777
QBLandyn Locke
42.0257/308
STyler Bailey
41.3998/1427

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Western Kentucky
opponent
Sam Houston
home+6.0
Jacksonville State#89
-17.8away
home+16.9
Missouri State#125
-6.9away
away+2.5
Liberty#106
-16.4away
home+12.5
Kennesaw State#105
-6.4home
away+10.1
Middle Tennessee#124
-3.8home
away+13.6
New Mexico State#130
-0.2home

Projected margin

80% between -34 and 1
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWKU +16.495% interval: -40.3 to 7.580% interval: -33.7 to 1-34+1WKU wins 87%SHSU wins 13%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WKU 35–21 SHSUSHSU 18–60 WKU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSHSU 21–56 WKU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSHSU 25–53 WKU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSHSU 28–49 WKU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSHSU 32–46 WKU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSHSU 35–42 WKU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSHSU 39–39 WKU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSHSU 42–35 WKU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSHSU 46–32 WKU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesSHSU 14–56 WKU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSHSU 18–53 WKU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSHSU 21–49 WKU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSHSU 25–46 WKU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSHSU 28–42 WKU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSHSU 32–39 WKU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSHSU 35–35 WKU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSHSU 39–32 WKU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSHSU 42–28 WKU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSHSU 11–53 WKU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSHSU 14–49 WKU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSHSU 18–46 WKU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSHSU 21–42 WKU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSHSU 25–39 WKU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSHSU 28–35 WKU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSHSU 32–32 WKU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSHSU 35–28 WKU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSHSU 39–25 WKU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSHSU 7–49 WKU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSHSU 11–46 WKU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSHSU 14–42 WKU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSHSU 18–39 WKU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSHSU 21–35 WKU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSHSU 25–32 WKU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSHSU 28–28 WKU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSHSU 32–25 WKU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSHSU 35–21 WKU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSHSU 4–46 WKU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSHSU 7–42 WKU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSHSU 11–39 WKU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSHSU 14–35 WKU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSHSU 18–32 WKU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSHSU 21–28 WKU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSHSU 25–25 WKU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSHSU 28–21 WKU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSHSU 32–18 WKU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSHSU 0–42 WKU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSHSU 4–39 WKU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSHSU 7–35 WKU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSHSU 11–32 WKU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSHSU 14–28 WKU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSHSU 18–25 WKU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSHSU 21–21 WKU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSHSU 25–18 WKU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSHSU 28–14 WKU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)SHSU 0–35 WKU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSHSU 4–32 WKU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSHSU 7–28 WKU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSHSU 11–25 WKU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSHSU 14–21 WKU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSHSU 18–18 WKU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSHSU 21–14 WKU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSHSU 25–11 WKU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalWKU +42WKU +28WKU +14PKSHSU +14margin →