AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Tue Oct 20 · 11:00 PM
#125Away
Missouri State
0-0 · AVR 30.2
24p
#102Home
Delaware
0-0 · AVR 39.0
32p
MOST 28%72% DEL
Spread
DEL -8.3
Total
56
Moneyline
MOST+253DEL-253
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MOST advantageevenDEL advantage →
MOST throw
MOST WR #45MOST protection #125
even
MOST run
MOST backs #83
DEL +41
DEL throw
DEL QB #6DEL protection #64
DEL +44
DEL run
DEL +21

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MOST runs
Ramone Green Jr.
vs
Gavin Moul
RB · MOST
MLB · DEL
61.8
80.0
DEL +18
when MOST throws
Jmariyae Robinson
vs
KT Seay
X · MOST
CB1 · DEL
76.8
64.1
MOST +13
off the edge· hunting Minicucci
Steven Demboski
vs
Kellen Lindstrom
LT · DEL
EDGE · MOST
50.6
79.5
MOST +29
when DEL runs
Jo Silver
vs
Jared Lloyd
RB · DEL
MLB · MOST
66.9
62.0
DEL +5
when DEL throws
Sean Wilson
vs
Dylan Dixson
X · DEL
CB1 · MOST
68.2
53.2
DEL +15
over the middle
Elijah Sessoms
vs
Khalil Anderson
TE · DEL
FS · MOST
53.5
42.9
DEL +11

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Missouri State
WRJmariyae Robinson
76.828/777
LBJared Lloyd
62.0256/878
RBRamone Green Jr.
61.893/514
TEJeron Askren
59.458/287
LBCooper Roy
55.4383/878
SDylan Dixson
53.2670/1427
Delaware
QBNick Minicucci
88.66/308
LBGavin Moul
80.055/878
LBBlake Matthews
68.7165/878
WRSean Wilson
68.264/777
RBJo Silver
66.969/514
SKT Seay
64.1383/1427

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Missouri State
opponent
Delaware
away-8.8
Florida International#109
+2.0home
away-13.4
Jacksonville State#89
-2.6home
home-7.0
Liberty#106
-1.2home
away-16.9
Western Kentucky#75
-11.2away
home-2.0
Kennesaw State#105
-1.2away
home+4.2
New Mexico State#130
+5.0away

Projected margin

80% between -9 and 26
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKDEL +8.395% interval: -15.6 to 32.280% interval: -9.1 to 25.7-9+26MOST wins 28%DEL wins 72%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ DEL 32–25 MOSTDEL 28–49 MOST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesDEL 32–46 MOST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesDEL 35–42 MOST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesDEL 39–39 MOST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesDEL 42–35 MOST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesDEL 46–32 MOST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesDEL 49–28 MOST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesDEL 53–25 MOST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesDEL 56–21 MOST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesDEL 25–46 MOST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesDEL 28–42 MOST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesDEL 32–39 MOST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesDEL 35–35 MOST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesDEL 39–32 MOST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesDEL 42–28 MOST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesDEL 46–25 MOST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesDEL 49–21 MOST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesDEL 53–18 MOST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesDEL 21–42 MOST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesDEL 25–39 MOST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesDEL 28–35 MOST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesDEL 32–32 MOST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesDEL 35–28 MOST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesDEL 39–25 MOST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesDEL 42–21 MOST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesDEL 46–18 MOST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesDEL 49–14 MOST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesDEL 18–39 MOST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesDEL 21–35 MOST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesDEL 25–32 MOST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesDEL 28–28 MOST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesDEL 32–25 MOST neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesDEL 35–21 MOST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesDEL 39–18 MOST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesDEL 42–14 MOST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesDEL 46–11 MOST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesDEL 14–35 MOST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesDEL 18–32 MOST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesDEL 21–28 MOST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesDEL 25–25 MOST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesDEL 28–21 MOST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesDEL 32–18 MOST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesDEL 35–14 MOST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesDEL 39–11 MOST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesDEL 42–7 MOST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesDEL 11–32 MOST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesDEL 14–28 MOST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesDEL 18–25 MOST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesDEL 21–21 MOST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesDEL 25–18 MOST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesDEL 28–14 MOST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesDEL 32–11 MOST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesDEL 35–7 MOST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesDEL 39–4 MOST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesDEL 7–28 MOST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesDEL 11–25 MOST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesDEL 14–21 MOST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesDEL 18–18 MOST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesDEL 21–14 MOST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesDEL 25–11 MOST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesDEL 28–7 MOST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesDEL 32–4 MOST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesDEL 35–0 MOST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalMOST +21MOST +7DEL +7DEL +21DEL +35margin →