AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Thu Oct 22
#130Away
New Mexico State
0-0 · AVR 26.9
27p
#137Home
Sam Houston
0-0 · AVR 21.9
27p
NMSU 51%49% SHSU
Spread
NMSU -0.2
Total
55
Moneyline
NMSU-104SHSU+104
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NMSU advantageevenSHSU advantage →
NMSU throw
NMSU +7
NMSU run
SHSU +17
SHSU throw
NMSU +26
SHSU run
NMSU +15

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when SHSU runs
Landan Brown
vs
Sone Aupiu
RB · SHSU
MLB · NMSU
57.0
68.2
NMSU +11
when SHSU throws
Chris Reed
vs
Bernock Iya
X · SHSU
CB1 · NMSU
43.4
74.2
NMSU +31
when NMSU runs
Dijon Stanley
vs
Dean Ford
RB · NMSU
MLB · SHSU
48.5
53.9
SHSU +5
when NMSU throws
Brodie Malone-Bradford
vs
Tyler Bailey
X · NMSU
CB1 · SHSU
49.2
41.3
NMSU +8
over the middle
Max Whisner
vs
Walter Owens
TE · SHSU
FS · NMSU
37.2
50.5
NMSU +13
off the edge· hunting Locke
Isaac Sohn
vs
Reeves Baller
LT · SHSU
EDGE · NMSU
11.2
64.0
NMSU +53

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
New Mexico State
SBernock Iyaout
74.2161/1427
LBSone Aupiu
68.2174/878
LBTory Gethers
67.9179/878
SNick Session
64.6369/1427
CBLorenzo Smith
51.3733/1427
WRBrodie Malone-Bradford
49.2335/777

also out — Josiah Thomas (TE)

Sam Houston
RBLandan Brown
57.0141/514
LBDean Ford
53.9406/878
LBEli Wallace
50.0482/878
WRChris Reed
43.4511/777
QBLandyn Locke
42.0257/308
STyler Bailey
41.3998/1427

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
New Mexico State
opponent
Sam Houston
home-8.6
Liberty#106
-16.4away
home-10.1
Jacksonville State#89
-17.8away
home-13.6
Western Kentucky#75
-16.4home
away-10.4
Florida International#109
-13.2away
away-4.2
Missouri State#125
-6.9away
away-6.0
Middle Tennessee#124
-3.8home

Projected margin

80% between -18 and 17
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNMSU +0.295% interval: -24.1 to 23.780% interval: -17.6 to 17.1-18+17NMSU wins 51%SHSU wins 49%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ SHSU 28–28 NMSUSHSU 25–53 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSHSU 28–49 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSHSU 32–46 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSHSU 35–42 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSHSU 39–39 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSHSU 42–35 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSHSU 46–32 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSHSU 49–28 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSHSU 53–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSHSU 21–49 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSHSU 25–46 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSHSU 28–42 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSHSU 32–39 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSHSU 35–35 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSHSU 39–32 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSHSU 42–28 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSHSU 46–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSHSU 49–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSHSU 18–46 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSHSU 21–42 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSHSU 25–39 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSHSU 28–35 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSHSU 32–32 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSHSU 35–28 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSHSU 39–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSHSU 42–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSHSU 46–18 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSHSU 14–42 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSHSU 18–39 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSHSU 21–35 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSHSU 25–32 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSHSU 28–28 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesSHSU 32–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSHSU 35–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSHSU 39–18 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSHSU 42–14 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSHSU 11–39 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSHSU 14–35 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSHSU 18–32 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSHSU 21–28 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSHSU 25–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSHSU 28–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSHSU 32–18 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSHSU 35–14 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSHSU 39–11 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSHSU 7–35 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSHSU 11–32 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSHSU 14–28 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSHSU 18–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSHSU 21–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSHSU 25–18 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSHSU 28–14 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSHSU 32–11 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSHSU 35–7 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSHSU 4–32 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSHSU 7–28 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSHSU 11–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSHSU 14–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSHSU 18–18 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSHSU 21–14 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSHSU 25–11 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSHSU 28–7 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSHSU 32–4 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalNMSU +28NMSU +14PKSHSU +14SHSU +28margin →