AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Tue Oct 27 · 11:00 PM
#102Away
Delaware
0-0 · AVR 39.0
23p
#75Home
Western Kentucky
0-0 · AVR 47.8
34p
DEL 23%77% WKU
Spread
WKU -11.2
Total
56
Moneyline
DEL+335WKU-335
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← DEL advantageevenWKU advantage →
DEL throw
DEL QB #6DEL protection #64
DEL +16
DEL run
DEL +36
WKU throw
WKU protection #118
even
WKU run
DEL +43

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when DEL throws
Sean Wilson
vs
Jaylen Lewis
X · DEL
CB1 · WKU
68.2
87.0
WKU +19
when WKU runs
Ajay Allen
vs
Gavin Moul
RB · WKU
MLB · DEL
56.8
80.0
DEL +23
when DEL runs
Jo Silver
vs
Joshua Mensah
RB · DEL
MLB · WKU
66.9
58.1
DEL +9
over the middle
Elijah Sessoms
vs
Lataj Wright
TE · DEL
FS · WKU
53.5
71.4
WKU +18
when WKU throws
K.D. Hutchinson
vs
KT Seay
X · WKU
CB1 · DEL
57.8
64.1
DEL +6
off the edge· hunting Minicucci
Steven Demboski
vs
Zeiqui Lawton
LT · DEL
EDGE · WKU
50.6
61.1
WKU +10

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Delaware
QBNick Minicucci
88.66/308
LBGavin Moul
80.055/878
LBBlake Matthews
68.7165/878
WRSean Wilson
68.264/777
RBJo Silver
66.969/514
SKT Seay
64.1383/1427
Western Kentucky
DBJaylen Lewis
87.028/1427
DBDave Herard
82.666/1427
DBXavion Griffin
71.8196/1427
QBRodney Tisdale Jr.
62.961/308
TEGriffin Reimer
58.168/287
LBJoshua Mensah
58.1332/878

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Delaware
opponent
Western Kentucky
away-1.2
Kennesaw State#105
+12.5home
away+1.4
Middle Tennessee#124
+10.1away
away+5.0
New Mexico State#130
+13.6away
home-2.6
Jacksonville State#89
+6.0home
home+8.3
Missouri State#125
+16.9home
home-1.2
Liberty#106
+2.5away

Projected margin

80% between -6 and 29
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWKU +11.295% interval: -12.8 to 35.180% interval: -6.2 to 28.5-6+29DEL wins 23%WKU wins 77%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WKU 35–21 DELWKU 32–46 DEL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWKU 35–42 DEL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWKU 39–39 DEL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWKU 42–35 DEL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWKU 46–32 DEL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWKU 49–28 DEL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWKU 53–25 DEL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWKU 56–21 DEL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWKU 60–18 DEL neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesWKU 28–42 DEL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWKU 32–39 DEL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWKU 35–35 DEL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWKU 39–32 DEL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWKU 42–28 DEL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWKU 46–25 DEL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWKU 49–21 DEL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWKU 53–18 DEL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWKU 56–14 DEL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWKU 25–39 DEL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWKU 28–35 DEL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWKU 32–32 DEL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWKU 35–28 DEL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWKU 39–25 DEL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWKU 42–21 DEL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWKU 46–18 DEL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWKU 49–14 DEL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWKU 53–11 DEL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWKU 21–35 DEL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWKU 25–32 DEL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWKU 28–28 DEL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWKU 32–25 DEL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWKU 35–21 DEL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWKU 39–18 DEL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWKU 42–14 DEL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWKU 46–11 DEL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWKU 49–7 DEL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWKU 18–32 DEL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWKU 21–28 DEL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWKU 25–25 DEL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWKU 28–21 DEL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWKU 32–18 DEL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWKU 35–14 DEL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWKU 39–11 DEL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWKU 42–7 DEL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWKU 46–4 DEL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWKU 14–28 DEL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWKU 18–25 DEL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWKU 21–21 DEL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWKU 25–18 DEL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWKU 28–14 DEL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWKU 32–11 DEL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWKU 35–7 DEL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWKU 39–4 DEL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWKU 42–0 DEL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWKU 11–25 DEL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWKU 14–21 DEL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWKU 18–18 DEL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWKU 21–14 DEL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWKU 25–11 DEL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWKU 28–7 DEL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWKU 32–4 DEL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWKU 35–0 DEL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalDEL +14PKWKU +14WKU +28WKU +42margin →