AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Wed Oct 28
#137Away
Sam Houston
0-0 · AVR 21.9
24p
#125Home
Missouri State
0-0 · AVR 30.2
31p
SHSU 32%68% MOST
Spread
MOST -6.9
Total
56
Moneyline
SHSU+211MOST-211
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SHSU advantageevenMOST advantage →
SHSU throw
MOST +23
SHSU run
MOST +19
MOST throw
MOST WR #45MOST protection #125
MOST +26
MOST run
MOST backs #83
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when SHSU runs
Landan Brown
vs
Jared Lloyd
RB · SHSU
MLB · MOST
57.0
62.0
MOST +5
when MOST throws
Jmariyae Robinson
vs
Tyler Bailey
X · MOST
CB1 · SHSU
76.8
41.3
MOST +36
when MOST runs
Ramone Green Jr.
vs
Dean Ford
RB · MOST
MLB · SHSU
61.8
53.9
MOST +8
when SHSU throws
Chris Reed
vs
Dylan Dixson
X · SHSU
CB1 · MOST
43.4
53.2
MOST +10
off the edge· hunting Locke
Isaac Sohn
vs
Kellen Lindstrom
LT · SHSU
EDGE · MOST
11.2
79.5
MOST +68
over the middle
Jeron Askren
vs
Lyric Smith
TE · MOST
FS · SHSU
59.4
23.2
MOST +36

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Sam Houston
RBLandan Brown
57.0141/514
LBDean Ford
53.9406/878
LBEli Wallace
50.0482/878
WRChris Reed
43.4511/777
QBLandyn Locke
42.0257/308
STyler Bailey
41.3998/1427
Missouri State
WRJmariyae Robinson
76.828/777
LBJared Lloyd
62.0256/878
RBRamone Green Jr.
61.893/514
TEJeron Askren
59.458/287
LBCooper Roy
55.4383/878
SDylan Dixson
53.2670/1427

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Sam Houston
opponent
Missouri State
away-16.4
Liberty#106
-7.0home
home-0.2
New Mexico State#130
+4.2home
away-17.8
Jacksonville State#89
-13.4away
home-6.4
Kennesaw State#105
-2.0home
away-13.2
Florida International#109
-8.8away
home-16.4
Western Kentucky#75
-16.9away

Projected margin

80% between -11 and 24
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMOST +6.995% interval: -17 to 30.880% interval: -10.5 to 24.3-10+24SHSU wins 32%MOST wins 68%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MOST 32–25 SHSUMOST 28–49 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMOST 32–46 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMOST 35–42 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMOST 39–39 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMOST 42–35 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMOST 46–32 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMOST 49–28 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMOST 53–25 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMOST 56–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMOST 25–46 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMOST 28–42 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMOST 32–39 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMOST 35–35 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMOST 39–32 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMOST 42–28 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMOST 46–25 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMOST 49–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMOST 53–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMOST 21–42 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMOST 25–39 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMOST 28–35 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMOST 32–32 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMOST 35–28 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMOST 39–25 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMOST 42–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMOST 46–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMOST 49–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMOST 18–39 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMOST 21–35 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMOST 25–32 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMOST 28–28 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMOST 32–25 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMOST 35–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMOST 39–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMOST 42–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMOST 46–11 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMOST 14–35 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMOST 18–32 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMOST 21–28 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMOST 25–25 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMOST 28–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMOST 32–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMOST 35–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMOST 39–11 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMOST 42–7 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMOST 11–32 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMOST 14–28 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMOST 18–25 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMOST 21–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMOST 25–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMOST 28–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMOST 32–11 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMOST 35–7 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMOST 39–4 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMOST 7–28 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMOST 11–25 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMOST 14–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMOST 18–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMOST 21–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMOST 25–11 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMOST 28–7 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMOST 32–4 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMOST 35–0 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalSHSU +21SHSU +7MOST +7MOST +21MOST +35margin →