AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#125Away
Missouri State
0-0 · AVR 30.2
23p
#109Home
Florida International
0-0 · AVR 36.2
31p
MOST 28%72% FIU
Spread
FIU -8.8
Total
54
Moneyline
MOST+263FIU-263
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MOST advantageevenFIU advantage →
MOST throw
MOST WR #45MOST protection #125
FIU +20
MOST run
MOST backs #83
FIU +32
FIU throw
FIU protection #99
FIU +17
FIU run
MOST +10

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MOST throws
Jmariyae Robinson
vs
Shamir Sterlin
X · MOST
CB1 · FIU
76.8
81.3
FIU +4
when MOST runs
Ramone Green Jr.
vs
Brayshawn Littlejohn
RB · MOST
MLB · FIU
61.8
70.1
FIU +8
when FIU runs
Anthony Carrie
vs
Jared Lloyd
RB · FIU
MLB · MOST
57.2
62.0
MOST +5
off the edge· hunting Kohl
Antonio Tripp Jr.
vs
Kellen Lindstrom
LT · FIU
EDGE · MOST
38.2
79.5
MOST +41
over the middle
Jeron Askren
vs
Wesley Miller
TE · MOST
FS · FIU
59.4
51.1
MOST +8
when FIU throws
Maguire Anderson
vs
Dylan Dixson
X · FIU
CB1 · MOST
51.3
53.2
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Missouri State
WRJmariyae Robinson
76.828/777
LBJared Lloyd
62.0256/878
RBRamone Green Jr.
61.893/514
TEJeron Askren
59.458/287
LBCooper Roy
55.4383/878
SDylan Dixson
53.2670/1427
Florida International
DBShamir Sterlin
81.379/1427
DBJai-Ayviauynn Celestine
70.2233/1427
LBBrayshawn Littlejohn
70.1144/878
QBJJ Kohl
68.047/308
DBLawrence Johnson
61.5445/1427
RBAnthony Carrie
57.2136/514

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Missouri State
opponent
Florida International
away-8.3
Delaware#102
-2.0away
home+6.9
Sam Houston#137
+13.2home
home+4.2
New Mexico State#130
+10.4home
away-13.4
Jacksonville State#89
-7.2away
home-2.0
Kennesaw State#105
-0.7away
home-7.0
Liberty#106
-5.7away

Projected margin

80% between -9 and 26
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKFIU +8.895% interval: -15.2 to 32.780% interval: -8.6 to 26.1-9+26MOST wins 28%FIU wins 72%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ FIU 32–25 MOSTFIU 28–49 MOST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFIU 32–46 MOST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFIU 35–42 MOST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFIU 39–39 MOST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFIU 42–35 MOST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFIU 46–32 MOST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFIU 49–28 MOST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFIU 53–25 MOST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFIU 56–21 MOST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFIU 25–46 MOST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFIU 28–42 MOST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFIU 32–39 MOST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFIU 35–35 MOST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFIU 39–32 MOST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFIU 42–28 MOST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFIU 46–25 MOST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFIU 49–21 MOST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFIU 53–18 MOST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFIU 21–42 MOST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFIU 25–39 MOST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFIU 28–35 MOST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFIU 32–32 MOST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFIU 35–28 MOST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFIU 39–25 MOST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesFIU 42–21 MOST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFIU 46–18 MOST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFIU 49–14 MOST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFIU 18–39 MOST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFIU 21–35 MOST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFIU 25–32 MOST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFIU 28–28 MOST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesFIU 32–25 MOST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesFIU 35–21 MOST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesFIU 39–18 MOST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFIU 42–14 MOST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFIU 46–11 MOST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFIU 14–35 MOST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFIU 18–32 MOST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFIU 21–28 MOST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFIU 25–25 MOST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFIU 28–21 MOST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesFIU 32–18 MOST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFIU 35–14 MOST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFIU 39–11 MOST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFIU 42–7 MOST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFIU 11–32 MOST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFIU 14–28 MOST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFIU 18–25 MOST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFIU 21–21 MOST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFIU 25–18 MOST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesFIU 28–14 MOST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesFIU 32–11 MOST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFIU 35–7 MOST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFIU 39–4 MOST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFIU 7–28 MOST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFIU 11–25 MOST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFIU 14–21 MOST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFIU 18–18 MOST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFIU 21–14 MOST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFIU 25–11 MOST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFIU 28–7 MOST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFIU 32–4 MOST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFIU 35–0 MOST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalMOST +21MOST +7FIU +7FIU +21FIU +35margin →