AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sun Nov 8
#137Away
Sam Houston
0-0 · AVR 21.9
20p
#89Home
Jacksonville State
0-1 · AVR 43.6
37p
SHSU 11%89% JXST
Spread
JXST -17.8
Total
57
Moneyline
SHSU+788JXST-788
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SHSU advantageevenJXST advantage →
SHSU throw
JXST +52
SHSU run
JXST +39
JXST throw
JXST +59
JXST run
JXST backs #119
JXST +23

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Creel
Jeremiah Orr
vs
Dylan Frazier
LT · JXST
EDGE · SHSU
65.3
69.5
SHSU +4
when SHSU runs
Landan Brown
vs
Walker O'Steen
RB · SHSU
MLB · JXST
57.0
73.0
JXST +16
when SHSU throws
Chris Reed
vs
Rob Billings IV
X · SHSU
CB1 · JXST
43.4
79.4
JXST +36
when JXST throws
Deondre Johnson
vs
Tyler Bailey
X · JXST
CB1 · SHSU
71.0
41.3
JXST +30
over the middle
Max Whisner
vs
Marc Woods
TE · SHSU
FS · JXST
37.2
67.8
JXST +31
when JXST runs
Lucas Farrington
vs
Dean Ford
RB · JXST
MLB · SHSU
49.7
53.9
SHSU +4

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Sam Houston
RBLandan Brown
57.0141/514
LBDean Ford
53.9406/878
LBEli Wallace
50.0482/878
WRChris Reed
43.4511/777
QBLandyn Locke
42.0257/308
STyler Bailey
41.3998/1427
Jacksonville State
SRob Billings IV
79.496/1427
CBTre'Quon Fegans
74.5158/1427
LBWalker O'Steen
73.0118/878
LBMorven Joseph
72.1121/878
SCaleb Nix
71.9193/1427
WRDeondre Johnson
71.048/777

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Sam Houston
opponent
Jacksonville State
away-13.2
Florida International#109
+7.2home
away-6.9
Missouri State#125
+13.4home
home-3.8
Middle Tennessee#124
+11.6home
home-16.4
Western Kentucky#75
-6.0away
home-6.4
Kennesaw State#105
+3.9away
home-0.2
New Mexico State#130
+10.1away

Projected margin

80% between 1 and 35
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKJXST +17.895% interval: -6.1 to 41.780% interval: 0.5 to 35.2+1+35SHSU wins 11%JXST wins 89%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ JXST 39–18 SHSUJXST 35–42 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesJXST 39–39 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesJXST 42–35 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesJXST 46–32 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesJXST 49–28 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesJXST 53–25 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesJXST 56–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesJXST 60–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesJXST 63–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesJXST 32–39 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesJXST 35–35 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesJXST 39–32 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesJXST 42–28 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesJXST 46–25 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesJXST 49–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesJXST 53–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesJXST 56–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesJXST 60–11 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesJXST 28–35 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesJXST 32–32 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesJXST 35–28 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesJXST 39–25 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesJXST 42–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesJXST 46–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesJXST 49–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesJXST 53–11 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesJXST 56–7 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesJXST 25–32 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesJXST 28–28 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesJXST 32–25 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesJXST 35–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesJXST 39–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesJXST 42–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesJXST 46–11 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesJXST 49–7 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesJXST 53–4 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesJXST 21–28 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesJXST 25–25 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesJXST 28–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesJXST 32–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesJXST 35–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesJXST 39–11 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesJXST 42–7 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesJXST 46–4 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesJXST 49–0 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesJXST 18–25 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesJXST 21–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesJXST 25–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesJXST 28–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesJXST 32–11 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesJXST 35–7 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesJXST 39–4 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesJXST 42–0 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)JXST 14–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesJXST 18–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesJXST 21–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesJXST 25–11 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesJXST 28–7 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesJXST 32–4 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesJXST 35–0 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalSHSU +7JXST +7JXST +21JXST +35JXST +49margin →