CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 7:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
SHSU 14.7%85.3% JXST
Projected margin
JXST by 16.7
Projected total
55
80% outcome range
SHSU 2 to JXST 35
Win probability
JXST 85.3%

Current team profiles

Sam Houston
Jacksonville State

When Sam Houston has the ball

Passing

JXST defense
Higher-ranked profile
SHSU offense
#98
JXST defense
#41
EPA comparison
0.12
#98
0.07
#41
Pass EPA

Rushing

JXST defense
Higher-ranked profile
SHSU offense
#110
JXST defense
#91
EPA comparison
0.00
#110
0.09
#91
Rush EPA

Drive success

JXST defense
Higher-ranked profile
SHSU offense
#96
JXST defense
#87
Success rates
41%
#96
42%
#87
Success rate
More metrics
0.05
#107
0.05
#62
EPA / play
1.28
#41
1.09
#19
Explosiveness
18%
#122
16%
#77
Havoc

When Jacksonville State has the ball

Passing

SHSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
SHSU defense
#26
JXST offense
#33
EPA comparison
0.01
#26
0.36
#33
Pass EPA

Rushing

JXST offense
Higher-ranked profile
SHSU defense
#134
JXST offense
#85
EPA comparison
0.26
#134
0.07
#85
Rush EPA

Drive success

JXST offense
Higher-ranked profile
SHSU defense
#95
JXST offense
#38
Success rates
43%
#95
47%
#38
Success rate
More metrics
0.13
#98
0.18
#54
EPA / play
1.22
#70
1.17
#100
Explosiveness
20%
#18
14%
#56
Havoc

Current key players

Sam Houston
QBBrett Holloway
64 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT
90.619/729
SCameron Franklin
7 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
77.3
Coverage
85.4
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
12
Passer rating allowed
29.2
Missed tackles
1
87.416/2969
LBCa'lub Holloway
3 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.0
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
1
85.235/1796
RBAh'Marion Gaines-Smith
21 yds · 0 TD · 7.0 YPC
77.0136/1044
LBCole Worthington
1 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
71.1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
74.2210/1796
SRailyn Adams
18 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
76.4
Coverage
71.2
Targets allowed
8
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
26
Passer rating allowed
7.3
Missed tackles
5
73.9235/2969
Availability reports · 2
  • Brock Kuhl · TEout · 2026-10-08

    Kuhl is battling with an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Max Whisner · TEQues. · 2026-10-09

    Whisner is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face Hilltoppers on Wednesday.

Jacksonville State
QBCaden Creel
1112 yds · 9 TD · 4 INT
68.6177/729
WRFranklin Baret Jr.
1 rec · 18 yds · 0 TD
86.421/2069
STy Sims
— tkl · — PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
75.5
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
0.0
Missed tackles
0
82.441/2969
LBWalker O'Steen
30 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
73.0
Coverage
77.3
Pressures
6
Pass-rush snaps
19
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
80.478/1796
SCaleb Nix
30 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.0
Coverage
82.0
Targets allowed
15
Rec allowed
8
Yards allowed
89
Passer rating allowed
43.5
Missed tackles
3
78.878/2969
LBMac Sanders
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
69.4
Coverage
77.1
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
78.5109/1796
Availability reports · 7
  • Andrew Paul · RBout · 2026-10-07

    Paul is battling with an undisclosed injury, and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Franklin Baret Jr. · WRQues. · 2026-10-08

    Baret Jr has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against FIU on Tuesday, October 13th.

  • Rollie Pinto · WRQues. · 2026-10-08

    Pinto is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air if he will suit up against FIU on Tuesday, October 13th.

  • Landon Watkins · WRQues. · 2026-10-08

    Watkins is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against FIU on Tuesday, October 13th.

  • AJ Watkins · WRQues. · 2026-10-08

    Watkins is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against FIU on Tuesday, October 13th.

  • Justus Savage · RBQues. · 2026-10-08

    Savage is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against FIU on Tuesday, October 13th.

  • Nabi Hoyt · WRQues. · 2026-10-08

    Hoyt is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against FIU on Tuesday, October 13th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

SHSU
JXST
vs
Offense
90.6
#17 of 138
QB
68.6
#108 of 138
75.4
#71 of 138
RB
73.8
#86 of 138
70.0
#80 of 138
WR
78.1
#17 of 138
63.3
#102 of 138
TE
72.3
#50 of 138
65.6
#90 of 138
OL
67.7
#70 of 138
Defense
74.7
#56 of 138
DL
70.9
#95 of 138
76.7
#47 of 138
LB
78.7
#32 of 138
73.4
#52 of 138
DB
77.3
#13 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Sam Houston
opponent
Jacksonville State
A-7.9
MOST#141
+11.5H
A-14.5
FIU#99
+4.8H
H-2.0
MTSU#150
+10.0H
H-8.7
KENN#113
+1.0A
H-4.8
NMSU#120
+4.0A
H-5.9
WKU#122
+2.8A