AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#102Away
Delaware
0-0 · AVR 39.0
30p
#130Home
New Mexico State
0-0 · AVR 26.9
25p
DEL 64%36% NMSU
Spread
DEL -5.0
Total
55
Moneyline
DEL-177NMSU+177
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← DEL advantageevenNMSU advantage →
DEL throw
DEL QB #6DEL protection #64
DEL +40
DEL run
DEL +25
NMSU throw
DEL +22
NMSU run
DEL +57

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when DEL throws
Sean Wilson
vs
Bernock Iya
X · DEL
CB1 · NMSU
68.2
74.2
NMSU +6
when DEL runs
Jo Silver
vs
Sone Aupiu
RB · DEL
MLB · NMSU
66.9
68.2
dead even
when NMSU runs
Dijon Stanley
vs
Gavin Moul
RB · NMSU
MLB · DEL
48.5
80.0
DEL +31
off the edge· hunting Minicucci
Steven Demboski
vs
Reeves Baller
LT · DEL
EDGE · NMSU
50.6
64.0
NMSU +13
when NMSU throws
Brodie Malone-Bradford
vs
KT Seay
X · NMSU
CB1 · DEL
49.2
64.1
DEL +15
over the middle
Elijah Sessoms
vs
Walter Owens
TE · DEL
FS · NMSU
53.5
50.5
DEL +3

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Delaware
QBNick Minicucci
88.66/308
LBGavin Moul
80.055/878
LBBlake Matthews
68.7165/878
WRSean Wilson
68.264/777
RBJo Silver
66.969/514
SKT Seay
64.1383/1427
New Mexico State
SBernock Iyaout
74.2161/1427
LBSone Aupiu
68.2174/878
LBTory Gethers
67.9179/878
SNick Session
64.6369/1427
CBLorenzo Smith
51.3733/1427
WRBrodie Malone-Bradford
49.2335/777

also out — Josiah Thomas (TE)

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Delaware
opponent
New Mexico State
home+8.3
Missouri State#125
-4.2away
home+2.0
Florida International#109
-10.4away
home-2.6
Jacksonville State#89
-10.1home
away+1.4
Middle Tennessee#124
-6.0away
home-1.2
Liberty#106
-8.6home
away-11.2
Western Kentucky#75
-13.6home

Projected margin

80% between -22 and 12
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKDEL +5.095% interval: -28.9 to 18.980% interval: -22.4 to 12.4-22+12DEL wins 64%NMSU wins 36%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ DEL 32–25 NMSUNMSU 21–56 DEL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNMSU 25–53 DEL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNMSU 28–49 DEL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNMSU 32–46 DEL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNMSU 35–42 DEL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNMSU 39–39 DEL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNMSU 42–35 DEL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNMSU 46–32 DEL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNMSU 49–28 DEL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNMSU 18–53 DEL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNMSU 21–49 DEL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNMSU 25–46 DEL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNMSU 28–42 DEL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNMSU 32–39 DEL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNMSU 35–35 DEL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNMSU 39–32 DEL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNMSU 42–28 DEL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNMSU 46–25 DEL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNMSU 14–49 DEL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNMSU 18–46 DEL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNMSU 21–42 DEL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNMSU 25–39 DEL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNMSU 28–35 DEL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNMSU 32–32 DEL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNMSU 35–28 DEL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNMSU 39–25 DEL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNMSU 42–21 DEL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNMSU 11–46 DEL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNMSU 14–42 DEL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNMSU 18–39 DEL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNMSU 21–35 DEL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNMSU 25–32 DEL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNMSU 28–28 DEL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNMSU 32–25 DEL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNMSU 35–21 DEL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNMSU 39–18 DEL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNMSU 7–42 DEL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNMSU 11–39 DEL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNMSU 14–35 DEL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNMSU 18–32 DEL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNMSU 21–28 DEL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNMSU 25–25 DEL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNMSU 28–21 DEL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNMSU 32–18 DEL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNMSU 35–14 DEL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNMSU 4–39 DEL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNMSU 7–35 DEL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNMSU 11–32 DEL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNMSU 14–28 DEL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNMSU 18–25 DEL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNMSU 21–21 DEL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNMSU 25–18 DEL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNMSU 28–14 DEL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNMSU 32–11 DEL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNMSU 0–35 DEL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNMSU 4–32 DEL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNMSU 7–28 DEL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNMSU 11–25 DEL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNMSU 14–21 DEL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNMSU 18–18 DEL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNMSU 21–14 DEL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNMSU 25–11 DEL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNMSU 28–7 DEL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalDEL +35DEL +21DEL +7NMSU +7NMSU +21margin →