AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#124Away
Middle Tennessee
0-0 · AVR 30.6
29p
#137Home
Sam Houston
0-0 · AVR 21.9
25p
MTSU 60%40% SHSU
Spread
MTSU -3.8
Total
54
Moneyline
MTSU-151SHSU+151
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MTSU advantageevenSHSU advantage →
MTSU throw
MTSU +11
MTSU run
even
SHSU throw
MTSU +5
SHSU run
MTSU +15

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when SHSU runs
Landan Brown
vs
Reggie Johnson
RB · SHSU
MLB · MTSU
57.0
79.4
MTSU +22
when MTSU runs
Antonio Martin
vs
Dean Ford
RB · MTSU
MLB · SHSU
51.1
53.9
dead even
off the edge· hunting Anderson-Lofton
Reese Tripp
vs
Dylan Frazier
LT · MTSU
EDGE · SHSU
32.3
69.5
SHSU +37
when SHSU throws
Chris Reed
vs
James Johnson
X · SHSU
CB1 · MTSU
43.4
49.4
MTSU +6
off the edge· hunting Locke
Isaac Sohn
vs
Justin Bodford
LT · SHSU
EDGE · MTSU
11.2
79.4
MTSU +68
when MTSU throws
AJ Jones
vs
Tyler Bailey
X · MTSU
CB1 · SHSU
48.1
41.3
MTSU +7

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Middle Tennessee
LBReggie Johnson
79.462/878
LBKorey Smith
56.1370/878
RBAntonio Martin
51.1261/514
SJames Johnson
49.4784/1427
WRAJ Jones
48.1370/777
WRCam'ron Lacy
46.6423/777
Sam Houston
RBLandan Brown
57.0141/514
LBDean Ford
53.9406/878
LBEli Wallace
50.0482/878
WRChris Reed
43.4511/777
QBLandyn Locke
42.0257/308
STyler Bailey
41.3998/1427

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Middle Tennessee
opponent
Sam Houston
home-0.1
Kennesaw State#105
-6.4home
away-6.9
Florida International#109
-13.2away
home-10.1
Western Kentucky#75
-16.4home
away-10.1
Liberty#106
-16.4away
away-11.6
Jacksonville State#89
-17.8away
home+6.0
New Mexico State#130
-0.2home

Projected margin

80% between -21 and 14
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMTSU +3.895% interval: -27.7 to 20.180% interval: -21.1 to 13.6-21+14MTSU wins 60%SHSU wins 40%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MTSU 32–25 SHSUSHSU 21–56 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesSHSU 25–53 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSHSU 28–49 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSHSU 32–46 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSHSU 35–42 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSHSU 39–39 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSHSU 42–35 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSHSU 46–32 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSHSU 49–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSHSU 18–53 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSHSU 21–49 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSHSU 25–46 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSHSU 28–42 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSHSU 32–39 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSHSU 35–35 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSHSU 39–32 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSHSU 42–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSHSU 46–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSHSU 14–49 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSHSU 18–46 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSHSU 21–42 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSHSU 25–39 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSHSU 28–35 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSHSU 32–32 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSHSU 35–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSHSU 39–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSHSU 42–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSHSU 11–46 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSHSU 14–42 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSHSU 18–39 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSHSU 21–35 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSHSU 25–32 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSHSU 28–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSHSU 32–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSHSU 35–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSHSU 39–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSHSU 7–42 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSHSU 11–39 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSHSU 14–35 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSHSU 18–32 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSHSU 21–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSHSU 25–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSHSU 28–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSHSU 32–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSHSU 35–14 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSHSU 4–39 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSHSU 7–35 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSHSU 11–32 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSHSU 14–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSHSU 18–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSHSU 21–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSHSU 25–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSHSU 28–14 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSHSU 32–11 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSHSU 0–35 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesSHSU 4–32 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSHSU 7–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSHSU 11–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSHSU 14–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSHSU 18–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSHSU 21–14 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSHSU 25–11 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSHSU 28–7 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomes77706356494235totalMTSU +35MTSU +21MTSU +7SHSU +7SHSU +21margin →