Passing
SHSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- MTSU offense
- #88
- SHSU defense
- #26
EPA comparison
0.14
#88
0.01
#26
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 2:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
MTSU 56.0%44.0% SHSU
- Projected margin
- MTSU by 2.0
- Projected total
- 53
- 80% outcome range
- MTSU 21 to SHSU 17
- Win probability
- MTSU 56.0%
Current team profiles
Middle TennesseeSam HoustonWhen Middle Tennessee has the ball
Rushing
MTSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- MTSU offense
- #85
- SHSU defense
- #134
EPA comparison
0.07
#85
0.26
#134
Rush EPA
Drive success
SHSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- MTSU offense
- #118
- SHSU defense
- #95
Success rates
39%
#118
43%
#95
Success rate
More metrics
0.10
#90
0.13
#98
EPA / play
1.20
#91
1.22
#70
Explosiveness
14%
#67
20%
#18
Havoc
When Sam Houston has the ball
Passing
MTSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- MTSU defense
- #84
- SHSU offense
- #98
EPA comparison
0.19
#84
0.12
#98
Pass EPA
Rushing
SHSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- MTSU defense
- #132
- SHSU offense
- #110
EPA comparison
0.24
#132
0.00
#110
Rush EPA
Drive success
SHSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- MTSU defense
- #135
- SHSU offense
- #96
Success rates
51%
#135
41%
#96
Success rate
More metrics
0.21
#124
0.05
#107
EPA / play
1.12
#27
1.28
#41
Explosiveness
10%
#138
18%
#122
Havoc
Current key players
Middle TennesseeQBRoman Gagliano
913 yds · 8 TD · 1 INT
63.0241/729
WRCam'ron Lacy
31 rec · 335 yds · 4 TD
82.635/2069
CBRicky Lee
3 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 56.0
- Coverage
- 79.0
- Targets allowed
- 4
- Rec allowed
- 3
- Yards allowed
- 40
- Passer rating allowed
- 106.3
- Missed tackles
- 0
76.7138/2969
CBJackson Lowe
31 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 58.9
- Coverage
- 68.3
- Targets allowed
- 24
- Rec allowed
- 18
- Yards allowed
- 203
- Passer rating allowed
- 127.6
- Missed tackles
- 6
73.7247/2969
CBJason Hardy
11 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 57.3
- Coverage
- 73.0
- Targets allowed
- 13
- Rec allowed
- 6
- Yards allowed
- 84
- Passer rating allowed
- 35.4
- Missed tackles
- 2
69.7464/2969
WRZiyon Butler
3 rec · 59 yds · 0 TD
67.8351/2069
Sam HoustonQBBrett Holloway
64 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT
90.619/729
SCameron Franklin
7 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 77.3
- Coverage
- 85.4
- Targets allowed
- 2
- Rec allowed
- 1
- Yards allowed
- 12
- Passer rating allowed
- 29.2
- Missed tackles
- 1
87.416/2969
LBCa'lub Holloway
3 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 80.0
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 1
85.235/1796
RBAh'Marion Gaines-Smith
21 yds · 0 TD · 7.0 YPC
77.0136/1044
LBCole Worthington
1 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 71.1
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
74.2210/1796
SRailyn Adams
18 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 76.4
- Coverage
- 71.2
- Targets allowed
- 8
- Rec allowed
- 3
- Yards allowed
- 26
- Passer rating allowed
- 7.3
- Missed tackles
- 5
73.9235/2969
Availability reports · 2
- Brock Kuhl · TEout · 2026-10-08
Kuhl is battling with an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.
- Max Whisner · TEQues. · 2026-10-09
Whisner is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face Hilltoppers on Wednesday.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
MTSUMiddle Tennessee
SHSUSam Houston
vs
Offense
63.0
#125 of 138
QB
Quarterback
90.6
#17 of 138
64.2
#136 of 138
RB
Running backs
75.4
#71 of 138
70.9
#74 of 138
WR
Receivers
70.0
#80 of 138
58.2
#131 of 138
TE
Tight ends
63.3
#102 of 138
63.6
#109 of 138
OL
Offensive line
65.6
#90 of 138
Defense
70.4
#101 of 138
DL
Defensive line
74.7
#56 of 138
63.6
#136 of 138
LB
Linebackers
76.7
#47 of 138
71.4
#76 of 138
DB
Secondary
73.4
#52 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Middle Tennessee
opponent
Sam Houston
Aaway-15.3
LIBLiberty#77-32.0Aaway
Aaway-10.0
JXSTJacksonville State#103-16.7Aaway
Hhome-1.2
WKUWestern Kentucky#122-5.9Hhome
Hhome-0.1
NMSUNew Mexico State#120-4.8Hhome
Hhome-4.0
KENNKennesaw State#113-8.7Hhome
Aaway-9.9
FIUFlorida International#99-14.5Aaway