CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 7:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
ULM 5.2%94.8% USA
Projected margin
USA by 23.9
Projected total
58
80% outcome range
USA 4 to USA 45
Win probability
USA 94.8%
FinalULM 35 · USA 52model had +23.9, off by 6.9

Current team profiles

UL Monroe
South Alabama

When UL Monroe has the ball

Passing

ULM offense
Higher-ranked profile
ULM offense
#111
USA defense
#122
EPA comparison
0.08
#111
0.36
#122
Pass EPA

Rushing

ULM offense
Higher-ranked profile
ULM offense
#100
USA defense
#125
EPA comparison
0.03
#100
0.20
#125
Rush EPA

Drive success

ULM offense
Higher-ranked profile
ULM offense
#88
USA defense
#137
Success rates
42%
#88
51%
#137
Success rate
More metrics
0.00
#121
0.27
#134
EPA / play
1.16
#102
1.36
#119
Explosiveness
17%
#120
17%
#52
Havoc

When South Alabama has the ball

Passing

USA offense
Higher-ranked profile
ULM defense
#132
USA offense
#37
EPA comparison
0.45
#132
0.34
#37
Pass EPA

Rushing

USA offense
Higher-ranked profile
ULM defense
#136
USA offense
#30
EPA comparison
0.27
#136
0.20
#30
Rush EPA

Drive success

USA offense
Higher-ranked profile
ULM defense
#136
USA offense
#69
Success rates
51%
#136
44%
#69
Success rate
More metrics
0.32
#137
0.23
#36
EPA / play
1.24
#84
1.33
#23
Explosiveness
11%
#133
13%
#34
Havoc

Current key players

UL Monroe
QBAustin Carlisle
312 yds · 3 TD · 3 INT
70.1152/729
LBBilly Pullen
8 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
69.8
Coverage
78.7
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
55
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
74.3206/1796
RBZach Palmer-Smith
68 yds · 1 TD · 4.9 YPC
73.9197/1044
SLarell Howling
5 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
76.0
Coverage
67.7
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
72.5308/2969
LBMarcus Ross
27 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
68.8
Coverage
70.5
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
35
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
71.6304/1796
WRJaiden Tucker
1 rec · 52 yds · 0 TD
70.7237/2069
Availability reports · 2
  • Jaydon Wright · RBout · 2026-10-03

    Wright is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and he is unlikely to be available against South Alabama on Saturday, October 3rd.

  • Derrick Jameson · RBQues. · 2026-10-01

    Jameson is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against the South Alabama on Saturday.

South Alabama
QBBishop Davenport
450 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
73.0129/729
RBPJ Martin
328 yds · 5 TD · 4.3 YPC
79.985/1044
CBDamyrion Darby
8 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
42.8
Coverage
79.8
Targets allowed
14
Rec allowed
10
Yards allowed
115
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
4
76.1156/2969
SDeon Callins
4 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
72.2
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
6
Passer rating allowed
79.2
Missed tackles
0
73.6252/2969
LBXavious Anderson Jr.
13 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
60.1
Coverage
75.4
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
7
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
0
73.4242/1796
CBJaylen Moson
13 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
53.1
Coverage
72.8
Targets allowed
24
Rec allowed
11
Yards allowed
116
Passer rating allowed
70.8
Missed tackles
5
70.0446/2969
Availability reports · 4
  • Brian Barnes · WRout · 2026-10-01

    Barnes has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.

  • Khatori Marion · WRout · 2026-10-01

    Marion has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.

  • Maddox Lynch · TEout · 2026-10-01

    Lynch has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.

  • D. White · WRQues. · 2026-10-09

    White is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Marshall on Tuesday, October 22nd.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

ULM
USA
vs
Offense
70.1
#99 of 138
QB
73.0
#90 of 138
73.6
#91 of 138
RB
78.0
#47 of 138
69.2
#92 of 138
WR
68.0
#110 of 138
60.2
#118 of 138
TE
61.4
#109 of 138
64.2
#103 of 138
OL
65.6
#91 of 138
Defense
70.7
#96 of 138
DL
65.2
#135 of 138
71.7
#91 of 138
LB
66.2
#128 of 138
63.4
#137 of 138
DB
69.4
#106 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

UL Monroe
opponent
South Alabama
H-3.0
SELA#172
+25.0H
A-15.5
ARST#91
+7.0A
A-14.5
TROY#111
+7.4H
A-16.8
APP#100
+5.1H
H-11.4
LT#87
+5.2H
H-15.3
UL#92
-4.0A
H-9.6
USM#139
+1.7A
H-10.7
MRSH#124
+0.6A