AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#132Away
UL Monroe
0-0 · AVR 26.4
19p
#100Home
South Alabama
0-0 · AVR 39.5
34p
ULM 15%85% USA
Spread
USA -15.1
Total
54
Moneyline
ULM+557USA-557
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ULM advantageevenUSA advantage →
ULM throw
even
ULM run
even
USA throw
USA +21
USA run
ULM front #130ULM linebackers #19
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when USA runs
Keenan Phillips
vs
Noah Flemmings
RB · USA
MLB · ULM
60.0
86.1
ULM +26
when ULM throws
JP Coulter
vs
Jayvon Henderson
X · ULM
CB1 · USA
48.1
69.9
USA +22
when USA throws
Anthony Eager
vs
Jabari Tiller
X · USA
CB1 · ULM
49.2
57.9
ULM +9
over the middle
Bryce Anderson
vs
Cole Blaylock
TE · ULM
FS · USA
61.0
42.7
ULM +18
off the edge· hunting Armenta
Drew Hutchinson
vs
Emmanuel Waller
LT · ULM
EDGE · USA
41.3
46.3
USA +5
over the middle
Rod Gibbs
vs
Armoni Rue
TE · USA
FS · ULM
43.7
41.2
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UL Monroe
LBNoah Flemmings
86.119/878
LBMarcus Ross
74.9106/878
LBJaeden Calender
67.4188/878
TEBryce Anderson
61.046/287
DBJabari Tiller
57.9535/1427
WRJP Coulter
48.1373/777
South Alabama
SJayvon Henderson
69.9241/1427
RBKeenan Phillips
60.0110/514
LBSeidrion Langston
59.9293/878
LBTirrell Johnson
56.7359/878
QBBishop Davenport
56.584/308
SDallas Young
56.5573/1427

Common opponents

8 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
UL Monroe
opponent
South Alabama
away-14.4
Troy#95
+3.2home
away-12.4
App State#103
+5.2home
away-12.7
Arkansas State#104
-0.1away
home-9.4
Louisiana Tech#94
+3.1home
home-9.3
Southern Miss#93
-1.7away
home-11.3
Louisiana#99
-3.7away
home-12.2
Marshall#83
-4.7away
home+7.7
SE Louisiana
+10.9home

Projected margin

80% between -2 and 33
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUSA +15.195% interval: -8.8 to 3980% interval: -2.3 to 32.5-2+33ULM wins 15%USA wins 85%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ USA 35–21 ULMUSA 32–46 ULM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSA 35–42 ULM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSA 39–39 ULM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSA 42–35 ULM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSA 46–32 ULM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSA 49–28 ULM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSA 53–25 ULM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSA 56–21 ULM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSA 60–18 ULM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSA 28–42 ULM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSA 32–39 ULM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSA 35–35 ULM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSA 39–32 ULM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSA 42–28 ULM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSA 46–25 ULM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSA 49–21 ULM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSA 53–18 ULM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSA 56–14 ULM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSA 25–39 ULM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSA 28–35 ULM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSA 32–32 ULM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSA 35–28 ULM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSA 39–25 ULM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSA 42–21 ULM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUSA 46–18 ULM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSA 49–14 ULM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSA 53–11 ULM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSA 21–35 ULM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSA 25–32 ULM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSA 28–28 ULM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSA 32–25 ULM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUSA 35–21 ULM neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUSA 39–18 ULM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSA 42–14 ULM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSA 46–11 ULM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSA 49–7 ULM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSA 18–32 ULM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSA 21–28 ULM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSA 25–25 ULM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSA 28–21 ULM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSA 32–18 ULM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUSA 35–14 ULM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSA 39–11 ULM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSA 42–7 ULM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSA 46–4 ULM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSA 14–28 ULM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSA 18–25 ULM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSA 21–21 ULM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSA 25–18 ULM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSA 28–14 ULM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUSA 32–11 ULM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSA 35–7 ULM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSA 39–4 ULM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSA 42–0 ULM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSA 11–25 ULM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSA 14–21 ULM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSA 18–18 ULM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSA 21–14 ULM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSA 25–11 ULM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSA 28–7 ULM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSA 32–4 ULM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSA 35–0 ULM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalULM +14PKUSA +14USA +28USA +42margin →