AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Wed Oct 7
#93Away
Southern Miss
0-0 · AVR 42.2
27p
#95Home
Troy
0-0 · AVR 41.7
29p
USM 43%57% TROY
Spread
TROY -2.6
Total
56
Moneyline
USM+132TROY-132
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← USM advantageevenTROY advantage →
USM throw
TROY coverage #45TROY pass rush #124
TROY +23
USM run
even
TROY throw
USM +48
TROY run
USM +28

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when TROY throws
TJ Lott
vs
Ishmael Ibraheem
X · TROY
CB1 · USM
51.9
95.9
USM +44
when USM throws
Mario Sanders
vs
Jonathan Pennix
X · USM
CB1 · TROY
52.8
83.7
TROY +31
when USM runs
Robert Briggs
vs
TJ Thompson
RB · USM
MLB · TROY
52.7
68.5
TROY +16
when TROY runs
Jordan Lovett
vs
Melvin Spriggs
RB · TROY
MLB · USM
50.3
70.3
USM +20
off the edge· hunting Kilcrease
Patrick Screws Jr.
vs
Jameer Lewis
LT · TROY
EDGE · USM
33.0
72.6
USM +40
over the middle
Jackson Worley
vs
MaLik Caswell
TE · TROY
FS · USM
38.1
60.1
USM +22

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Southern Miss
CBIshmael Ibraheem
95.94/1427
DBKolby Peavy
72.4184/1427
LBMelvin Spriggs
70.3140/878
DBCannon McClain
64.0385/1427
LBMathis Haygood
60.8270/878
SMaLik Caswell
60.1479/1427
Troy
CBJonathan Pennix
83.758/1427
DBDonnie Smith
78.9102/1427
LBTJ Thompson
68.5169/878
SMarcus Goree Jr.
67.5292/1427
LBLuke Hodge
61.8257/878
WRTJ Lott
51.9264/777

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Southern Miss
opponent
Troy
away-2.7
Louisiana Tech#94
+2.5home
away+9.3
UL Monroe#132
+14.4home
home+0.5
Louisiana#99
-4.4away
home-6.1
James Madison#55
-11.0away
home+1.7
South Alabama#100
-3.2away
home+4.1
Arkansas State#104
-0.8away

Projected margin

80% between -15 and 20
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTROY +2.695% interval: -21.3 to 26.580% interval: -14.8 to 20-15+20USM wins 43%TROY wins 57%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TROY 28–28 USMTROY 25–53 USM neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTROY 28–49 USM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTROY 32–46 USM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTROY 35–42 USM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTROY 39–39 USM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTROY 42–35 USM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTROY 46–32 USM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTROY 49–28 USM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTROY 53–25 USM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTROY 21–49 USM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTROY 25–46 USM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTROY 28–42 USM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTROY 32–39 USM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTROY 35–35 USM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTROY 39–32 USM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTROY 42–28 USM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTROY 46–25 USM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTROY 49–21 USM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTROY 18–46 USM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTROY 21–42 USM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTROY 25–39 USM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTROY 28–35 USM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTROY 32–32 USM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTROY 35–28 USM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTROY 39–25 USM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTROY 42–21 USM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTROY 46–18 USM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTROY 14–42 USM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTROY 18–39 USM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTROY 21–35 USM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTROY 25–32 USM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTROY 28–28 USM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTROY 32–25 USM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTROY 35–21 USM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTROY 39–18 USM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTROY 42–14 USM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTROY 11–39 USM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTROY 14–35 USM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTROY 18–32 USM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTROY 21–28 USM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTROY 25–25 USM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTROY 28–21 USM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTROY 32–18 USM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTROY 35–14 USM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTROY 39–11 USM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTROY 7–35 USM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTROY 11–32 USM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTROY 14–28 USM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTROY 18–25 USM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTROY 21–21 USM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTROY 25–18 USM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTROY 28–14 USM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTROY 32–11 USM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTROY 35–7 USM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTROY 4–32 USM neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTROY 7–28 USM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTROY 11–25 USM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTROY 14–21 USM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTROY 18–18 USM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTROY 21–14 USM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTROY 25–11 USM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTROY 28–7 USM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTROY 32–4 USM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalUSM +28USM +14PKTROY +14TROY +28margin →