Passing
TROY defense
Higher-ranked profile
- USM offense
- #111
- TROY defense
- #71
EPA comparison
0.08
#111
0.15
#71
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 6 · Tue Oct 6 · 8:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
USM 36.1%63.9% TROY
- Projected margin
- TROY by 6.0
- Projected total
- 49
- 80% outcome range
- USM 14 to TROY 28
- Win probability
- TROY 63.9%
FinalUSM 34 · TROY 55model had +6.0, off by 15.0
Current team profiles
Southern MissTroyWhen Southern Miss has the ball
Rushing
USM offense
Higher-ranked profile
- USM offense
- #30
- TROY defense
- #56
EPA comparison
0.20
#30
0.02
#56
Rush EPA
Drive success
USM offense
Higher-ranked profile
- USM offense
- #62
- TROY defense
- #64
Success rates
44%
#62
40%
#64
Success rate
More metrics
0.08
#95
0.07
#73
EPA / play
1.19
#94
1.35
#116
Explosiveness
15%
#73
17%
#59
Havoc
When Troy has the ball
Passing
TROY offense
Higher-ranked profile
- USM defense
- #103
- TROY offense
- #101
EPA comparison
0.27
#103
0.11
#101
Pass EPA
Rushing
TROY offense
Higher-ranked profile
- USM defense
- #134
- TROY offense
- #45
EPA comparison
0.26
#134
0.16
#45
Rush EPA
Drive success
TROY offense
Higher-ranked profile
- USM defense
- #110
- TROY offense
- #79
Success rates
45%
#110
43%
#79
Success rate
More metrics
0.20
#122
0.13
#78
EPA / play
1.24
#78
1.26
#47
Explosiveness
12%
#129
17%
#114
Havoc
Current key players
Southern MissQBEthan Hampton
419 yds · 2 TD · 4 INT
69.3163/729
LBMelvin Spriggs
10 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 89.4
- Coverage
- 62.7
- Pressures
- 0
- Pass-rush snaps
- 1
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 1
86.231/1796
WRMJ Johnson
9 rec · 120 yds · 0 TD
83.631/2069
DBKobi Albert
13 tkl · 1 PD · 3 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 74.7
- Coverage
- 83.7
- Targets allowed
- 18
- Rec allowed
- 9
- Yards allowed
- 52
- Passer rating allowed
- 16.7
- Missed tackles
- 0
83.334/2969
DBJonah Martinez
3 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 63.5
- Coverage
- 89.8
- Targets allowed
- 4
- Rec allowed
- 1
- Yards allowed
- 25
- Passer rating allowed
- 13.5
- Missed tackles
- 2
83.136/2969
DBLaquan Robinson
20 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 77.5
- Coverage
- 79.6
- Targets allowed
- 1
- Rec allowed
- 1
- Yards allowed
- 0
- Passer rating allowed
- 79.2
- Missed tackles
- 2
80.160/2969
Availability reports · 3
- Ethan Hampton · QBout · 2026-09-25
Hampton is nursing with a hand injury, and a timetable for return has yet to be established.
- Grant Page · WRout · 2026-09-22
Page is sidelined due to a dislocated elbow, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.
- Jaylen Himes · WRout · 2026-09-25
Himes is out of commission due to a foot injury, and he will miss an extended period.
TroyQBGoose Crowder
822 yds · 7 TD · 4 INT
60.7263/729
SJustin Powe
26 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 84.7
- Coverage
- 78.7
- Targets allowed
- 3
- Rec allowed
- 3
- Yards allowed
- 37
- Passer rating allowed
- 118.1
- Missed tackles
- 3
80.952/2969
RBGavin Griffin
259 yds · 0 TD · 4.8 YPC
77.6124/1044
DBDonnie Smith
14 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 58.0
- Coverage
- 67.2
- Targets allowed
- 3
- Rec allowed
- 2
- Yards allowed
- 31
- Passer rating allowed
- 100.7
- Missed tackles
- 5
73.3262/2969
SJamarion Keyes
17 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 78.5
- Coverage
- 68.9
- Targets allowed
- 7
- Rec allowed
- 4
- Yards allowed
- 75
- Passer rating allowed
- 94.3
- Missed tackles
- 1
72.9285/2969
LBTJ Thompson
20 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 81.2
- Coverage
- 67.7
- Pressures
- 2
- Pass-rush snaps
- 23
- Missed tackles
- 2
- Forced fumbles
- 0
72.3282/1796
Availability reports · 2
- Jackson Worley · TEout · 2026-10-03
Worley has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.
- Fabian Rogosch · TEQues. · 2026-10-06
Rogosch is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Louisiana on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
USMSouthern Miss
TROYTroy
vs
Offense
69.3
#103 of 138
QB
Quarterback
60.7
#130 of 138
71.1
#110 of 138
RB
Running backs
76.6
#59 of 138
74.2
#40 of 138
WR
Receivers
67.0
#121 of 138
70.8
#58 of 138
TE
Tight ends
69.3
#68 of 138
72.9
#28 of 138
OL
Offensive line
61.6
#123 of 138
Defense
70.4
#100 of 138
DL
Defensive line
64.1
#138 of 138
75.7
#55 of 138
LB
Linebackers
69.1
#112 of 138
76.2
#23 of 138
DB
Secondary
72.0
#71 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Southern Miss
opponent
Troy
Hhome-3.1
ULLouisiana#92-8.8Aaway
Hhome-14.9
JMUJames Madison#51-20.6Aaway
Hhome+2.0
ARSTArkansas State#91-3.7Aaway
Hhome-1.7
USASouth Alabama#96-7.4Aaway
Aaway+9.6
ULMUL Monroe#163+14.5Hhome
Aaway-4.5
LTLouisiana Tech#87+0.4Hhome