AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Tue Oct 20 · 11:30 PM
#100Away
South Alabama
0-0 · AVR 39.5
27p
#83Home
Marshall
0-0 · AVR 45.8
32p
USA 38%62% MRSH
Spread
MRSH -4.7
Total
59
Moneyline
USA+166MRSH-166
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← USA advantageevenMRSH advantage →
USA throw
MRSH +8
USA run
USA +9
MRSH throw
MRSH protection #97
MRSH +48
MRSH run
MRSH +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when USA runs
Keenan Phillips
vs
Javae Gilmore
RB · USA
MLB · MRSH
60.0
81.8
MRSH +22
when MRSH throws
De'Andre Tamarez
vs
Jayvon Henderson
X · MRSH
CB1 · USA
67.4
69.9
dead even
when USA throws
Anthony Eager
vs
Boogie Trotter
X · USA
CB1 · MRSH
49.2
79.3
MRSH +30
when MRSH runs
Jo'Shon Barbie
vs
Seidrion Langston
RB · MRSH
MLB · USA
51.6
59.9
USA +8
over the middle
Rod Gibbs
vs
Daytione Smith
TE · USA
FS · MRSH
43.7
62.5
MRSH +19
over the middle
Toby Payne
vs
Cole Blaylock
TE · MRSH
FS · USA
56.9
42.7
MRSH +14

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
South Alabama
SJayvon Henderson
69.9241/1427
RBKeenan Phillips
60.0110/514
LBSeidrion Langston
59.9293/878
LBTirrell Johnson
56.7359/878
QBBishop Davenport
56.584/308
SDallas Young
56.5573/1427
Marshall
LBJavae Gilmore
81.843/878
CBBoogie Trotter
79.397/1427
QBCarlos Del Rio-Wilson
76.328/308
DBCharles McCartherens
69.6250/1427
WRDe'Andre Tamarez
67.468/777
CBEddie Pleasant III
67.4293/1427

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
South Alabama
opponent
Marshall
home+15.1
UL Monroe#132
+12.2away
home+5.2
App State#103
+7.3home

Projected margin

80% between -13 and 22
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMRSH +4.795% interval: -19.2 to 28.680% interval: -12.7 to 22-13+22USA wins 38%MRSH wins 62%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MRSH 32–25 USAMRSH 28–49 USA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMRSH 32–46 USA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMRSH 35–42 USA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMRSH 39–39 USA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMRSH 42–35 USA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMRSH 46–32 USA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMRSH 49–28 USA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMRSH 53–25 USA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMRSH 56–21 USA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMRSH 25–46 USA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMRSH 28–42 USA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMRSH 32–39 USA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMRSH 35–35 USA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMRSH 39–32 USA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMRSH 42–28 USA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMRSH 46–25 USA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMRSH 49–21 USA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMRSH 53–18 USA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMRSH 21–42 USA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMRSH 25–39 USA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMRSH 28–35 USA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMRSH 32–32 USA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMRSH 35–28 USA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMRSH 39–25 USA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMRSH 42–21 USA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMRSH 46–18 USA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMRSH 49–14 USA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMRSH 18–39 USA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMRSH 21–35 USA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMRSH 25–32 USA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMRSH 28–28 USA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMRSH 32–25 USA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMRSH 35–21 USA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMRSH 39–18 USA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMRSH 42–14 USA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMRSH 46–11 USA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMRSH 14–35 USA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMRSH 18–32 USA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMRSH 21–28 USA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMRSH 25–25 USA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMRSH 28–21 USA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMRSH 32–18 USA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMRSH 35–14 USA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMRSH 39–11 USA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMRSH 42–7 USA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMRSH 11–32 USA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMRSH 14–28 USA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMRSH 18–25 USA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMRSH 21–21 USA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMRSH 25–18 USA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMRSH 28–14 USA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMRSH 32–11 USA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMRSH 35–7 USA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMRSH 39–4 USA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMRSH 7–28 USA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMRSH 11–25 USA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMRSH 14–21 USA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMRSH 18–18 USA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMRSH 21–14 USA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMRSH 25–11 USA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMRSH 28–7 USA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMRSH 32–4 USA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMRSH 35–0 USA neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalUSA +21USA +7MRSH +7MRSH +21MRSH +35margin →