AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#132Away
UL Monroe
0-0 · AVR 26.4
20p
#95Home
Troy
0-0 · AVR 41.7
34p
ULM 16%84% TROY
Spread
TROY -14.4
Total
54
Moneyline
ULM+525TROY-525
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ULM advantageevenTROY advantage →
ULM throw
TROY coverage #45TROY pass rush #124
TROY +33
ULM run
TROY +14
TROY throw
even
TROY run
ULM front #130ULM linebackers #19
ULM +26

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when TROY runs
Jordan Lovett
vs
Noah Flemmings
RB · TROY
MLB · ULM
50.3
86.1
ULM +36
when ULM throws
JP Coulter
vs
Jonathan Pennix
X · ULM
CB1 · TROY
48.1
83.7
TROY +36
over the middle
Bryce Anderson
vs
Joe Lott
TE · ULM
FS · TROY
61.0
62.8
dead even
when TROY throws
TJ Lott
vs
Jabari Tiller
X · TROY
CB1 · ULM
51.9
57.9
ULM +6
off the edge· hunting Armenta
Drew Hutchinson
vs
Makel Green
LT · ULM
EDGE · TROY
41.3
58.5
TROY +17
over the middle
Jackson Worley
vs
Armoni Rue
TE · TROY
FS · ULM
38.1
41.2
ULM +3

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UL Monroe
LBNoah Flemmings
86.119/878
LBMarcus Ross
74.9106/878
LBJaeden Calender
67.4188/878
TEBryce Anderson
61.046/287
DBJabari Tiller
57.9535/1427
WRJP Coulter
48.1373/777
Troy
CBJonathan Pennix
83.758/1427
DBDonnie Smith
78.9102/1427
LBTJ Thompson
68.5169/878
SMarcus Goree Jr.
67.5292/1427
LBLuke Hodge
61.8257/878
WRTJ Lott
51.9264/777

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
UL Monroe
opponent
Troy
home-9.4
Louisiana Tech#94
+2.5home
home-9.3
Southern Miss#93
+2.6home
away-15.1
South Alabama#100
-3.2away
away-12.7
Arkansas State#104
-0.8away
home-11.3
Louisiana#99
-4.4away

Projected margin

80% between -3 and 32
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTROY +14.495% interval: -9.5 to 38.380% interval: -3 to 31.8-3+32ULM wins 16%TROY wins 84%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TROY 35–21 ULMTROY 32–46 ULM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTROY 35–42 ULM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTROY 39–39 ULM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTROY 42–35 ULM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTROY 46–32 ULM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTROY 49–28 ULM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTROY 53–25 ULM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTROY 56–21 ULM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTROY 60–18 ULM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTROY 28–42 ULM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTROY 32–39 ULM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTROY 35–35 ULM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTROY 39–32 ULM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTROY 42–28 ULM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTROY 46–25 ULM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTROY 49–21 ULM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTROY 53–18 ULM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTROY 56–14 ULM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTROY 25–39 ULM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTROY 28–35 ULM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTROY 32–32 ULM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTROY 35–28 ULM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTROY 39–25 ULM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTROY 42–21 ULM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTROY 46–18 ULM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTROY 49–14 ULM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTROY 53–11 ULM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTROY 21–35 ULM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTROY 25–32 ULM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTROY 28–28 ULM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTROY 32–25 ULM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTROY 35–21 ULM neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTROY 39–18 ULM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTROY 42–14 ULM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTROY 46–11 ULM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTROY 49–7 ULM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTROY 18–32 ULM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTROY 21–28 ULM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTROY 25–25 ULM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTROY 28–21 ULM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTROY 32–18 ULM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTROY 35–14 ULM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTROY 39–11 ULM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTROY 42–7 ULM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTROY 46–4 ULM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTROY 14–28 ULM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTROY 18–25 ULM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTROY 21–21 ULM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTROY 25–18 ULM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTROY 28–14 ULM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTROY 32–11 ULM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTROY 35–7 ULM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTROY 39–4 ULM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTROY 42–0 ULM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTROY 11–25 ULM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTROY 14–21 ULM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTROY 18–18 ULM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTROY 21–14 ULM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTROY 25–11 ULM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTROY 28–7 ULM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTROY 32–4 ULM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTROY 35–0 ULM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalULM +14PKTROY +14TROY +28TROY +42margin →