AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 AM
#94Away
Louisiana Tech
0-0 · AVR 42.0
25p
#100Home
South Alabama
0-0 · AVR 39.5
28p
LT 42%58% USA
Spread
USA -3.1
Total
52
Moneyline
LT+141USA-141
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← LT advantageevenUSA advantage →
LT throw
LT +24
LT run
LT +41
USA throw
LT +35
USA run
LT +12

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when USA throws
Anthony Eager
vs
Jaitlin Hampton
X · USA
CB1 · LT
49.2
83.7
LT +34
when USA runs
Keenan Phillips
vs
Jadon Mayfield
RB · USA
MLB · LT
60.0
68.2
LT +8
when LT throws
Jalen Mickens
vs
Jayvon Henderson
X · LT
CB1 · USA
44.3
69.9
USA +26
over the middle
Rod Gibbs
vs
Sam Fongang
TE · USA
FS · LT
43.7
68.5
LT +25
off the edge· hunting Kukuk
Troy Smith III
vs
Emmanuel Waller
LT · LT
EDGE · USA
53.7
46.3
LT +7
over the middle
Eli Finley
vs
Cole Blaylock
TE · LT
FS · USA
46.7
42.7
LT +4

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Louisiana Tech
DBJaitlin Hampton
83.760/1427
DBKam Franklin
75.3152/1427
DBJavari Lockhart
69.1261/1427
DBSam Fongang
68.5274/1427
LBJadon Mayfield
68.2175/878
LBAlonzo Jackson Jr.
61.2265/878
South Alabama
SJayvon Henderson
69.9241/1427
RBKeenan Phillips
60.0110/514
LBSeidrion Langston
59.9293/878
LBTirrell Johnson
56.7359/878
QBBishop Davenport
56.584/308
SDallas Young
56.5573/1427

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Louisiana Tech
opponent
South Alabama
away-2.5
Troy#95
+3.2home
away+9.4
UL Monroe#132
+15.1home
home+2.7
Southern Miss#93
-1.7away
home+4.3
Arkansas State#104
-0.1away
home+0.6
Louisiana#99
-3.7away

Projected margin

80% between -14 and 21
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUSA +3.195% interval: -20.8 to 2780% interval: -14.3 to 20.5-14+21LT wins 42%USA wins 58%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ USA 25–25 LTUSA 21–49 LT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSA 25–46 LT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSA 28–42 LT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSA 32–39 LT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSA 35–35 LT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSA 39–32 LT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSA 42–28 LT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSA 46–25 LT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSA 49–21 LT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSA 18–46 LT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSA 21–42 LT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSA 25–39 LT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSA 28–35 LT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSA 32–32 LT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUSA 35–28 LT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUSA 39–25 LT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSA 42–21 LT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSA 46–18 LT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSA 14–42 LT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSA 18–39 LT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSA 21–35 LT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSA 25–32 LT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSA 28–28 LT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUSA 32–25 LT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSA 35–21 LT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSA 39–18 LT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSA 42–14 LT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSA 11–39 LT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSA 14–35 LT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSA 18–32 LT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSA 21–28 LT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSA 25–25 LT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUSA 28–21 LT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSA 32–18 LT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSA 35–14 LT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSA 39–11 LT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSA 7–35 LT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSA 11–32 LT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSA 14–28 LT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSA 18–25 LT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSA 21–21 LT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUSA 25–18 LT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUSA 28–14 LT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSA 32–11 LT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSA 35–7 LT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSA 4–32 LT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSA 7–28 LT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSA 11–25 LT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSA 14–21 LT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSA 18–18 LT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSA 21–14 LT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSA 25–11 LT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSA 28–7 LT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSA 32–4 LT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSA 0–28 LT neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUSA 4–25 LT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSA 7–21 LT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSA 11–18 LT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSA 14–14 LT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSA 18–11 LT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSA 21–7 LT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSA 25–4 LT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSA 28–0 LT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes70635649423528totalLT +28LT +14PKUSA +14USA +28margin →