CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
LT 48.9%51.1% TROY
Projected margin
TROY by 0.4
Projected total
54
80% outcome range
LT 18 to TROY 19
Win probability
TROY 51.1%

Current team profiles

Louisiana Tech
Troy

When Louisiana Tech has the ball

Passing

LT offense
Higher-ranked profile
LT offense
#47
TROY defense
#71
EPA comparison
0.28
#47
0.15
#71
Pass EPA

Rushing

TROY defense
Higher-ranked profile
LT offense
#105
TROY defense
#56
EPA comparison
0.02
#105
0.02
#56
Rush EPA

Drive success

TROY defense
Higher-ranked profile
LT offense
#100
TROY defense
#64
Success rates
41%
#100
40%
#64
Success rate
More metrics
0.12
#83
0.07
#73
EPA / play
1.40
#6
1.35
#116
Explosiveness
16%
#88
17%
#59
Havoc

When Troy has the ball

Passing

LT defense
Higher-ranked profile
LT defense
#41
TROY offense
#101
EPA comparison
0.07
#41
0.11
#101
Pass EPA

Rushing

TROY offense
Higher-ranked profile
LT defense
#93
TROY offense
#45
EPA comparison
0.10
#93
0.16
#45
Rush EPA

Drive success

LT defense
Higher-ranked profile
LT defense
#45
TROY offense
#79
Success rates
38%
#45
43%
#79
Success rate
More metrics
0.05
#63
0.13
#78
EPA / play
1.38
#123
1.26
#47
Explosiveness
21%
#9
17%
#114
Havoc

Current key players

Louisiana Tech
QBTrey Kukuk
468 yds · 3 TD · 1 INT
79.475/729
TEJoshua Brantley
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Run blocking
60.0
Penalties
0
83.516/1017
RBDylone Brooks
169 yds · 2 TD · 10.6 YPC
81.065/1044
LBKolbe Fields
30 tkl · 4.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
83.1
Coverage
75.4
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
24
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
1
81.067/1796
LBZander Hayes
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
78.3
Coverage
60.0
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
79.689/1796
DBDamien Richard II
0 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.3
Coverage
72.2
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
79.373/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Dane Benedix · WRout · 2026-10-08

    Benedix is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Trey Kukuk · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Kukuk is battling with an ankle injury, and it has yet to be established if he will play against the Warhawks on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jaden Miller · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Miller is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Warhawks on Saturday, October 17th.

Troy
QBGoose Crowder
822 yds · 7 TD · 4 INT
60.7263/729
SJustin Powe
26 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
84.7
Coverage
78.7
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
37
Passer rating allowed
118.1
Missed tackles
3
80.952/2969
RBGavin Griffin
259 yds · 0 TD · 4.8 YPC
77.6124/1044
DBDonnie Smith
14 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
58.0
Coverage
67.2
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
31
Passer rating allowed
100.7
Missed tackles
5
73.3262/2969
SJamarion Keyes
17 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
78.5
Coverage
68.9
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
75
Passer rating allowed
94.3
Missed tackles
1
72.9285/2969
LBTJ Thompson
20 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
81.2
Coverage
67.7
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
23
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
72.3282/1796
Availability reports · 2
  • Jackson Worley · TEout · 2026-10-03

    Worley has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Fabian Rogosch · TEQues. · 2026-10-06

    Rogosch is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Louisiana on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

LT
TROY
vs
Offense
79.4
#59 of 138
QB
60.7
#130 of 138
73.7
#88 of 138
RB
76.6
#59 of 138
70.4
#76 of 138
WR
67.0
#121 of 138
83.5
#16 of 138
TE
69.3
#68 of 138
62.4
#120 of 138
OL
61.6
#123 of 138
Defense
67.6
#128 of 138
DL
64.1
#138 of 138
78.9
#26 of 138
LB
69.1
#112 of 138
72.6
#64 of 138
DB
72.0
#71 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Louisiana Tech
opponent
Troy
H+4.5
USM#139
+21.0H
H+1.0
UL#92
-8.8A
H+3.9
ARST#91
-3.7A
A-2.7
GASO#102
+0.4H
A+11.4
ULM#163
+14.5H
A-5.2
USA#96
-7.4A