AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#94Away
Louisiana Tech
0-0 · AVR 42.0
25p
#95Home
Troy
0-0 · AVR 41.7
27p
LT 43%57% TROY
Spread
TROY -2.5
Total
52
Moneyline
LT+132TROY-132
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← LT advantageevenTROY advantage →
LT throw
TROY coverage #45TROY pass rush #124
TROY +8
LT run
LT +24
TROY throw
LT +55
TROY run
LT +38

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when TROY throws
TJ Lott
vs
Jaitlin Hampton
X · TROY
CB1 · LT
51.9
83.7
LT +32
when LT throws
Jalen Mickens
vs
Jonathan Pennix
X · LT
CB1 · TROY
44.3
83.7
TROY +39
when TROY runs
Jordan Lovett
vs
Jadon Mayfield
RB · TROY
MLB · LT
50.3
68.2
LT +18
off the edge· hunting Kilcrease
Patrick Screws Jr.
vs
Judd Rouyea
LT · TROY
EDGE · LT
33.0
83.2
LT +50
off the edge· hunting Kukuk
Troy Smith III
vs
Makel Green
LT · LT
EDGE · TROY
53.7
58.5
TROY +5
over the middle
Eli Finley
vs
Joe Lott
TE · LT
FS · TROY
46.7
62.8
TROY +16

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Louisiana Tech
DBJaitlin Hampton
83.760/1427
DBKam Franklin
75.3152/1427
DBJavari Lockhart
69.1261/1427
DBSam Fongang
68.5274/1427
LBJadon Mayfield
68.2175/878
LBAlonzo Jackson Jr.
61.2265/878
Troy
CBJonathan Pennix
83.758/1427
DBDonnie Smith
78.9102/1427
LBTJ Thompson
68.5169/878
SMarcus Goree Jr.
67.5292/1427
LBLuke Hodge
61.8257/878
WRTJ Lott
51.9264/777

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Louisiana Tech
opponent
Troy
home+4.3
Arkansas State#104
-0.8away
home+0.6
Louisiana#99
-4.4away
away+9.4
UL Monroe#132
+14.4home
away+1.5
Georgia Southern#117
+6.4home
away-3.1
South Alabama#100
-3.2away
home+2.7
Southern Miss#93
+2.6home

Projected margin

80% between -15 and 20
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTROY +2.595% interval: -21.4 to 26.480% interval: -14.9 to 19.8-15+20LT wins 43%TROY wins 57%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TROY 25–25 LTTROY 21–49 LT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTROY 25–46 LT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTROY 28–42 LT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTROY 32–39 LT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTROY 35–35 LT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTROY 39–32 LT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTROY 42–28 LT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTROY 46–25 LT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTROY 49–21 LT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTROY 18–46 LT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTROY 21–42 LT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTROY 25–39 LT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTROY 28–35 LT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTROY 32–32 LT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTROY 35–28 LT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTROY 39–25 LT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTROY 42–21 LT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTROY 46–18 LT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTROY 14–42 LT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTROY 18–39 LT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTROY 21–35 LT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTROY 25–32 LT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTROY 28–28 LT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTROY 32–25 LT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTROY 35–21 LT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTROY 39–18 LT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTROY 42–14 LT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTROY 11–39 LT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTROY 14–35 LT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTROY 18–32 LT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTROY 21–28 LT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTROY 25–25 LT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTROY 28–21 LT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTROY 32–18 LT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTROY 35–14 LT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTROY 39–11 LT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTROY 7–35 LT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTROY 11–32 LT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTROY 14–28 LT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTROY 18–25 LT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTROY 21–21 LT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTROY 25–18 LT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTROY 28–14 LT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTROY 32–11 LT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTROY 35–7 LT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTROY 4–32 LT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTROY 7–28 LT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTROY 11–25 LT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTROY 14–21 LT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTROY 18–18 LT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTROY 21–14 LT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTROY 25–11 LT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTROY 28–7 LT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTROY 32–4 LT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTROY 0–28 LT neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTROY 4–25 LT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTROY 7–21 LT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTROY 11–18 LT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTROY 14–14 LT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTROY 18–11 LT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTROY 21–7 LT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTROY 25–4 LT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTROY 28–0 LT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes70635649423528totalLT +28LT +14PKTROY +14TROY +28margin →