AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#100Away
South Alabama
0-0 · AVR 39.5
27p
#93Home
Southern Miss
0-0 · AVR 42.2
29p
USA 46%54% USM
Spread
USM -1.7
Total
56
Moneyline
USA+118USM-118
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← USA advantageevenUSM advantage →
USA throw
USM +28
USA run
even
USM throw
USM +10
USM run
USM +14

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when USA throws
Anthony Eager
vs
Ishmael Ibraheem
X · USA
CB1 · USM
49.2
95.9
USM +47
when USA runs
Keenan Phillips
vs
Melvin Spriggs
RB · USA
MLB · USM
60.0
70.3
USM +10
when USM throws
Mario Sanders
vs
Jayvon Henderson
X · USM
CB1 · USA
52.8
69.9
USA +17
when USM runs
Robert Briggs
vs
Seidrion Langston
RB · USM
MLB · USA
52.7
59.9
USA +7
over the middle
Rod Gibbs
vs
MaLik Caswell
TE · USA
FS · USM
43.7
60.1
USM +16

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
South Alabama
SJayvon Henderson
69.9241/1427
RBKeenan Phillips
60.0110/514
LBSeidrion Langston
59.9293/878
LBTirrell Johnson
56.7359/878
QBBishop Davenport
56.584/308
SDallas Young
56.5573/1427
Southern Miss
CBIshmael Ibraheem
95.94/1427
DBKolby Peavy
72.4184/1427
LBMelvin Spriggs
70.3140/878
DBCannon McClain
64.0385/1427
LBMathis Haygood
60.8270/878
SMaLik Caswell
60.1479/1427

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
South Alabama
opponent
Southern Miss
home+3.1
Louisiana Tech#94
-2.7away
home+3.2
Troy#95
-2.6away
home+15.1
UL Monroe#132
+9.3away
away-3.7
Louisiana#99
+0.5home
away-0.1
Arkansas State#104
+4.1home
away-4.2
Tulane#88
-4.9away

Projected margin

80% between -16 and 19
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUSM +1.795% interval: -22.2 to 25.680% interval: -15.7 to 19.1-16+19USA wins 46%USM wins 54%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ USM 28–28 USAUSM 25–53 USA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSM 28–49 USA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSM 32–46 USA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSM 35–42 USA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSM 39–39 USA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSM 42–35 USA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSM 46–32 USA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSM 49–28 USA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSM 53–25 USA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSM 21–49 USA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSM 25–46 USA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSM 28–42 USA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSM 32–39 USA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSM 35–35 USA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSM 39–32 USA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSM 42–28 USA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSM 46–25 USA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSM 49–21 USA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSM 18–46 USA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSM 21–42 USA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSM 25–39 USA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSM 28–35 USA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSM 32–32 USA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSM 35–28 USA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUSM 39–25 USA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSM 42–21 USA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSM 46–18 USA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSM 14–42 USA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSM 18–39 USA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSM 21–35 USA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSM 25–32 USA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSM 28–28 USA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUSM 32–25 USA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSM 35–21 USA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSM 39–18 USA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSM 42–14 USA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSM 11–39 USA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSM 14–35 USA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSM 18–32 USA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSM 21–28 USA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSM 25–25 USA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSM 28–21 USA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUSM 32–18 USA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSM 35–14 USA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSM 39–11 USA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSM 7–35 USA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSM 11–32 USA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSM 14–28 USA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSM 18–25 USA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSM 21–21 USA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSM 25–18 USA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSM 28–14 USA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSM 32–11 USA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSM 35–7 USA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSM 4–32 USA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSM 7–28 USA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSM 11–25 USA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSM 14–21 USA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSM 18–18 USA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSM 21–14 USA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSM 25–11 USA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSM 28–7 USA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSM 32–4 USA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalUSA +28USA +14PKUSM +14USM +28margin →