AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 12:00 PM
#77Away
East Carolina
0-0 · AVR 47.2
7p
#12Home
Alabama
0-0 · AVR 74.0
50p
ECU 0%100% ALA
Spread
ALA -43.2
Total
57
Moneyline
ECU—ALA—
Against the market
ALA +14.7line ALA -28.5

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ECU advantageevenALA advantage →
ECU throw
ECU protection #25ALA pass rush #67
ALA +21
ECU run
ALA +4
ALA throw
ALA QB #85ALA WR #15
ECU +12
ALA run
ECU +19

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when ALA throws
Ryan Coleman-Williams
vs
Kevon Merrell Jr.
X · ALA
CB1 · ECU
78.5
74.1
ALA +4
when ECU runs
Michael Allen
vs
Yhonzae Pierre
RB · ECU
MLB · ALA
58.2
87.5
ALA +29
off the edge· hunting Griffis
Karson Jones
vs
Jeremiah Beaman
LT · ECU
EDGE · ALA
69.2
73.4
ALA +4
when ECU throws
Brock Spalding
vs
Bray Hubbard
X · ECU
CB1 · ALA
52.8
87.6
ALA +35
when ALA runs
Daniel Hill
vs
DJ Johnson Jr.
RB · ALA
MLB · ECU
64.3
73.7
ECU +9
over the middle
Kanen Hamlett
vs
Zabien Brown
TE · ECU
FS · ALA
41.9
83.7
ALA +42

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
East Carolina
DBKevon Merrell Jr.
74.1163/1427
LBDJ Johnson Jr.
73.7115/878
LBCrews Law
70.2143/878
DBZyeir Gamble
66.6319/1427
DBDerrion Horsley
65.2352/1427
QBMitch Griffis
59.771/308
Alabama
DBBray Hubbard
87.623/1427
LBYhonzae Pierre
87.513/878
DBKeon Sabb
84.845/1427
DBDijon Lee Jr.
83.956/1427
LBJah-Marien Latham
82.836/878
WRRyan Coleman-Williams
78.526/777

also out — Alabama running back (RB), Ezavier Crowell (RB), RB (RB), another Alabama RB (RB), unknown (RB), Alabama Freshman Cornerback (CB), top recruit (CB), 5-star defensive back (DB) +9 more

Projected margin

80% between 25 and 60
-7-3+3+7+14PKALA +43.2MKT95% interval: 14 to 6980% interval: 25 to 60+25+60ECU wins 0%ALA wins 100%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ALA 49–7 ECUALA 46–32 ECU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesALA 49–28 ECU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesALA 53–25 ECU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesALA 56–21 ECU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesALA 60–18 ECU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesALA 63–14 ECU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesALA 67–11 ECU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesALA 70–7 ECU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesALA 74–4 ECU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesALA 42–28 ECU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesALA 46–25 ECU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesALA 49–21 ECU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesALA 53–18 ECU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesALA 56–14 ECU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesALA 60–11 ECU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesALA 63–7 ECU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesALA 67–4 ECU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesALA 70–0 ECU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesALA 39–25 ECU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesALA 42–21 ECU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesALA 46–18 ECU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesALA 49–14 ECU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesALA 53–11 ECU neighborhood · ~3.7% of outcomesALA 56–7 ECU neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesALA 60–4 ECU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesALA 63–0 ECU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)ALA 35–21 ECU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesALA 39–18 ECU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesALA 42–14 ECU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesALA 46–11 ECU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesALA 49–7 ECU neighborhood · ~3.8% of outcomesALA 53–4 ECU neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesALA 56–0 ECU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)ALA 32–18 ECU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesALA 35–14 ECU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesALA 39–11 ECU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesALA 42–7 ECU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesALA 46–4 ECU neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesALA 49–0 ECU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)ALA 28–14 ECU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesALA 32–11 ECU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesALA 35–7 ECU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesALA 39–4 ECU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesALA 42–0 ECU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)ALA 25–11 ECU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesALA 28–7 ECU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesALA 32–4 ECU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesALA 35–0 ECU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalALA +14ALA +28ALA +42ALA +56ALA +70margin →