AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 7:45 PM
#108Away
Florida Atlantic
0-0 · AVR 36.6
12p
#25Home
Florida
0-0 · AVR 66.3
47p
FAU 1%99% FLA
Spread
FLA -35.5
Total
59
Moneyline
FAU—FLA—
Against the market
FLA +8.0line FLA -27.5

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← FAU advantageevenFLA advantage →
FAU throw
even
FAU run
FLA +31
FLA throw
FLA QB #101FLA WR #33
even
FLA run
FLA +39

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Veltkamp
Vincent Fiacable
vs
Emmanuel Oyebadejo
LT · FAU
EDGE · FLA
71.7
90.7
FLA +19
when FLA runs
Jadan Baugh
vs
Joseph Sipp Jr.
RB · FLA
MLB · FAU
80.9
71.4
FLA +10
when FAU runs
Kaden Shields-Dutton
vs
Myles Graham
RB · FAU
MLB · FLA
60.5
86.1
FLA +26
when FAU throws
Easton Messer
vs
Bryce Thornton
X · FAU
CB1 · FLA
67.8
72.0
FLA +4
when FLA throws
Vernell Brown III
vs
Jay Crable
X · FLA
CB1 · FAU
71.4
67.8
FLA +4
over the middle
Lacota Dippre
vs
Damarius McGhee
TE · FLA
FS · FAU
73.7
57.3
FLA +16

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Florida Atlantic
LBJoseph Sipp Jr.
71.4127/878
QBCaden Veltkamp
68.345/308
WREaston Messer
67.865/777
DBJay Crable
67.8283/1427
WRDominique Henry
66.376/777
DBJosh Roberts
60.8463/1427
Florida
LBMyles Graham
86.118/878
LBJayden Woods
82.837/878
RBJadan Baugh
80.921/514
TELacota Dippre
73.75/287
SBryce Thornton
72.0189/1427
WRVernell Brown III
71.445/777

also out — Graham Mertz

Projected margin

80% between 16 and 53
-7-3+3+7+14PKFLA +35.5MKT95% interval: 6 to 6280% interval: 16 to 53+16+53FAU wins 1%FLA wins 99%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ FLA 46–11 FAUFLA 42–35 FAU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFLA 46–32 FAU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFLA 49–28 FAU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFLA 53–25 FAU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFLA 56–21 FAU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFLA 60–18 FAU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFLA 63–14 FAU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFLA 67–11 FAU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFLA 70–7 FAU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFLA 39–32 FAU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFLA 42–28 FAU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFLA 46–25 FAU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFLA 49–21 FAU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesFLA 53–18 FAU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesFLA 56–14 FAU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesFLA 60–11 FAU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFLA 63–7 FAU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFLA 67–4 FAU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFLA 35–28 FAU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFLA 39–25 FAU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFLA 42–21 FAU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFLA 46–18 FAU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesFLA 49–14 FAU neighborhood · ~3.8% of outcomesFLA 53–11 FAU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesFLA 56–7 FAU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFLA 60–4 FAU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFLA 63–0 FAU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFLA 32–25 FAU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFLA 35–21 FAU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFLA 39–18 FAU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFLA 42–14 FAU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesFLA 46–11 FAU neighborhood · ~3.8% of outcomesFLA 49–7 FAU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesFLA 53–4 FAU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFLA 56–0 FAU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)FLA 28–21 FAU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFLA 32–18 FAU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFLA 35–14 FAU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFLA 39–11 FAU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesFLA 42–7 FAU neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesFLA 46–4 FAU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesFLA 49–0 FAU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)FLA 25–18 FAU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFLA 28–14 FAU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFLA 32–11 FAU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFLA 35–7 FAU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFLA 39–4 FAU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesFLA 42–0 FAU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)FLA 21–14 FAU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFLA 25–11 FAU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFLA 28–7 FAU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFLA 32–4 FAU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFLA 35–0 FAU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalFLA +7FLA +21FLA +35FLA +49FLA +63margin →