CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 7:45 PM ET
Forecast win probability
FAU 10.0%90.0% FLA
Projected margin
FLA by 20.5
Projected total
54
80% outcome range
FLA 0 to FLA 41
Win probability
FLA 90.0%
FinalFAU 21 · FLA 66model had +20.5, off by 24.5

Current team profiles

Florida Atlantic
Florida

When Florida Atlantic has the ball

Passing

FAU offense
Higher-ranked profile
FAU offense
#60
FLA defense
#98
EPA comparison
0.26
#60
0.25
#98
Pass EPA

Rushing

FLA defense
Higher-ranked profile
FAU offense
#72
FLA defense
#63
EPA comparison
0.10
#72
0.03
#63
Rush EPA

Drive success

FAU offense
Higher-ranked profile
FAU offense
#53
FLA defense
#83
Success rates
45%
#53
42%
#83
Success rate
More metrics
0.18
#59
0.09
#82
EPA / play
1.21
#89
1.25
#85
Explosiveness
15%
#74
18%
#30
Havoc

When Florida has the ball

Passing

FLA offense
Higher-ranked profile
FAU defense
#103
FLA offense
#19
EPA comparison
0.27
#103
0.43
#19
Pass EPA

Rushing

FLA offense
Higher-ranked profile
FAU defense
#112
FLA offense
#35
EPA comparison
0.15
#112
0.19
#35
Rush EPA

Drive success

FLA offense
Higher-ranked profile
FAU defense
#63
FLA offense
#30
Success rates
40%
#63
48%
#30
Success rate
More metrics
0.18
#117
0.28
#22
EPA / play
1.47
#137
1.23
#71
Explosiveness
16%
#72
12%
#29
Havoc

Current key players

Florida Atlantic
QBCaden Veltkamp
1425 yds · 12 TD · 2 INT
85.539/729
DBWallace Foster IV
4 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
67.8
Coverage
84.8
Targets allowed
5
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
0.0
Missed tackles
1
83.037/2969
DBTyclean Luman
4 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
75.7
Missed tackles
1
77.8101/2969
WRKelby Valsin
40 rec · 512 yds · 5 TD
75.9111/2069
DBJK Johnson
8 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
45.5
Coverage
82.2
Targets allowed
5
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
19
Passer rating allowed
51.3
Missed tackles
3
75.2186/2969
WREaston Messer
30 rec · 438 yds · 3 TD
74.8127/2069
Florida
QBAaron Philo
1114 yds · 8 TD · 2 INT
80.170/729
LBKJ Ford
3 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
96.1
Coverage
44.6
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
12
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
1
90.112/1796
WRJustin Williams
2 rec · 21 yds · 0 TD
89.49/2069
RBJadan Baugh
613 yds · 11 TD · 6.5 YPC
88.617/1044
WRVernell Brown III
17 rec · 271 yds · 2 TD
87.814/2069
TEMicah Jones
1 rec · 6 yds · 1 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
68.8
Run blocking
76.0
Penalties
0
83.715/1017
Availability reports · 6
  • Kelvin Jimenez · RBout · 2026-09-05

    Jimenez is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Davian Groce · WRout · 2026-09-07

    Groce is sidelined with a back injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

  • V. Brown III · WRQues. · 2026-10-05

    Brown III is nursing a knee injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will play against South Carolina on Saturday.

  • Eric Singleton Jr. · WRprobable · 2026-09-28

    Singleton Jr is dealing with an ankle injury, but he is expected to be active against Missouri on Saturday.

  • London Montgomery · RBprobable · 2026-10-09

    Montgomery is dealing with an undisclosed injury, but he is likely to suit up against the South Carolina on Sunday.

  • Bailey Stockton · WRprobable · 2026-10-02

    Stockton is dealing with a back injury, and he is likely to be available against Missouri on Saturday, 3rd October.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

FAU
FLA
vs
Offense
85.5
#36 of 138
QB
80.1
#56 of 138
73.0
#97 of 138
RB
85.5
#9 of 138
74.1
#42 of 138
WR
84.5
#1 of 138
58.9
#128 of 138
TE
83.7
#15 of 138
70.4
#50 of 138
OL
73.7
#23 of 138
Defense
75.3
#51 of 138
DL
82.7
#5 of 138
65.1
#134 of 138
LB
81.7
#12 of 138
75.6
#27 of 138
DB
70.3
#91 of 138
Common opponents