AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 7:00 PM
#125Away
Missouri State
0-0 · AVR 30.2
8p
#8Home
Texas A&M
0-0 · AVR 76.5
45p
MOST 1%99% TA&M
Spread
TA&M -37.6
Total
53
Moneyline
MOST—TA&M—
Against the market
MOST +3.9line TA&M -41.5

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MOST advantageevenTA&M advantage →
MOST throw
MOST WR #45MOST protection #125
TA&M +52
MOST run
MOST backs #83
TA&M +68
TA&M throw
TA&M WR #1TA&M protection #120
TA&M +43
TA&M run
TA&M line #120TA&M backs #40
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MOST throws
Jmariyae Robinson
vs
Marcus Ratcliffe
X · MOST
CB1 · TA&M
76.8
80.6
TA&M +4
when MOST runs
Ramone Green Jr.
vs
Daymion Sanford
RB · MOST
MLB · TA&M
61.8
82.7
TA&M +21
when TA&M throws
Mario Craver
vs
Dylan Dixson
X · TA&M
CB1 · MOST
85.5
53.2
TA&M +32
when TA&M runs
Rueben Owens II
vs
Jared Lloyd
RB · TA&M
MLB · MOST
74.1
62.0
TA&M +12
over the middle
Jeron Askren
vs
Adam Graham
TE · MOST
FS · TA&M
59.4
70.8
TA&M +11
over the middle
Houston Thomas
vs
Khalil Anderson
TE · TA&M
FS · MOST
57.9
42.9
TA&M +15

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Missouri State
WRJmariyae Robinson
76.828/777
LBJared Lloyd
62.0256/878
RBRamone Green Jr.
61.893/514
TEJeron Askren
59.458/287
LBCooper Roy
55.4383/878
SDylan Dixson
53.2670/1427
Texas A&M
WRMario Craver
85.513/777
LBDaymion Sanford
82.739/878
SMarcus Ratcliffe
80.688/1427
QBMarcel Reed
80.221/308
LBRay Coney
78.869/878
CBRickey Gibson III
78.4108/1427

also out — Target After Missing, Former Texas A&M OL (OL), star safety (S), Chace Sims (DL), DT Sims, McGuire (OL), Myles (WR), Player 1 +3 more

Projected margin

80% between 18 and 55
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTA&M +37.6MKT95% interval: 7 to 6380% interval: 18 to 55+18+55MOST wins 1%TA&M wins 99%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TA&M 46–11 MOSTTA&M 42–35 MOST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTA&M 46–32 MOST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTA&M 49–28 MOST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTA&M 53–25 MOST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTA&M 56–21 MOST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTA&M 60–18 MOST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTA&M 63–14 MOST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTA&M 67–11 MOST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTA&M 70–7 MOST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTA&M 39–32 MOST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTA&M 42–28 MOST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTA&M 46–25 MOST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTA&M 49–21 MOST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTA&M 53–18 MOST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTA&M 56–14 MOST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTA&M 60–11 MOST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTA&M 63–7 MOST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTA&M 67–4 MOST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTA&M 35–28 MOST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTA&M 39–25 MOST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTA&M 42–21 MOST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTA&M 46–18 MOST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTA&M 49–14 MOST neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTA&M 53–11 MOST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTA&M 56–7 MOST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTA&M 60–4 MOST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTA&M 63–0 MOST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTA&M 32–25 MOST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTA&M 35–21 MOST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTA&M 39–18 MOST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTA&M 42–14 MOST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTA&M 46–11 MOST neighborhood · ~3.7% of outcomesTA&M 49–7 MOST neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesTA&M 53–4 MOST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTA&M 56–0 MOST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)TA&M 28–21 MOST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTA&M 32–18 MOST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTA&M 35–14 MOST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTA&M 39–11 MOST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTA&M 42–7 MOST neighborhood · ~3.7% of outcomesTA&M 46–4 MOST neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesTA&M 49–0 MOST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)TA&M 25–18 MOST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTA&M 28–14 MOST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTA&M 32–11 MOST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTA&M 35–7 MOST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTA&M 39–4 MOST neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTA&M 42–0 MOST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)TA&M 21–14 MOST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTA&M 25–11 MOST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTA&M 28–7 MOST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTA&M 32–4 MOST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTA&M 35–0 MOST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalTA&M +7TA&M +21TA&M +35TA&M +49TA&M +63margin →