CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 7:00 PM ET
#131Away
Missouri State
0-0 · AVR 48.4
0
Final
#15Home
Texas A&M
0-0 · AVR 68.7
50
Forecast win probability
MOST 3.2%96.8% TA&M
Projected margin
TA&M by 29.6
Projected total
55
80% outcome range
TA&M 9 to TA&M 50
Win probability
TA&M 96.8%
FinalMOST 0 · TA&M 50model had +29.6, off by 20.4

Current team profiles

Missouri State
Texas A&M

When Missouri State has the ball

Passing

TA&M defense
Higher-ranked profile
MOST offense
#92
TA&M defense
#55
EPA comparison
0.13
#92
0.10
#55
Pass EPA

Rushing

TA&M defense
Higher-ranked profile
MOST offense
#92
TA&M defense
#37
EPA comparison
0.05
#92
-0.03
#37
Rush EPA

Drive success

TA&M defense
Higher-ranked profile
MOST offense
#108
TA&M defense
#44
Success rates
39%
#108
37%
#44
Success rate
More metrics
0.07
#100
0.00
#39
EPA / play
1.22
#78
1.28
#96
Explosiveness
17%
#106
17%
#43
Havoc

When Texas A&M has the ball

Passing

MOST defense
Higher-ranked profile
MOST defense
#122
TA&M offense
#125
EPA comparison
0.36
#122
-0.01
#125
Pass EPA

Rushing

TA&M offense
Higher-ranked profile
MOST defense
#112
TA&M offense
#70
EPA comparison
0.15
#112
0.11
#70
Rush EPA

Drive success

TA&M offense
Higher-ranked profile
MOST defense
#134
TA&M offense
#91
Success rates
50%
#134
42%
#91
Success rate
More metrics
0.25
#131
0.04
#109
EPA / play
1.07
#13
1.08
#130
Explosiveness
14%
#95
15%
#77
Havoc

Current key players

Missouri State
QBSkyler Locklear
699 yds · 4 TD · 1 INT
73.6126/729
CBJoel Boamah
15 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
68.9
Coverage
81.2
Targets allowed
18
Rec allowed
10
Yards allowed
127
Passer rating allowed
54.6
Missed tackles
1
80.950/2969
WRIsaiah Myers
17 rec · 342 yds · 2 TD
80.749/2069
RBRamone Green Jr.
186 yds · 2 TD · 4.8 YPC
76.0152/1044
SJerrick Martin
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
63.7
Coverage
76.8
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
0
75.3185/2969
TECash Pomeroy
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Run blocking
77.2
Penalties
0
74.648/1017
Availability reports · 3
  • James Rexroat · TEQues. · 2026-10-09

    Rexroat is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Kennesaw State on Wednesday.

  • Makai Cope · WRQues. · 2026-09-20

    Cope is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face Mustangs on Saturday, September 26th.

  • Josh Joyner · RBQues. · 2026-10-09

    Joyner is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face Kennesaw State on Wednesday.

Texas A&M
QBMarcel Reed
908 yds · 6 TD · 4 INT
59.6301/729
RBKJ Edwards
181 yds · 2 TD · 6.5 YPC
89.910/1044
TEKiotti Armstrong
2 rec · 62 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
71.7
Run blocking
70.0
Penalties
1
82.020/1017
LBTamarion Watkins
7 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.2
Coverage
65.7
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
5
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
77.4129/1796
WRMario Craver
23 rec · 235 yds · 2 TD
73.9150/2069
LBDaymion Sanford
13 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
73.8
Coverage
63.5
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
3
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
71.1326/1796
Availability reports · 4
  • Terry Bussey · WRout · 2026-09-21

    Bussey is tending to an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Tiger Riden Jr. · RBout · 2026-08-27

    Riden Jr. has suffered an undisclosed injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.

  • Madden Williams · WRout · 2026-09-06

    Williams has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.

  • Blake Ivy · OGQues. · 2026-10-10

    Ivy is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against Citadel on Saturday.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

MOST
TA&M
vs
Offense
73.6
#88 of 138
QB
59.6
#134 of 138
74.7
#75 of 138
RB
80.2
#36 of 138
68.9
#94 of 138
WR
67.6
#114 of 138
74.6
#38 of 138
TE
82.0
#20 of 138
73.1
#27 of 138
OL
71.7
#42 of 138
Defense
66.7
#132 of 138
DL
80.7
#13 of 138
68.4
#118 of 138
LB
72.8
#80 of 138
71.1
#82 of 138
DB
66.8
#128 of 138
Common opponents