AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 4:00 PM
#11Away
Oklahoma
0-0 · AVR 74.3
23p
#13Home
Michigan
0-0 · AVR 73.3
26p
OU 41%59% MICH
Spread
MICH -3.1
Total
49
Moneyline
OU+141MICH-141
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← OU advantageevenMICH advantage →
OU throw
MICH +6
OU run
MICH linebackers #95
even
MICH throw
even
MICH run
OU +10

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Underwood
Nathan Efobi
vs
Taylor Wein
LT · MICH
EDGE · OU
88.1
96.5
OU +8
off the edge· hunting Mateer
Caleb Nitta
vs
John Henry Daley
LT · OU
EDGE · MICH
74.3
107.8
MICH +33
when MICH runs
Jordan Marshall
vs
Kip Lewis
RB · MICH
MLB · OU
80.1
92.3
OU +12
when MICH throws
Andrew Marsh
vs
Peyton Bowen
X · MICH
CB1 · OU
84.8
86.1
dead even
when OU throws
Parker Livingstone
vs
Smith Snowden
X · OU
CB1 · MICH
71.1
88.1
MICH +17
over the middle
Zack Marshall
vs
Reggie Powers III
TE · MICH
FS · OU
61.4
75.8
OU +14

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Oklahoma
LBKip Lewis
92.36/878
LBOwen Heinecke
91.78/878
DBPeyton Bowen
86.134/1427
DBEli Bowenprobable
83.063/1427
DBCourtland Guillory
82.468/1427
QBJohn Mateerprobable
71.835/308

also out — Michael Fasusi, Jaren Kanak (TE), Oklahoma OL (OL), Maikkula (C), Jake Maikkula (OL)

Michigan
CBSmith Snowden
88.120/1427
WRAndrew Marsh
84.815/777
QBBryce Underwood
84.012/308
WRJJ Buchanan
82.318/777
CBJyaire Hill
80.687/1427
RBJordan Marshall
80.122/514

also out — QB (QB), Former Michigan sacks leader, RB (RB), Ace Hamilton (OL), Andrew Babalola (OL), Freshman Lineman (OL), Michigan Football Freshman Lineman (OL), Michigan freshman +5 more

Projected margin

80% between -14 and 21
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMICH +3.195% interval: -20.8 to 2780% interval: -14.3 to 20.5-14+21OU wins 41%MICH wins 59%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MICH 25–25 OUMICH 21–49 OU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesMICH 25–46 OU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMICH 28–42 OU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMICH 32–39 OU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMICH 35–35 OU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMICH 39–32 OU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMICH 42–28 OU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMICH 46–25 OU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMICH 49–21 OU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMICH 18–46 OU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMICH 21–42 OU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMICH 25–39 OU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMICH 28–35 OU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMICH 32–32 OU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMICH 35–28 OU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMICH 39–25 OU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMICH 42–21 OU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMICH 46–18 OU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMICH 14–42 OU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMICH 18–39 OU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMICH 21–35 OU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMICH 25–32 OU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMICH 28–28 OU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMICH 32–25 OU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMICH 35–21 OU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMICH 39–18 OU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMICH 42–14 OU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMICH 11–39 OU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMICH 14–35 OU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMICH 18–32 OU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMICH 21–28 OU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMICH 25–25 OU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMICH 28–21 OU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMICH 32–18 OU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMICH 35–14 OU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMICH 39–11 OU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMICH 7–35 OU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMICH 11–32 OU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMICH 14–28 OU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMICH 18–25 OU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMICH 21–21 OU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMICH 25–18 OU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMICH 28–14 OU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMICH 32–11 OU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMICH 35–7 OU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMICH 4–32 OU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMICH 7–28 OU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMICH 11–25 OU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMICH 14–21 OU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMICH 18–18 OU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMICH 21–14 OU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMICH 25–11 OU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMICH 28–7 OU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMICH 32–4 OU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMICH 0–28 OU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesMICH 4–25 OU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMICH 7–21 OU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMICH 11–18 OU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMICH 14–14 OU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMICH 18–11 OU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMICH 21–7 OU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMICH 25–4 OU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMICH 28–0 OU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes70635649423528totalOU +28OU +14PKMICH +14MICH +28margin →