AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 4:00 PM
#43Away
Arizona State
0-0 · AVR 57.5
18p
#8Home
Texas A&M
0-0 · AVR 76.5
39p
ASU 8%92% TA&M
Spread
TA&M -20.7
Total
56
Moneyline
ASU+1145TA&M-1145
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ASU advantageevenTA&M advantage →
ASU throw
ASU WR #16ASU protection #115
TA&M +35
ASU run
TA&M +78
TA&M throw
TA&M WR #1TA&M protection #120
ASU +9
TA&M run
TA&M line #120TA&M backs #40
ASU +28

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when TA&M throws
Mario Craver
vs
Ashton Stamps
X · TA&M
CB1 · ASU
85.5
85.2
dead even
when ASU throws
Omarion Miller
vs
Marcus Ratcliffe
X · ASU
CB1 · TA&M
73.4
80.6
TA&M +7
when TA&M runs
Rueben Owens II
vs
Martell Hughes
RB · TA&M
MLB · ASU
74.1
67.7
TA&M +6
when ASU runs
Demarius Robinson
vs
Daymion Sanford
RB · ASU
MLB · TA&M
47.5
82.7
TA&M +35
over the middle
Houston Thomas
vs
Rodney Bimage Jr.
TE · TA&M
FS · ASU
57.9
70.2
ASU +12
over the middle
Anthony Miller
vs
Adam Graham
TE · ASU
FS · TA&M
51.9
70.8
TA&M +19

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Arizona State
DBAshton Stamps
85.243/1427
DBJessiah McGrew
78.0115/1427
WROmarion Miller
73.438/777
SAdrian Wilson
73.3172/1427
WRRaiden Vines-Bright
70.951/777
LBMartell Hughes
67.7182/878

also out — key defensive lineman (DL), Nigel Pringle (CB), Z. Fiaseu (LB)

Texas A&M
WRMario Craver
85.513/777
LBDaymion Sanford
82.739/878
SMarcus Ratcliffe
80.688/1427
QBMarcel Reed
80.221/308
LBRay Coney
78.869/878
CBRickey Gibson III
78.4108/1427

also out — Target After Missing, Former Texas A&M OL (OL), star safety (S), Chace Sims (DL), DT Sims, McGuire (OL), Myles (WR), Player 1 +3 more

Projected margin

80% between 3 and 38
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTA&M +20.795% interval: -3.2 to 44.680% interval: 3.3 to 38.1+3+38ASU wins 8%TA&M wins 92%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TA&M 39–18 ASUTA&M 35–42 ASU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTA&M 39–39 ASU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTA&M 42–35 ASU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTA&M 46–32 ASU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTA&M 49–28 ASU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTA&M 53–25 ASU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTA&M 56–21 ASU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTA&M 60–18 ASU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTA&M 63–14 ASU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTA&M 32–39 ASU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTA&M 35–35 ASU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTA&M 39–32 ASU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTA&M 42–28 ASU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTA&M 46–25 ASU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTA&M 49–21 ASU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTA&M 53–18 ASU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTA&M 56–14 ASU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTA&M 60–11 ASU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTA&M 28–35 ASU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTA&M 32–32 ASU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTA&M 35–28 ASU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTA&M 39–25 ASU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTA&M 42–21 ASU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTA&M 46–18 ASU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTA&M 49–14 ASU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTA&M 53–11 ASU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTA&M 56–7 ASU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTA&M 25–32 ASU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTA&M 28–28 ASU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTA&M 32–25 ASU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTA&M 35–21 ASU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTA&M 39–18 ASU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTA&M 42–14 ASU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTA&M 46–11 ASU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTA&M 49–7 ASU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTA&M 53–4 ASU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTA&M 21–28 ASU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTA&M 25–25 ASU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTA&M 28–21 ASU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTA&M 32–18 ASU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTA&M 35–14 ASU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTA&M 39–11 ASU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTA&M 42–7 ASU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTA&M 46–4 ASU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTA&M 49–0 ASU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTA&M 18–25 ASU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTA&M 21–21 ASU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTA&M 25–18 ASU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTA&M 28–14 ASU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTA&M 32–11 ASU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTA&M 35–7 ASU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTA&M 39–4 ASU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTA&M 42–0 ASU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)TA&M 14–21 ASU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTA&M 18–18 ASU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTA&M 21–14 ASU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTA&M 25–11 ASU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTA&M 28–7 ASU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTA&M 32–4 ASU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTA&M 35–0 ASU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalASU +7TA&M +7TA&M +21TA&M +35TA&M +49margin →