CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 3:30 PM ET
#47Away
Florida State
1-1 · AVR 65.5
36
Final
#6Home
Alabama
2-0 · AVR 78.6
50
Forecast win probability
FSU 16.7%83.3% ALA
Projected margin
ALA by 14.3
Projected total
53
80% outcome range
FSU 6 to ALA 34
Win probability
ALA 83.3%
FinalFSU 36 · ALA 50model had +14.3, off by 0.3

Current team profiles

Florida State
Alabama

When Florida State has the ball

Passing

ALA defense
Higher-ranked profile
FSU offense
#72
ALA defense
#55
EPA comparison
0.22
#72
0.10
#55
Pass EPA

Rushing

Same rank
FSU offense
#8
ALA defense
#8
EPA comparison
0.28
#8
-0.17
#8
Rush EPA

Drive success

ALA defense
Higher-ranked profile
FSU offense
#57
ALA defense
#30
Success rates
45%
#57
35%
#30
Success rate
More metrics
0.22
#40
-0.06
#17
EPA / play
1.38
#11
1.37
#122
Explosiveness
15%
#74
20%
#22
Havoc

When Alabama has the ball

Passing

ALA offense
Higher-ranked profile
FSU defense
#84
ALA offense
#22
EPA comparison
0.19
#84
0.42
#22
Pass EPA

Rushing

ALA offense
Higher-ranked profile
FSU defense
#112
ALA offense
#9
EPA comparison
0.15
#112
0.27
#9
Rush EPA

Drive success

ALA offense
Higher-ranked profile
FSU defense
#88
ALA offense
#15
Success rates
42%
#88
50%
#15
Success rate
More metrics
0.16
#110
0.33
#7
EPA / play
1.31
#106
1.32
#25
Explosiveness
16%
#68
16%
#94
Havoc

Current key players

Florida State
QBAshton Daniels
1111 yds · 6 TD · 6 INT
77.794/729
RBOusmane Kromah
477 yds · 5 TD · 5.9 YPC
87.322/1044
LBBlake Nichelson
3 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
74.1
Coverage
64.7
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
5
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
75.3175/1796
DBAntonio Cromartie Jr.
4 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
62.7
Coverage
74.9
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
74.0234/2969
LBKaron Maycock
4 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
77.4
Coverage
64.8
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
10
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
71.4312/1796
WRJayvan Boggs
13 rec · 257 yds · 1 TD
71.1225/2069
Availability reports · 4
  • Samuel Singleton Jr. · RBout · 2026-09-21

    Singleton is managing a lower body injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Tae'Shaun Gelsey · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Gelsey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Hurricanes on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Devin Carter · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Carter is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Hurricanes on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Gavin Markey · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Markey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Hurricanes on Saturday, October 17th.

Alabama
QBKeelon Russell
1414 yds · 11 TD · 2 INT
92.54/729
RBEJ Crowell
204 yds · 3 TD · 7.8 YPC
90.38/1044
LBLuke Metz
36 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.1
Coverage
84.7
Pressures
7
Pass-rush snaps
25
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
87.223/1796
TEMarshall Pritchett
7 rec · 148 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
73.8
Run blocking
74.2
Penalties
1
82.817/1017
WRNoah Rogers
3 rec · 55 yds · 0 TD
81.844/2069
LBDesmond Umeozulu
6 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
77.3
Coverage
62.2
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
30
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
78.798/1796
Availability reports · 2
  • Josh Ford · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ford is nursing with a arm injury, and it is unclear if he will be active against Volunteers on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Aubrey Walker · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Walker is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Volunteers on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

FSU
ALA
vs
Offense
77.7
#71 of 138
QB
92.5
#3 of 138
82.2
#22 of 138
RB
84.4
#12 of 138
68.3
#102 of 138
WR
76.3
#29 of 138
61.0
#112 of 138
TE
82.8
#17 of 138
66.4
#85 of 138
OL
71.7
#38 of 138
Defense
67.7
#127 of 138
DL
79.7
#17 of 138
72.0
#87 of 138
LB
81.5
#14 of 138
68.8
#114 of 138
DB
72.1
#69 of 138
Common opponents