AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 7:30 PM
#30Away
Florida State
0-0 · AVR 62.6
24p
#12Home
Alabama
0-0 · AVR 74.0
34p
FSU 25%76% ALA
Spread
ALA -10.1
Total
58
Moneyline
FSU+308ALA-308
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← FSU advantageevenALA advantage →
FSU throw
FSU WR #3FSU protection #74
ALA +16
FSU run
ALA +15
ALA throw
ALA QB #85ALA WR #15
even
ALA run
FSU +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when FSU throws
Duce Robinson
vs
Bray Hubbard
X · FSU
CB1 · ALA
87.7
87.6
dead even
when FSU runs
Quintrevion Wisner
vs
Yhonzae Pierre
RB · FSU
MLB · ALA
68.8
87.5
ALA +19
when ALA throws
Ryan Coleman-Williams
vs
Nehemiah Chandler
X · ALA
CB1 · FSU
78.5
73.6
ALA +5
when ALA runs
Daniel Hill
vs
Blake Nichelson
RB · ALA
MLB · FSU
64.3
79.5
FSU +15
over the middle
Landen Thomas
vs
Zabien Brown
TE · FSU
FS · ALA
59.4
83.7
ALA +24
off the edge· hunting Sperry
Xavier Chaplin
vs
Jeremiah Beaman
LT · FSU
EDGE · ALA
68.0
73.4
ALA +5

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Florida State
WRDuce Robinson
87.74/777
WRMicahi Danzy
86.98/777
LBBlake Nichelson
79.560/878
LBChris Jones
73.9113/878
DBNehemiah Chandler
73.6168/1427
DBAshlynd Barker
71.8195/1427

also out — Daniel Lyons, Malachi Marshall (QB), DB Transfer, Karson Hobbs, Devin Carter (WR), FSU freshman wide receiver (WR), Mike Norvell (WR), Dexter Carter Speaks +1 more

Alabama
DBBray Hubbard
87.623/1427
LBYhonzae Pierre
87.513/878
DBKeon Sabb
84.845/1427
DBDijon Lee Jr.
83.956/1427
LBJah-Marien Latham
82.836/878
WRRyan Coleman-Williams
78.526/777

also out — Alabama running back (RB), Ezavier Crowell (RB), RB (RB), another Alabama RB (RB), unknown (RB), Alabama Freshman Cornerback (CB), top recruit (CB), 5-star defensive back (DB) +9 more

Projected margin

80% between -7 and 28
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKALA +10.195% interval: -13.8 to 3480% interval: -7.3 to 27.5-7+28FSU wins 25%ALA wins 76%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ALA 32–25 FSUALA 28–49 FSU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesALA 32–46 FSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesALA 35–42 FSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesALA 39–39 FSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesALA 42–35 FSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesALA 46–32 FSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesALA 49–28 FSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesALA 53–25 FSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesALA 56–21 FSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesALA 25–46 FSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesALA 28–42 FSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesALA 32–39 FSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesALA 35–35 FSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesALA 39–32 FSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesALA 42–28 FSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesALA 46–25 FSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesALA 49–21 FSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesALA 53–18 FSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesALA 21–42 FSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesALA 25–39 FSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesALA 28–35 FSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesALA 32–32 FSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesALA 35–28 FSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesALA 39–25 FSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesALA 42–21 FSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesALA 46–18 FSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesALA 49–14 FSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesALA 18–39 FSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesALA 21–35 FSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesALA 25–32 FSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesALA 28–28 FSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesALA 32–25 FSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesALA 35–21 FSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesALA 39–18 FSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesALA 42–14 FSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesALA 46–11 FSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesALA 14–35 FSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesALA 18–32 FSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesALA 21–28 FSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesALA 25–25 FSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesALA 28–21 FSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesALA 32–18 FSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesALA 35–14 FSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesALA 39–11 FSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesALA 42–7 FSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesALA 11–32 FSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesALA 14–28 FSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesALA 18–25 FSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesALA 21–21 FSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesALA 25–18 FSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesALA 28–14 FSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesALA 32–11 FSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesALA 35–7 FSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesALA 39–4 FSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesALA 7–28 FSU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesALA 11–25 FSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesALA 14–21 FSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesALA 18–18 FSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesALA 21–14 FSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesALA 25–11 FSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesALA 28–7 FSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesALA 32–4 FSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesALA 35–0 FSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalFSU +21FSU +7ALA +7ALA +21ALA +35margin →