AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 11:00 PM
#25Away
Florida
0-0 · AVR 66.3
25p
#31Home
Auburn
0-0 · AVR 62.1
24p
FLA 54%46% AUB
Spread
FLA -1.2
Total
49
Moneyline
FLA-116AUB+116
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← FLA advantageevenAUB advantage →
FLA throw
FLA QB #101FLA WR #33
AUB +14
FLA run
even
AUB throw
AUB protection #51
AUB +17
AUB run
FLA +12

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when FLA runs
Jadan Baugh
vs
Xavier Atkins
RB · FLA
MLB · AUB
80.9
93.4
AUB +12
when AUB runs
Jeremiah Cobb
vs
Myles Graham
RB · AUB
MLB · FLA
78.7
86.1
FLA +7
when AUB throws
Keshaun Singleton
vs
Bryce Thornton
X · AUB
CB1 · FLA
86.7
72.0
AUB +15
off the edge· hunting Brown
Jacob Strand
vs
Emmanuel Oyebadejo
LT · AUB
EDGE · FLA
53.1
90.7
FLA +38
when FLA throws
Vernell Brown III
vs
Fred Gaskin III
X · FLA
CB1 · AUB
71.4
66.3
FLA +5
over the middle
Lacota Dippre
vs
Sylvester Smith-Reed
TE · FLA
FS · AUB
73.7
57.9
FLA +16

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Florida
LBMyles Graham
86.118/878
LBJayden Woods
82.837/878
RBJadan Baugh
80.921/514
TELacota Dippre
73.75/287
SBryce Thornton
72.0189/1427
WRVernell Brown III
71.445/777

also out — Graham Mertz

Auburn
LBXavier Atkins
93.44/878
WRKeshaun Singleton
86.79/777
WRJeremiah Koger
83.116/777
QBByrum Brown
81.319/308
RBJeremiah Cobb
78.729/514
LBColeman Granberry
78.082/878

also out — Fly, Tai Buster (OL), tight end (TE), Auburn Linebacker Likely, Auburn edge rusher (DL), Auburn linebacker (LB), J.J. Faulk (EDGE), Auburn RB (RB) +3 more

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Florida
opponent
Auburn
home-2.8
Ole Miss#14
-11.5away
neutral-14.6
Georgia#3
-20.8away
home+1.8
Vanderbilt#23
-1.9home

Projected margin

80% between -19 and 16
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKFLA +1.295% interval: -25.1 to 22.780% interval: -18.6 to 16.2-19+16FLA wins 54%AUB wins 46%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ AUB 25–25 FLAAUB 21–49 FLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAUB 25–46 FLA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAUB 28–42 FLA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAUB 32–39 FLA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAUB 35–35 FLA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesAUB 39–32 FLA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAUB 42–28 FLA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAUB 46–25 FLA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAUB 49–21 FLA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAUB 18–46 FLA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAUB 21–42 FLA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAUB 25–39 FLA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAUB 28–35 FLA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesAUB 32–32 FLA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesAUB 35–28 FLA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesAUB 39–25 FLA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAUB 42–21 FLA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAUB 46–18 FLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAUB 14–42 FLA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAUB 18–39 FLA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAUB 21–35 FLA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesAUB 25–32 FLA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesAUB 28–28 FLA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesAUB 32–25 FLA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAUB 35–21 FLA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAUB 39–18 FLA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAUB 42–14 FLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAUB 11–39 FLA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAUB 14–35 FLA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAUB 18–32 FLA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAUB 21–28 FLA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesAUB 25–25 FLA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesAUB 28–21 FLA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesAUB 32–18 FLA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAUB 35–14 FLA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAUB 39–11 FLA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAUB 7–35 FLA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAUB 11–32 FLA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAUB 14–28 FLA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesAUB 18–25 FLA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesAUB 21–21 FLA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesAUB 25–18 FLA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAUB 28–14 FLA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAUB 32–11 FLA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAUB 35–7 FLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAUB 4–32 FLA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAUB 7–28 FLA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAUB 11–25 FLA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAUB 14–21 FLA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesAUB 18–18 FLA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesAUB 21–14 FLA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesAUB 25–11 FLA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAUB 28–7 FLA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAUB 32–4 FLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAUB 0–28 FLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAUB 4–25 FLA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAUB 7–21 FLA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAUB 11–18 FLA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAUB 14–14 FLA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesAUB 18–11 FLA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAUB 21–7 FLA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAUB 25–4 FLA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAUB 28–0 FLA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes70635649423528totalFLA +28FLA +14PKAUB +14AUB +28margin →